[Alternate Model Discussion - into 2022]

15 minutes ago, snefnug said:

Question from a lurker here.  Given the model  modelling difficulties last week re uk/Europe weather and impact downstream from tropical storms or tornadoes (?) what impact would the recent Typhoon Rai have on the models.  Apologies if I am getting the turbulence names mixed up.  

Hi mate i believe the typhoon has caused confusion with regards to the MJO progression as we want it to move through phase 7 and 8 as soon as possible to aid northern blocking however the typhoon has caused a little confusion as to how quick that happens if at all. The MJO will have an effect on what all the main models ie GFS, UKMO and ECM churn out.

[Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown]

For those that are concerned about huge height rises to the north etc etc please just look at this video, it is a little lengthy but shows even if you get mild northern blocking you can have great winter weather and believe this may well be how this winter turns out.

 

[Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown]

Shall we all wait to see associated ensembles before everyone goes to commit harry karry lol.

[Model output discussion 11/12/21]

5 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Rain pushing in by Wednesday

 

Rain turning to snow in my eyes remember with a continental flow 850s are not as important.

[Model output discussion 11/12/21]

3 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Would disagree with that. 

Agreed. It called the SSW last year well and even if it didnt no model should be disguarded. 

[Model output discussion 11/12/21]

5 minutes ago, RabbitEars said:

OK because I can't trawl 10+ pages of ramp and moan in here during working hours, can anyone provide either a link to a clear synopsis created on the thread, or a brief overview of what is being projected please?

Short sentences like "this is a coldies wonderland" or "boom", or "wait for more runs"... don't help our learning and understanding!

Cheers

Maybe wait until you do have time to read all the great posts most spend the time putting on here for all to see

[Model output discussion 11/12/21]

I know this changes a lot but this is just taking the biscuit, nearly all CFS un biased runs showing a record breaking strength to the PV.

u 60N 10 hPa

WWW.WEATHERISCOOL.COM

 

[Model output discussion 11/12/21]

10 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Marco's Patagna latest tweet

 

From ~next Thursday showtime begins!..low/milder #weather trying to arrive from SW into cold air

I like the word trying in that statement - could be snowy for some

[Model output discussion 11/12/21]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

days 7-12 T2 anoms 
Eps/ geps / gefs       

  

Thats one cold continent which if nothing else is good to see so early.

[Model output discussion 11/12/21]

7 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Burst of westerlies? Where? No sign of westerlies in the foreseeable. Some models may sink the high. But latest output. Doesn’t.

relax.

Totally agree, there are many options on the table but none lead us to westerlies unless i have missed something? As far as i can see at the worst we are looking at a UK high and at best raging easterlies.

[Model output discussion 11/12/21]

7 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

It keeps being in lala land, it was looking good just after Christmas now it looks towards the end of the year!

Have you seen @Ali1977 post, there are still a fair few xmas charts that give a cold and possibly snowy outcome.

[Model output discussion 11/12/21]

I have said it before and i will say it again, some of our best winters have taken a few bites of the cherry before we get something special and i believe this may be another of those scenarios. IF this cold spell does not materialise i believe it wont be long before it does. The atmosphere this winter is not one of our normal raging zonality...the total opposite in fact. 

[Model output discussion 11/12/21]

I still think a UK high is the form horse for christmas but into the new year...

[Model output discussion 11/12/21]

1 hour ago, s4lancia said:

Yep, this was the forecast back in late Jan, which ended up not being far off the mark

Now that is a sight for sore eyes

[Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread]

38 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Happy New Year Coldies !!!

Here's P24 from today's GFS Extended

How's this to see in the new year. I'd take it

BOOM !!!

Prefer a NE wind but suppose it will do 

[Model output discussion 11/12/21]

GFS ensemble mean no where near as good as the 0z lets hope we improve on these again later this afternoon.

[Model output discussion 11/12/21]

42 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

45% is not regarding exactly gem, but a cold and snowy easterly by xmas, and it's based on progressive changes seen in the modelling over the past few days indicating a latency in the resolvement of easterly momemtum aloft. Models aren't read by face value, i.e. 15% show cold so the risk is 15%. That's not the reality in medium range atmospheric modelling.

Thanks for the reply but we also have to take into consideration that the models and suites can change to show the opposite in a matter of days so a 45% chance of anything like what the GEM op was showing seems very high at this juncture especially when we are talking of a raging easterly that the GEM showed at 2 weeks out.

 

[Model output discussion 11/12/21]

4 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Good signal that the GFS keeps wanting to find the re-amplification.

Nice angle of WAA there  

[Model output discussion 11/12/21]

18 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

I think there is a solid chance of gem verifying. 45%.

The other 55% chance goes to cold and dry over Xmas.

Sorry mate but how do quantify that, when it was the coldest in the ens suite? I think some are really jumping the gun here without the evidence to back it up.

To me its clear that the form horse currently is a cool possible cold, dry Christmas and the the chance of something colder thereafter. If we do get the cold in quicker then great but IMO that is a rank outsider when looking at the models and their suites.

[Model output discussion 11/12/21]

Snow row also picking up. 10% chance for chrimbo i will take that for now

Meteociel - Diagrammes GEFS

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

 

[Model output discussion 11/12/21]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

And a 34% cluster in support of a gem type solution …..be calm everyone …….. let’s watch the pendulum swing back and forth …..

I will gladly take those odds

[Model output discussion 11/12/21]

5 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

I'd be confident by 192h given the extent of computational resolvement associated with modelling the easterly.

Wow thats brave considering we have seen cross model agreement before and it has all gone wrong at the last minute.

[Predictions for 2021?]

I like this guy and always explains reasons behind his forecasts, so will just pop it here

 

[Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives]

8 minutes ago, johncam said:

That about sums it up , would be mild by day I would imagine 

Yes if that was how it panned out but far to early to say.

[Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives]

55 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

A flip into the new year on latest zonal winds forecast has there been a new signal? Not liking this

They change daily, i have been keeping an eye on this over the last few weeks