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Everything posted by January Snowstorm
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Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
January Snowstorm replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Massive upgrade at 144hrs on Icon. Greenland heights are back stronger than ever!! -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
January Snowstorm replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I certainly think it's all to play for this evening and that the 12s will be the best yet!! Usually the Icon is a forerunner as to what to expect and that was really good this morning. Also interesting with the wind quite often Northerly next week is this possible volcano over Iceland. Ash cloud could well head this way if it does erupt -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
January Snowstorm replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It was obvious last night! Still lots of potential but we need a couple of upgrades -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
January Snowstorm replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
For our coastal location we actually do very well. In an Easterly (if its cold enough) we pick up showers off the sea. In a Northwesterly we also benefit with showers just reaching us. So for our Southerly location we box above our weight -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
January Snowstorm replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The control run is a nudge colder to be fair! If these charts were in a months time they would certainly produce the goods. Heights still not great towards Greenland though.. -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
January Snowstorm replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The 528 line only sinks South at 216hrs! For the bulk of next week it's up over Scotland -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
January Snowstorm replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
10 days from now and those uppers won't do even for the Scottish Highlands. Dream synoptics maybe but the facts say different imo -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
January Snowstorm replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes but there's a trend this evening for me to shorten the Easterly, a weaker flow and hence coldest uppers struggle to make it across. The Greenland high is much weaker and the yellows are gone -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
January Snowstorm replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The reload is actually much weaker and the Atlantic is primed and raring to go. Not a brilliant run if you want the cold to hang on -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
January Snowstorm replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The great charts keep coming, but there's no hiding the fact that it's also quite messy. I dunno slightly preferred last night's cleaner route to cold! -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
January Snowstorm replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
As you were from the 18z Icon. If anything the cold pool to our East has even deeper purples!! So very impressive for late November -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
January Snowstorm replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I think the main issue this evening is the uppers have modified slightly higher. Enough to mean rain/sleet rather than snow. Perhaps the high sea temperatures are a factor! Plenty time for upgrades, we need a cleaner feed and less messy shortwaves -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
January Snowstorm replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
January Snowstorm replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Charts settling on a colder option, if not even wintry! Equally it is right to say that the gfs has backed away from its raging Easterly and now shows a messier and slower path to cold. Still brilliant, but worth noting all the same Slower as in Wednesday now rather than Tuesday -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
January Snowstorm replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It did happen in 2010 where the charts kept upgrading! I haven't seen it since though -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
January Snowstorm replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
JMA, going full throttle for a Greenland high!! Something definitely brewing, but the favourite option is the slower Greenland high rather than what gfs is showing imo -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
January Snowstorm replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
January Snowstorm replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
January Snowstorm replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
January Snowstorm replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Are we on the cusp of 2010 again!? Remember then, when charts kept upgrading instead of downgrading. -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
January Snowstorm replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
January Snowstorm replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Winter 2023/24 - Discussions & Forecasts
January Snowstorm replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
I'd say a lot of them are being rewritten as we speak!! A stormy start to December will have to be deleted -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
January Snowstorm replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The Icon has upgraded significantly this evening! As I said earlier with the GEM and Jma looking good the ECM is very isolated now!! -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
January Snowstorm replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Ecm is on its own tonight. Both GEM and JMA also provide a Scandi High and are actually very cold. Indeed they look full of wintry potential!!