Matty88

Clouds ominously building to my South East... looks like I'm going to get hit again with some decent storms. Looking juicy out there

Well I was well and truly in the sweet spot this evening in Ely - Cambridgeshire, with the convergence line storms pretty much firing up directly overhead. We had torrential bursts of rain and thunder followed by another round and finishing with one mega storm with thunder every other minute and overhead fork lightning. The best home storm I’ve had for probably a year or more. Same again tomorrow please?

From today all the way until Friday looks packed with potential for my part of the woods - particularly liking the heights and precips for Monday and Tuesday. Interesting times! May start with some downpours today - atmosphere seems primed for initiation

Can see the SE anvils all the way from my home in Cambridgeshire at the moment! hope the evening cooling helps things continue to develop

Well it’s either going to ignite or it’s going to to Fizzle out into nothingness lol will keep an eye on the radar. Most of the precip charts don’t think much will happen But we shall see

So annoyingly the beeb and meto were jumping up And down Like they were on steroids Shouting about storms and even tweeting about tornados for today and tomorrow - even as their graphics showed the odd splat of isolated precipitation, but oh look... nothing but a bit of snizzle If your lucky and the odd sharp shower Nice dry day in EA tomorrow might even get out on a the bike. Sunday onwards currently looking far better for potential

Agree they must be on pills. Very 'amateur' ish they don't seem to get much right these days, starting to believe the whole flight observations thing about less accurate data is actually true! The storm scenario tomorrow has flopped as far as EA is concerned, who knows maybe it'll flop back and the beeb know something we all don't ?!

Agree - to be honest due to the nature of the beast a lot has been made of storms/rain today and tomorrow but the latest indications are widespread and organised activity is limited especially for our region with tomorrow not looking bad at all now for many, but we shall see.

Hi All, forgive me as I am very much a novice but follow with interest the sea ice extents, and I have a question: Why has the 1981 - 2010 median ice line appear to have suddenly changed east of Greenland on the NSIDC daily ice images within recent days? Does it adapt according to the time of year? It appears to have increases in size/shape around this edge. Has the ice extent also recently shrunk east of Greenland? Example: From Dec 2019: From 30/01/2020:

Temperatures stayed up above freezing this morning North of Cambridge - plus 1 to 2 with patchy frost here and there. Not as cold as yesterday in these parts with high cloud too. Frost certainly possible in the next few days but not as deep as we experienced Saturday night, high probability the next few days will stay similar ie +1 to 2 with patchy frost. Nothing to write home about really! Looking like temperatures slowly on the rise into the weekend/next week once again. The wait for winter continues !!

If anyone is taking the GFS for granted on here they may as well roll a dice on the next weather pattern... the GFS has been utter trollop. You may as well conclude that whatever it says for early January it means the opposite scenerio! On a serious note it's concerning that in this day and age we seem to be going backwards with accuracy of forecasting in certain respects, not forwards - despite the advance in computer systems. A bad show. Back to the here and now - pretty much everything now points to HP taking charge following Christmas (which is a good thing!) - my monies certainly on that and not a continuation of pounding LP's into January. I may lose my bet but I'll be surprised if I do. On the other hand I'd rather HP blocking in January & February than in November and December - so maybe its a good thing!!

Vortex/Jet (or whatever you like to call it!!) is throwing one last lot of LP's at us then later next week it finally shuts up by the looks of things. The atmosphere (or weather!!!) always seems to have a canny way of balancing itself out especially now the jet is running out of puff, I wouldn't rule out some really decent blocking into January 2020 on that theory and looking at the model indications its hopefully going that way.... I suspect winter will be truly arriving for most in January fingers crossed. We need that beast from the east!

Another calm, foggy and chilly morning here in Cambridgeshire... the last for a while I suspect Ahh damn it, there's s'now hope for us in the SE next week, charts have gone into zonal Westerly/North Westerly mode for the next 7 days or so now....often means nowt for us in the SE!! Although there are signs of a pattern change close to Xmas itself. My moneys on it staying wild and windy until January (with the odd variation) but we'll see... we are overdue a nice big fat cold HP with wintry showers please!!! Come on charts!!

So... the usual flip flopping in the charts (nothing new)... not entirely unexpected. We need Europe to freeze over and bring in another beasty easterly... thats the best way to deliver cold! Can't really see that happening for the next 20-30 days at least, The dreaded Zonal North Westerly do nothing for me down in East Anglia!! Crappy crappy crappy

Despite all the hype that a new SSW might be on the way, there are good reasons to be speculative in my view - as SSW's can mean different outcomes for anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere. My gut feel this time is North America/Canada will be getting it big style while a lot of Europe and including the UK will be jammed in a mobile zonal flow... this outcome can't be ruled out. True it's also possible it can mean we get an easterly block - but it's unlikely in my view, especially given how mild it's been across the continent (at least partially - for mid Europe/Russia where it's been unusually warm). Either way the latest charts indicate with some certainty now that the end of Nov/Start of December at least will be dominated by a mild'ish Atlantic flow, with the exception of a cold snap or 2. Eye's then look to mid/end of December for the next evolving pattern. By no means is the writing on the wall! Try to avoid getting sucked into the SSW event excitement if possible.

