Matty88

Positive signs for people further east to enjoy some action tonight going by the progress of the Northern France cells... As is always the case with these storm setups - forecast trajectory’s and severe threat locations can change, and tonight poses a real chance of that

Whilst the charts would support that - I’m inclined to think those small cells have a chance of becoming beasts as they had north. Not only that, the more isolated convection away from the main band may well pose the more severe threat with large hail etc, so not yet worth writing those off

Indeed, the models just a week ago suggested we'd be in an unsettled and cool phase by now! Far as I'm concerned the pessimistic models can keep their 'firming up' until the end of summer and we can continue with this fine and settled weather

Put it simply: Models playing havoc again. Whilst I have faith in most of them I'm inclined to say it still could go either way - but as it stands: Mostly settled over the next 7-10 days esp further South an East you are, albeit with SLIGHTLY suppressed temperatures (18-23). If you believe the models though that could all change... but we made that mistake in February didn't we!! It's another classic will it won't it, even catching out the Meto I'm afraid

After all the hype and excited forecasters on both NW, Beeb and Meto about this record heatwave - I'm loving it! Grey cloud, 15 degrees, nice and cool - might get up to 25 on Saturday **for one day only** , no thundery breakdown imminent. Role on August & September on the up side, glad I booked to go abroad this year - I think that's one decision that has paid off massively!!

Just a spell of moderate rain to report from Ely, no thunder or lightning this time. Feeling ultra sultry and muggy this morning though but that's it for any storm potential for now... I feel the high cloud and rain front somewhat dampened most of our chances yesterday by capping any initiation. I felt a lot of forecasters (NW and Meto included) jumped on the 'record heat and thunderstorms next week' band wagon early on when in fact there were a lot of variables since it was first forecast to now, and so it has happened that the main bulk of heat will be stalled in France and we will just be getting 'snippets' of it. Still - looking quite settled for the next week and into next week which will be nice, with some pleasant warm days! Not all bad

Knew the warning for thunderstorms was completely overkill even before today started- where was the back up from the charts? It was always going to be a spell of moderate rain. Beeb and meto went off on a tangent shouting about thunderstorms, nothing new lol

So my phone just buzzed with a meto warning for thunderstorms - but the charts aren't making me particularly excited today only for the prospect of some potentially heavy bursts of rain with some weak tstorms possible. All in all - seems a bit overkill to call it a thunderstorm warning in my books. Estofex don't even have a slight on us today a heavy rain warning warranted - possibly yes, but thunderstorm? Nahh

Very nasty gust front/shower just moved through near Cambridge - the windiest spell yet. Definitely going to cause some damage somewhere or another.... proper downpour to go with it too! Wow No exact measurements but wind gusting at least 50mph+ for a short spell

The weather works in extremely strange ways at times - and my instinct tells me there's a lot more to it than meets the eyes of many on here and the pro's. If you recall, we had a relatively early(ish) start to spring last year once the beast from the east cleared in March, we then had an early shot of freezing weather in October/Early November (which had that set up arrived in Dec/Jan we would have been talking a major event). That seemed to burn off any chances downstream of further cold... and my instinct in November/December (and indeed I even posted about it on here) told that we may be in for an early shot of spring as the winter season began 'early' - indeed everything seemed to have shifted forward somewhat. It's probably just a co-incidence (or not?) - but it has happened and here we are with 18 Degree temps on 26th February 2019. So when you talk about this leading to a pretty rubbish summer (or our standard summer!)... it wouldn't surprise me if there may well be some truth in that down the line. That said, I won't complain if we end up with some terrific storms and deluges

Good morning all! One of the finest morning today - with the mist rising and clear blue sky. Models indicating a slight dip in temperatures at the start of next week before a repeat performance ... with temperatures back into the low teens by late next week. Incredible really. It really is shaping to be one of the mildest starts to February - not sure where the record books stand with this? As mentioned above by a few, as it is still so early - I would not be at all surprised to see a ''flip'' in the weather, however with this years dismal chart display I would certainly take any background chart signs with a large pinch of salt or two! History just tells us that winter can spring a surprise all the way until April...so my logic is based purely on this - not any graph or chart! Not after this years performance!!!

