[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

Im not sure this low heading further south is nailed just yet.

Still the scenario of it heading a little further north then moving SE..... that would be a dream synoptic.

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

GFS has the low a little further north at 96h

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

2 minutes ago, V for Very Cold said:

As the NetW mantra says….. get the cold in first

It is in, and apart from this low pushing up from the SW it looks predominantly dry unless you live in coastal regions or in northern Scotland....I know there could be a few surprises and troughs etc but that is certainly not guaranteed. If this cold spell was to end with the majority of the country snowless, it would be such a downer (weatherwise) for most. 

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

Just now, Tim Bland said:

Am I the only one who wants the low to track closer to us and provide a snow event?

I get that it’s high risk for longevity, but best case scenario in my mind is a widespread snow event, a short interlude of milder air & then a reload icon is cold and dry… I want snow dagnamit!

Same as mate, low pushing north bringing snow and then sinking SE bringing in an easterly and convective snowfall, not too much to ask is it? 

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

The AL is looking a little less intense on the 12z GFS @96, that has to be a good sign this early on.... 

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

3 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Moving just south enough though to keep us in chillier air at least.

Surely if this run continues the low would move towards Northern Italy bringing colder 850's in from the east?

 

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

8 minutes ago, danm said:

Which you'd expect post day 7....

Point being, Mogreps is currently showing a lot less divergence and uncertainty at the same timeframe than the last set of GFS ENS.

Agreed - But to be fair MOGREPS only has 17 ens whereas GFS has 30........whether that would make a difference is anyones guess!!

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

Some lovely ens at 192, just a few I have cherry picked.

 

   

 

  

 

  

 

  

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

6 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

I long for a time when models are good enough to resolve low pressure systems like this so we don’t have to go through this drama..

That would take all the fun out of it though 

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

GFS delaying the colder 850s this time round

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

I will take Perb 22 please

 

   

I know its cherry picking but what a run and shows what could be possible!!

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

The control is nice and looks as though it is going to be cold throughout 

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

not a raging +NAO ……
 

Thanks Blue have no idea why i thought it was......still a poop run though lol

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

If the Para was the op on this run we would all be pulling our hair out as it is shocking in the mid to late timeframe to the point, we have a raging positive NAO. More runs needed I feel.........i won't be happy until Friday at the earliest if the ECM or anything like it is still showing the same runs as it has recently.

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

It will feel bitter, especially at night under those slack conditions.....hoar frost and freezing fog with temperatures struggling to get above freezing.....

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

Is that low west of Spain going to scupper things or maybe bring a nice draw from the E/NE.....

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

And look at that trough over the states pumping WAA up the western side of Greenland 

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

If the high pulls away from scandi towards greenland there some fridgid air coming straight from the arctic with our name on it.

[Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards]

Kicking off in Kent now 

[Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards]

Nice storm NE Portsmouth just fired up out of no where.

[Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards]

10 minutes ago, viking_smb said:

The storms will be moving very quickly in easterly direction.

Really? More N/NE i would say

[Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards]

Showers already starting to gather to the SW right on queue now its a matter of watching to see when/if they electrify

[Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond]

20 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Latest BBC forecasts seems to bring the snow back west too, bringing much of the south into the zone of a possible dusting. It now happens at night too, followed by a freeze so some may wake up to a cm or so. 

Do they just use the output from the ECM?

[Spring 2022 Chat]

While the sun shines and i sit in the garden with a very, very nice glass of red wine, the weather gods best not give us a cold spring. Even me a coldie doesnt want that right now. Next winter is to chase the cold and snow!!

[Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond]

20 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Expect a change in wording tomorrow - overwhelming support now.

I think any changes will be made after tomorrow nights ECM. It will be interesting to see if the 18z GFS lowers the mean as considerably as the ECM has this evening. Not long to find out.