Matty88

Nicely put, I'd say the predicted lobe of severe cold sliding into Canada/N America is definitely not a good factor (and never has been) in producing us a nice cold spell. Expect zonal cold 'snaps' until February and maybe beyond in my view - doesn't mean we won't see transient snow events though

Exactly! you know things are bleak when people get sucked into fantasy land charts and start thinking they will actually happen!

Very nice but a fantasy chart I'd say! Nice to see it though

Likewise! Yes its easy to get carried away with the charts beyond day 10, reliability is the issue! No concrete building blocks appearing yet... as you say Looking like February could be interesting so long as the pesky Atlantic takes a chill pill! Not getting too excited about the rest of January now most signals point towards a mobile and zonal weather pattern tbh, a transition period for February we hope!!

To get excited about a slightly re-worded text cast - I think that's clutching at straws a wee bit! They were completely wrong about the previous December and January periods so my faith in this forecast is.. zilch... The weather will do what it wants, when it wants! But not for another 10 days at least

For anyone on here this doesn't really tell us anymore than we already know... the 'SSW' event has so far lead to everyone (including top forecasters) scratching their heads as the UK basks in relentless 'mostly mild' gloom and the charts show no prospect (yet) of this pattern changing too much all the way to the end of January. Is what it is - but you can sugar coat it all you like, hasn't changed things Looking more and more likely we'll have to wait until February now for any pattern change... or could the SSW actually work against us for the rest of winter? All to play for IMO

Approach with caution but great signals showing - a shame its in the long term (ie 10 days+) - plenty of room for 'adjustments' . As Derek says in his other posts - still 25% chance the atlantic will continue in its pursuit of pushing the cold into EE

If you believe what that shows it would give me a dusting although I'm 99.9% certain it won't happen

You have to admit, although still a low probability (and a long way to go this season) the chances are increasing for some not to see a single snow flake this winter happened a few years ago here in the fens!!

Hope everyones staying topped up with Vitamin D! Seriously - not seen the sun for days here Tomorrow should at least herald some brighter and ''fresher'' weather, maybe even with a sleety passing by Wednesday At least its been less hassle getting to work so far this season!! And my wife certainly doesn't mind (she hates the cold - and she's Russian !!)

I concur with their recent script forecast that the likelihood of a 'higher chance' of cold weather looks likely to increase towards the end of January (I'm sure I've heard that before!). The charts are indicating a change afoot at the end of each run, perhaps an indication even of a rather snowy breakdown, which wouldn't surprise me given the stubborn nature of the atmosphere - it needs a good old shunt! At the same time - nobody on here or anywhere should religiously rely on what the meto forecast actually occurring- even the meto have resorted to reminding readers in their most recent long range forecast that what they forecast is 'by no means certain'... those are important caveat style words that a few on here could do with taking a bit more seriously.... a cold spell at the end of January is absolutely NOT CERTAIN. Its interesting - even some the best have got it wrong so far this season (including the meto) and are scratching their heads. There's certainly a lot to learn from the current/recent SSW event for all concerned

Cold med/Turkey always signals mild for us, last year Turkey and med region had a very mild and relatively less snowy winter - likewise the Caucus Mountains in south Russia - last year had a terrible ski season but this year it’s been fantastic. All signals point towards dull, mild and frankly disappointing winter for us. I suspect we’ll see a snow event or two (brief 2-3 day events) but I have low hopes for any beast from the east style event this year, there’s nothing to support the sustained deep cold easterly intrusion at the moment Hope I can eat my words later though! got everything crossed!

As this season started relatively early (Got rather cool in Oct-Nov) I'll stick my neck out and say I reckon we're in for an early spring season.... Don't get me wrong I love ice and snow but when you think about it, its a right nuisance to travel in! A snowless winter maybe? Not all bad!

Second 'light' frost of the season here in Ely - tells you how mild its been so far! Not looking particularly good for our region for the next 7 odd days either for any wintry stuff.... the wait continues! Time for the charts to spring a surprise yet...I'm sure we'll get a bit of snow eventually this season - probably not much as usual

Point made! Let's all jump on the meto band wagon then and dust down the sledges ready for the end of the month 'as I read the meto predicted snow' - it's bound to happen then!!

Some are writing as though they put whatever the meto say in their calendar ''cold due on 15th'' etc. People on here shouldn't even look at their forecast - we are all capable of looking at the charts which will keep you much better updated than their tradional script forecast, which is out of date 6 hours later! These are aimed at the less educated general public So my advise : if you follow the charts then ignore these script casts ! Ps for what it's worth I feel the whole SSW thing has been obsessively over done and we will have a relatively mild and dry winter, I'm not taking anything for granted!