PS Roll on the spring/summer time thunderstorm season!! Let's hope it's a good'n this year

Winter never really started here in Ely, East Anglia, but after all the hype and false outcome predictions I'm more than ready for spring I'd say!! And I also hope I never hear the words 'SSW' or 'Downwelling' for a long, long time!!

Well... my crystal ball on 4th January 2019 was right!!! An early spring is on the horizon

Cant complain this week at all - spring will most definitely feel like it has sprung! All the ingrediants are in place for some 'warm' ish afternoons to come

Ironically many of the 'rated' forecasters (on both here, twitter - other media platforms) and 'culprits' who couldn't stop shouting about 'downwelling' severe cold and the like in February are dead set against a repeat of last summers sun and temperatures... hope they keep it up as a repeat will certainly be on the cards if so!! The weather tends to do the exact opposite to what they shout about and try and ram down our throats

Managed a light sprinkling here last night from the North Sea showers, to my surprise. Must have been quite a heavy one as all paths and minor roads covered with a light sprinkling m. Doesn’t quite make up for the disappointment of the last few days but is nice to see!

Awoken to some sleet and mush. Think I would have taken yesterdays -6 freezing fog over that but anyway! Just wasn't the right set up yesterday - and the front was not significant/potent enough. Of better interest are the showers/convective activity prospects for the next 24 hours - as the radar currently shows around Newcastle. Get in the firing line of these and they would easily out do yesterdays damp squib and provide a nice 2-3 inches. Hoping a 'Wash Streamer' sets up later...will have to wait and see.

Looks to me as if the front is grinding to a hault - could potentially leave many disappointed? Signs not good so far

I'm in Haverhill until 10pm tonight... but think it will hit later than that (if it does get this far North). I think our best chances may will be in the morning and tomorrow evening once the showers feed in - but there is a risk these could be more rain/sleet on the coast and there's a question mark on their ability to settle... maybe not quite cold enough for that

just popped head into the South West forum - by heck there are a lot of disgruntled people in there! The amber warning area the meto put up have had little precipitation to date and it seems to have formed a 'dry slot' right over this area, potentially could leave these parts with barely a sprinkling! Anyway, the radar looks to me like the fronts primary energy is being pushed east...which could benefit Kent and the like later on. Will be watching with interest once it starts heading North and keeping an eye on intensity.... interesting times

I'm surprised so many appear to take these runs so seriously, this time next week there is a moderate to high potential we could be staring down the barrel of a potent easterly... Yes the almighty Canadian / N American cold will fire up the jet stream in the short term, but this in turn plays absolute havoc with the charts. On that end all the charts, there is not 1 chart since early January, that can hold its head high, they have been shambolic - and should give the bods/pro's reason to look into exactly how they work, as clearly there is a long way to go in modern day forecasting and programming technology. I'm not being subjective either, they have completely hashed both cold and mild prospects so fair - weren't we looking at a SW'ly hair dryer for this week just 2-3 weeks ago? I'm not promising cold and snow for all but... lets reflect on the above and agree that anything past 78 hours is potentially hogwash.

Well, even if I don't get much today at least I can watch the snow which is now falling on Polzeath Beach via this live feed

A bit 'off topic' from todays excitement, but Monday night looking pretty good for those that miss out today according to the GFS Para at least... not taking that for granted but it shows promise, could deliver a 3-4 inch event if it plays out in favour.

Looking that way! Our one saving grace is that the models/forecasting for this event has been attrocious to say the least, the system itself looks extremely unpredictable, so we may well see either a fragmented front which 'peps up' or benefit from some North Sea snow showers later tonight/tomorrow. Can't rule out a covering just yet....