Those big beasts in the North certainly look like they hold a punch or too...without doubt there is hail in these (and perhaps severe wind gusts or tornadoes?). Wouldn't be surprised at all if there are reports of funnels or weak tornadoes later, maybe even the odd 'moderate' tornado, seems like favourable conditions. If anyone has any reports or pictures from those Northern most storms it would be interesting to see them! I've got some hefty showers today near Cambridge - they don't look much on radar but they certainly pack a punch!

Considering the heat and potential today I guess that’s quite a disappointing outcome so far. The meto seemed to have an idea that this would happen though as their forecast for this region was very tamed with only isolated risk of a storm but mainly dry - and so it’s proved, so fair play to them on this occasion, although further east to me I’m sure they got the opposite! Still chance of some storms later if the other precipitation band peps up... much later though.

Within the City that wouldn't surprise me, I'm on the outskirts. I should have clarified - looks as though the July record has been broken, but not the all time record. Temps now cooling off a touch as we head into the evening...

Current temp hovering around 33-34, doesn't look to me as though the record has been broken... that said I'm sure the beeb/media will find some 'unofficial' reading that makes them think it has...for headline purposes.

There is more of a risk with heat stroke today than any storm I assure you. We aren't the American Mid-West, so although we will get some decent storms, being realistic, any severe events will be very isolated affairs, so warning people not to go near any storms as they could be more severe than usual is massively OTT, rant over!! Just a few hours to go before we really see the fun and games in the Midlands/North, then further South from 7pm onwards. Capping is having a big affect in the South so far.... our hopes rest on when this finally gives way (this evening). Still worth radar watching though

I'm following this guy, good info, but be cautious he seems a little over-dramatic at times, refer's to most storms as 'Severe'... reminds me of that Reed Rimmer over in America!! Anyway, I would be pleased if his cries of moderate tornadoes and large hail come off! That would be very nice. But apart from isolated events - widespread large hail has never really occured in the UK so it's unlikely to be widespread in nature, but never the less a low risk

Whilst the charts are remaining cautious (esp precipitation wise)... the ingredients seem to be there in abundance (more or less) today, with scattered cumulous already building. Its most definitely going to be an interesting day... I'm optimistic us in EA may well catch something decent especially tonight. I would rather a daytime surface based storm however as these tend to hold the most severe threats, it seems more Northern parts may be best for this at this moment in time. I am getting the feeling it'll be all eyes on the radar by 6pm this evening...tonight could be a real corker in terms of lightning!

The storms last night seemed a bit limited in their severe extent - albeit the lightning was spectacular! No reports of large hail or wind gusts as I understand? Does anyone have an idea of storm capabilities tomorrow? Obviously the dew points/temps will be slightly higher than Tuesday, I suspect both this and the timing of initiation will play a part in the severity. Either way it's looking like some places (including me in the East) have a moderate chance of getting another decent lightning show...especially if convection organises itself and tracks east, fingers crossed!

Whilst the above makes interesting reading, this is a weather forum not a debate on whether man has made the climate change! It's our natural instinct in Britain to get emotional and start panicking about global warming whenever we get a few hot days The actual science of the current matter in question is down to weather system/jet alignment, although I do believe the climate change 'warming' is happening - the actual science of which still needs to be determined, I'm not yet jumping on the 'we did this to ourselves its all man made we can save the earth by switching off our lights' band wagon. It could all be down to the warming sun... for example. Anyway .... there's a whole debate in this! I also believe World population growth and deforestation is far more concerning right now... we should be focusing on that. Anyway, back to weather! I am reserved as to whether the heat record will be broken tomorrow, it may just get close in London and its surrounding suburbs... possibly 36.5 or along those lines. The storm potential is there - although how widespread/severe it may be is the question, it could either explode into life or contain itself into narrowly aligned cells. Tomorrow mornings charts will be key

Well overall a good night for storm lovers - even for us here in the East! We had 2 rounds - the first gave some decent fork lightning displays, the 2nd a bit more intense, with some small hail mixed in. It was great for sure - whilst not being the most intense storms I've witnessed here, the worst of the thunder heads seemed further North/East, whilst the characteristics of the storms seemed quite elevated in nature generally from what I saw,. Haven't yet seen any large hail/wind damage reports yet so maybe severe weather was limited? There were plenty of doubters on here earlier in the thread for Eastern England but as I said, the early development in Central Northern France proved to be pivotal in extending the storms further east, and so it proved! There are strong signals for some storm potential in Eastern England tomorrow, and with the uplifted heat, we could be seeing some very tasty storms tomorrow evening in SE/East Anglia.... especially if initiation commences late afternoon/evening. With those temperatures I'd imagine large hail and severe threats would be prominent if initiation gets going early enough. One to watch.