January Snowstorm

The main news today really is the barlett high is being eroded with heights falling over Europe. This very much puts us in the game for Christmas!! All up for grabs really the next 48hrs should make the big day a bit clearer!!

Interesting that the beeb weather for the week she actually mentions it getting colder next week and possibly milder again on Christmas day. All I can say wtf, they can forecast 14 days ahead now!? Big improvement in the models this evening, the trend is our friend and he has a sack full of hampers

It is much better than this mornings run though potential wise!!

I'm surprised at some of the older guys on here this morning. Christmas day is 14 days away and we do not have a clue what the weather will be like! The majority of cold spells show up around 168 to 192hrs, literally out of the blue. So the outlook is woeful but just upto the 20th. Thursday morning will be the first glimpse of what Christmas will be like imo

Again we can work with tonight's gfs run. Not as good as 12s but plenty potential!!

The gfs control at 228hrs. You can see the pv has moved completely to Siberias side and deep cold is about to be unleashed!! Very good charts from gfs tonight.

Anything after 240hrs is irrelevant!! The key charts are 192 to 240hrs. That's where you look for improvement and try to see do other models pick up this trend. I'm unsure why the gfs runs beyond 240, its meaningless

Just a few things to keep in mind: - Gfs historically was always better at picking up on Greenland heights. It would be no surprise that gfs would be the first to see it! We should be looking for the changes to occur between 192hrs and 240hrs max! Every chart after 240hrs doesn't deserve a comment, it will be totally inaccurate. - As others have mentioned the background signals are strong for heights rises up North! Let's see where ECM goes, for now even slight ridging to Greenland at 192 hrs is what we need. Baby steps ...

This is looking excellent from the gfs, only 5 days before Christmas!!! Are the models finally seeing the background signals!

I think we'd all take this chart five days before Christmas!! Loaded with potential as it ridges towards Greenland.

The old reverse psychology trick that everyone is on this morning is working wonders!! The 06z is very different, look at all that cold to our East!! The chase is back

That 246 chart, which is obviously deep FI, has plenty of potential!! Opens up all sorts of possibilities as we into Christmas

Here comes the Greenland high!! Next few frames could be good

Not much talk about the warmth predicted next weekend. Whatever happens at Christmas, the reliable timeframe is that it will turn exceptionally mild

Things looking much better this morning for Christmas time with gfs and ecm control showing a cold Northerly likely setting up

Ecm and gfs are identical tonight at 240hrs. These meandering highs are easier for the models to predict. Let's hope they are both wrong and something different shows up in the morning.. afterall it's 17 days to Christmas yet!!

I understand back ground signals are looking positive, but we've been down this road before. I don't trust is tbh. Looking at 18z just coming out, you really couldn't draw a worse chart week before Christmas

As you rightly say they rarely call a cold outlook. They did in 2010 and were spot on !! The experienced on here know that a change in models usually occurs at 168hrs not out in la la land. In fact you would have to question is there any real benefit in looking at +300hr charts...

Good point and it's deeper at 48hrs than previous run!! Worth watching especially for my location Though it seems to fill on its approach

The ecm is definitely fighting back with the cold to our East more or less staying in situ! This is very important as we head towards Christmas with cold air ready to feed West. I've a sneaky feeling the charts are going to improve very soon! Ecm @240 hrs shows Europe still cold, perhaps very cold at the surface

A couple of things worth commenting on at this stage: 1 - Almost all of the Long range forecasts are already bust. Early December is panning out very different to what was forecast. Are we in uncharted territory with GW etc and it's likely affects. 2 - Depth of cold over Europe. Have we ever seen that depth of cold so early in the season. I certainly don't recall it in the Internet age. With such warming going on across the world how in earth is it happening?! We've had a couple of near misses and very odd starts to Winter over the last 3 years. Massive potential that faded. Is it a case that we were unlucky and that luck is now coming good. Below ECM's musings at 240hrs. Bitter bitter cold out East! Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99584-model-output-discussion-into-winter/?do=findComment&comment=4964900

A couple of things worth commenting on at this stage: 1 - Almost all of the Long range forecasts are already bust. Early December is panning out very different to what was forecast. Are we in uncharted territory with GW etc and it's likely affects. 2 - Depth of cold over Europe. Have we ever seen that depth of cold so early in the season. I certainly don't recall it in the Internet age. With such warming going on across the world how in earth is it happening?! We've had a couple of near misses and very odd starts to Winter over the last 3 years. Massive potential that faded. Is it a case that we were unlucky and that luck is now coming good. Below ECM's musings at 240hrs. Bitter bitter cold out East!

The gfs control also upgrades the 850s for next few days. It's becoming quite the cold spell now and the depth of cold has been underestimated if gfs is right!! Look at this over Ireland by next Tuesday, bitterly cold even still and evidence of home grown cold!!

Interesting how the 850s got a lot colder than what was first forecast for Thursday. It just goes to prove how sea temps don't matter if you get the right flow off a cold continent. The models underestimated the cold!!

Guys wake me up when something happens!! Instead of a snowfest it's turning into a snoozefest