Finally!! I can realease !! Two possibilities: Scenerio 1 = The bods are right and the charts will suddenly introduce colder scenerios in January due to the so called 'SSW', and the charts at the moment just can't calculate this at the moment! We end up with some really decent set ups. This wouldn't surprise me at all as its happened before. Read this retrospect for 1987: https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=libgen&id=1503 Scenerio 2 = The bods have been over-egging the SSW and in fact we end up with a South/South Westerly hair dryer stuck on full speed for January, with an early spring in February and ruining coldies chances of a proper snowy spell!! So a good reason for people to be moaning - the charts are currently going for scenerio 2 (a dire scenerio but at least it'll be warm and mostly frost free!), but weren't the winters of 76/87 similar ie pre-xmas it was mild then bang and the country was gripped in an epic freeze?? Hmmm.... Still all to play for in my view! Best advise: Ignore the charts for the next week or so... open them again on 1st Jan!!

The forecasts look positive yes but approach with caution fella - no guarantee for significant snow for our region just yet, could even get through January without a snowflake - nobody knows. Likelihood is - its winter so its highly probable! But significant snow for our region? Less so. We'll only know a few days before it happens Next 2 weeks = Average, no snow for us. Next 3-4 Weeks = 50/50 chance. All hopes seem to be on this SSW... I'll believe it when I see it

I'd be surprised, the fronts moving in quickly and will sweep in mild air. A non-starter in my view for the likes of our low lying counties Onto the charts - they've mostly swung for the mild unsettled outlook, overly so in my view. We are bound to see some changes in the next few days and there are hints they could swing in an easterly over the Christmas/New Year period which would be nice. Worth keeping an eye on. Easy to get despondent with charts of the last few days, they have well and truly caught the mild unsettled bug!! Give them time to get over it hehe...they'll start feeling better soon!!

I've learnt over the years to ignore these kind of 'one off' runs. Its a positive sign, but as you say, its just as likely that the GFS will throw out a mild South Westerly solution for Christmas day by this eve! The key will be if the cold solution run above sticks for a good few days... can't deny its a glimmer of hope though, buts its way too early to get excited just yet. Good to keep an eye on it though - there'll be a lot doing that over the next week or so!! The above N'Easterly set-up certainly favours our region though in terms of white stuff when they occur. Lets hope we get a set up like this at some point this winter

Agreed - a wet and mild Christmas is looking more and more likely. The charts have indicated a northerly dive towards Christmas this last few days but its hit and miss - I'd say its a 20% chance right now, and even if it did happen it wouldn't guarantee snow as North/North Westerlies are never a favourite for us. Looking at how the Jet and heights are behaving I personally have a feeling that we will need to hold out until early-mid January for anything of significance. There's also a very slim (15%) chance that we could get some transient white stuff Friday/this weekend if everything goes in our favour - it seems like a big ask though. That said - I could well be wrong and have been caught out in the past! I will keep things crossed

Well been watching contently this last few weeks as the charts have been all over the shot. Despite all the bods in the chart discussion hunt for cold thread rather excitable it never looked to me like the cold weather would come off and now looks like a relatively mild and stormy week for us lot next week. Will be another 10 days before any chances of the white stuff come knocking I reckon, or early Jan. Oh well - at least won’t have to worry about defrosting the car!

Interesting, as I've found accuweather's previous long range forecasts comparatively accurate in recent years (on the whole) - they were fairly close with summer 2018 too. I can see where they are coming from with this with the warming of the Pacific forecast etc, but for me and following the long term trends, heights and sea temps over the North Atlantic I would not at all be surprised if they are a bit out with this one. Famous last words of course - but there is no sign of these 'frequent wind storms' at present, on current runs anyway. We are seeing already that HP is really beasting up over europe/north atlantic with some record heights, sending warm air far further north into the arctic, reminiscent of the 'beast from the east' days. So for me, something tells me this winter isn't going to be our normal run of the mill westerlies - due to our friendly HP throwing curve balls in the jet streams way. But things can and do change... and I'm sure the jet stream will fire up with time. Its definitely an interesting one to watch!!! Never the less I'm going to enjoy the forthcoming cold, crisp days very much and Scotland could well be in for their first snowfalls too!

Some good ingredients in play today for some nice storm development. Surprised none of the storm forecast sites seem to be picking up any warnings today - maybe some good storms but nothing too severe? Precip charts look very good with some moderate CAPE. Maybe I'm missing something? These sort of set ups historically are good for some weak tornado's/funnels

That’s the place to be just ahead of the main clump - that sure looks a possible supercell. Anyone near this?