Matty88

I'm getting the sense that tomorrow is looking good for a decent 1-2 hour spell of moderate snow for most in the evening/night hours. The 12z has slightly beefed up the front, but I sense further adjustments could be made in the next run. Thursday is looking tasty - albeit not looking like an 'epic' fall but certainly a 2-3 inch event as it stands. On the negative side - there is a sense of bullying going on in here which I hope the mods stamp out/delete certain posts responsible, this forum is an open place for all - there a few in here that feel they 'own the place'. Absolutely not on.

Looks like your trip to Norwich on Friday morning could be a snowy one... but my advise is to keep updated. There's certainly a medium percentage probability of 2-3 inches of snow Thursday night/Friday morning and I would think Norwich could be in that bracket

I think most need to try and bank on the bulk of precipitation arriving after dark for it to really have a chance of sticking. As for the precipitation itself - its looking extremely marginal in nature and this will also play true for snowfall by the looks of things - there are hints of some additional features coming into play that could pep up the precipitation. I think a few may well be disappointed tomorrow but on the other hand a few may be surprised. It'll depend very much on the location and intensity of any precipitation It's going to be a fascinating day of weather... I like those sort of days! Gearing myself up for the worst at the moment (ie light snizzle that doesn't stick!!)...

I'm looking forward to April/May when we can move on from all this SSW hitting the trop or 'Downwelling Progression', Nobody on here really know whether this is or will have an effect. There should be a separate thread for those that want to have a guess at that game! Anyway, the 06z run is a classic Jan/Feb set up of cold to the north with mild to the south trying to push up - can guarantee none of the charts have a true grasp of the exact low location/strength of the low, but if the southerly track of the jet wins out expect some classic big snow falls for many next week - nobody can post on here with any confidence where that snow line will be at this stage - it could be from Scotland to Lands End!!

Damp mild is here until Sunday then all change back to cold, but massive uncertainty for next week - models this morning show it turning mild from Weds/Thurs, but also the risk of it staying cold with substantial snow, all to play for again as usual! Hope we all get the snow we deserve soon

Bar a string of relatively cold runs the charts have been flip flopping like no tomorrow - Its been a poor showing from all charts this season. I'm not overly concerned by this mornings run even if many show the low being blown up (and yes this would be a bad scenario). I think they are all for the bin - but if they still show the same in the next 2-3 runs then fair play!

We've been here before with this 12z - some on here will need hormonal control tablets if we take these too seriously!! Patience will pay off I think. Granted the scope is narrowing but still - the snow trigger is there and ready for next week from Sunday onwards, and I'm sure there is still scope for positive as well as negative adjustments - as always ! Looking Marginal as it stands....

Wouldn't pay too much attention to that, its swings and roundabouts at the moment - the meto are struggling to keep track of it. Blame the Canada vortex! Charts flip flopping like anything on a daily basis but generally trending unfavourably, but we'll have to see until nearer the time. Wouldn't be surprised to see another meto update tomorrow downplaying snow potential

The feature due to hit tomorrow AM could be of interest to some - keeping an eye on it myself. Looks likely to be brushing into East Anglia (especially Norfolk) - likely just going to be sleet and rain showers but a few could get a sprinkling. Pleased to also report Ely had its first little flurry last night - but no settling. Frustratingly - there seemed to be a virtual barrier literally a few miles to my west where all the precipitation hit and just disappeared/got blown to pieces!! Grrrr. A slightly frustrating evening it has to be said.

Is it me or is the jet posing a bit of a risk to forthcoming cold potential? It seems to have nudged a bit further east on the last few runs - could either mean we are on the 'dividing line' and get lucky with sliding lows or, as has happened recently, it ends up pushing all the fun further east again.... too close for my liking - so keeping my expectations low for now - until nearer the time at least !

Raining in Longstanton, Cambridgeshire, currently. Goes to show how marginal this front is!

Latest GFS Precip update looks promising - precip certainly forecast to be more potent, even the snow depth forecast looks good for EA/South East with a few CM's in places. Not sure how accurate this will be though - probably not very!

Some transient settling possible in the heavier bursts, unless some showers follow on and arrive in the evening then unlikely to amount to much/anything. Significant settling snow was never forecast - just the outside chance of anything up to 1cm and some slushy deposits !

High chance of some wet snow in the showers by the looks of things - keeping my fingers crossed! Slightly unlucky with the timing though was hoping this front would pass through nearer/during evening which would increase settling snow chances somewhat, but we'll see...

