January Snowstorm

Yes writing was on the wall three days ago for those who wanted to look...same as last ten years...Winter is always 10 days away.... BUT, Storm Emma hit here back in 2018 on 28th February and delivered the most prolonged snowfall I've seen in 50 years. Indeed Ireland shut down for 2 days under red snow warnings!! So on that thought I bid you a happy new year

You would wonder if we just stuck with the Met Office long range and forgot looking at the models would we all be much happier. The reality is the models are cropping changing every day beyond 6 or 7 days. Years ago I used to think we had the heads up on the general population with regard to incoming cold. I don't think that anymore because 9 times out of 10 the models get it wrong. Extraordinary in the eve of 2024 that computers still can't forecast the weather beyond a week!!!!! (Something they could do 30 years ago)

Maybe we'll get a good day 10 chart. We've been getting them for the last 2 months...

Jet over the top on both charts

Ecm 850s at 216hrs. I'm frozen just looking at it

Am not a fan but your point is fair enough. They can indeed work out in our favour. I just personally dislike them because I find them boring

Would agree. Older folk here have seen how uk highs are good for just one thing burning up Winter time. Let's hope the other models are better, time to hold fire and let them run

Here it is for next Sunday, full week from today and uppers still above 0 in Ireland. Slightly cooler over UK. Mainly dry

The Icon is going for a UK high on this run, with heights much lower towards Greenland than previous one Any proper cold is way out East

The control at 240hrs. Most likely wrong at this point, but heights dissolving to our North and the jet gaining ground South of Greenland.

Very good, clear outlier there tbh

Here's the uppers for the control at 216hours. No better than minus 4 over a swath of the South. Early January, previous generations would be laughing at us drooling over such mediocrity

It's not bad, but nothing to write home about either. Weakish heights moving North. Here it is

A uk high centred to the North is the favoured option for now heading into second week of Jan. Could be quite cold by day and very frosty. It's not what I want but understand some prefer it to wet. Still chances it will end up more favourably but for now that's the honest analysis.

You make a lot of good, valid points yet you are mainly silenced by the coldies who just want to shout snow from every angle. It's a pity really because analysis of all possible outcomes helps in predicting the route forward. I'm mainly positive on cold winning out this evening but we are a long way from it being a done deal

After a week of dodgy charts we finally seem to be getting there!! A good ECM and it's time to ramp!!

It's not unusually wet for mid Winter. Nor is it very stormy despite all the hype. Indeed even though we are flying through storm names we've had little interest in what's being thrown

The gfs control is an improvement on its previous run. Potential from here but also worth noting that uppers are very poor for early Jan A northeasterly feed and still not proper cold yet

Indeed but a few days ago that high was showing over Greenland whereas now it's off the coast of Scotland. That's a significant move in the wrong direction even though on paper it would still be cold

Not really the gfs runs four times a day as we know and it hasn't come up with one decent 10 day chart in the last week. That's a fairly solid trend that a cold spell is not counting down

Wherever floats your boat as they say. A build-up of 3 weeks to end with a uk high and some frost doesn't impress me

If this is a good chart our standards have dropped a lot over the years

Mutton dressed as lamb is where we are at compared to a few days back. The major SSW has been a flop and a minor warming now means we might get a uk high giving frosty cold for about 5 days. 3 weeks we've been chasing this and at least it will dry out doesn't really cut the mustard. The weather will make fools of us every year. On the up side it's only late December so we have time on our side...

For what it's worth I think you both add a huge amount to the forum and yes your opinion is valid and makes sense. I think we are all a bit downbeat at the moment but we are still very close to something special developing!

So where are we tonight imo: - Still no agreement on a route forward. Noteworthy that not one run in the last 2 days has delivered an Easterly or Northerly even in far FI. That's a worry! - The strat warming pro's have gone quiet? Why because things have backed away from what they were showing 3 days ago. Still a minor type warming but will that do the business. Who knows, but the models are not excited. - Cold continues out East and in fairness is ready to pounce if the charts improve. We can only hope they do. - I don't buy the comments it's just a delay to cold etc. Be patient etc. We wouldn't be on here unless we had buckets of patience lol. I've heard it all over the years where cold gets shoved out and out until hey presto its April! Folks the reality is by the 8th January most will likely not have seen snow. Indeed most will have seen little frost. More or less half of Winter burnt up. Let's remain positive that the Strat developments will get stronger again. What choice do we have...