On the up side - yes no frigid and sustained Easterly on the horizon but the charts (including this mornings 06z) do still indicate quite a bit of potential for disturbance mixed with marginal cold which could deliver a dollop or 2 of decent snow falls for some lucky places.... sometimes this is even better for snowfall than an easterly for certain locations (but not all granted). Cambridgeshire happens to be one of those locations better off with this scenario ! Some good chart watching to be done on precipitation forecasts I feel once we get into the slightly colder uppers....

Weird - it was below zero widely here at 10pm last night but by 7am this morning the frost had all but disappeared and the car was showing +3 - didn't even feel that cold! Strange how it goes sometimes

Charts indicating its looking on the changeable side for the next 7 days or so now - with average to slightly below average temps but nothing too extreme. Likely to deliver some wintry showers to most in this region I'd have thought especially Wednesday - better than we've seen for sure but nothing to write home about. Longer term - looks like it could either go extreme or stay on the mobile zonal side for the foreseeable as it stands. A long way off but looking good next week if the low sinks South and opens up a North Easterly - albeit again not really delivering earth shattering cold but still enough for some snowfall should it come off

A few models are hinting at the possibility of some settling snow tonight - is this being considered? The GFS even hints at some 'significant' accumlations further west of EA/Northampton. Unlikely anything too notable but maybe worth watching? Wouldn't be surprised to see a late meto warning issued this eve if precip peps up enough for it to turn to snow

Noticed a light flurry this morning in Ely - nice to see, the first proper flakes of this winter season. No settling though but looking like tonight is going to be the first proper freeze up of winter. The good thing is most of the charts are showing signs of optimism now for snow potential and cold so we will have to see, especially into next week, with an emphasis on easterly blocking currently taking place. Interesting times to be a chart watcher that's for sure! Looks like another 'beast' can't be ruled out.... maybe this time with more atlantic disturbance and more snow for those that weren't so lucky last time... but we'll have to see. Still relatively low to moderate probabilities of a significant cold event, could end up far less exciting yet!

This mornings run doesn't really show anything of real interest from any of the models, but there is definitely a wintry flavour to proceedings, albeit nothing substantial/to write home about. Overall, as it stands, a bit disappointing. However I'm sure things can and will change going forward - all eyes on February. We need that easterly to set up (for those that want cold and snow in this region)

This is why you should take anything anyone forecasts or tells you with a pinch of salt and go with the here and now! I'm inclined too to jump on the game over side of the fence, with all the cold air shooting into Easten Europe's extremeties due to the firing jet out of Canada, but I look at the date - 15th January, tells me there's still time for some changes. As I've said before, the Meto do have access to some good models but they ultimately aren't that much more clued up than we are with nailing the longer term foreseeable on the head. Some on here religiously study and worshop their forecasts however... it is funny.

I think it'll be time soon to move away from the SSW hype and focus on the here and now, if you ask me. You've got bitter cold in Canada stoking a roaring jet exiting Canada, which in turn helps maintain the 'blocking' high pressure in the east Atlantic, which in turn sends all the major cold shots down the Eastern Extremities of Europe... I would be glad to eat my words in 2 weeks time don't get me wrong. I say all this, we've got very much standard fare winter weather on the cards which can bring with it its own goodies, albeit a high snow melt rate during the day with +5 to +6. Its better than we've had thats for sure but not a major event...

They'll look stupid if in 14 days most of England doesn't see a single flake ! Having been off for a few days, catching up with the charts - nothing has moved on much from last week in terms of solid cold potential - unless I'm missing something? I really don't get what all the metoffice and BBC, other television forecaster ramps are all about. Yes the potential will increase - but still to a relatively low potential at this stage. This country really is crazy

Nicely put - yes the set up going forward for the next few weeks will leave us snow free I'd imagine. I'd be interested to know North American/Canadian conditions during existing severe Cold Spells - especially if they simultaneously experienced cold frigid conditions as is expected in the coming weeks? It remains to be seen just how much this could effect our chances

Yes they have (I think?) - and every man and his dog practically jumped on the 'severe 1974 cold spell on its way' band wagon, only for them to be scratching their heads at the moment as nothing seems to be coming off! A combination of cold sliding into Eastern/Southern Europe causing a southerly flow up to the UK and then Canada/North America due to get a severe cold lobe in the coming weeks (which in turn fires up the jet) is working against us, certainly in the short term (but maybe also in the long term)