[Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives]

11 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I was going to explain just why I'm so sceptical of BOOM Perbs. But the Met Office does a far better job than I ever could!

 

I think we need to give it another week, boom or not. High pressure can be from being directly over, north or south of the UK. its where the high sits and two weeks out even the Met wont be able to determine 

[Ireland Regional Weather Discussion]

Just popped in here to say keep safe peeps you have a rough day ahead 

[Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives]

16 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Morning all,GFS showing that continental cold block never far away in the reliable time frame,would not take much

of a nudge to be an influence on the U.K.Further out in fantasy island trying to work out possible pressure rise

proximity,most likely Azores high nudging north.

Indeed, and many a year the cold block is alway present before it pounces at some point over the winter months, some of our best winters have had this signal so whilst its sitting there, there is always the chance of it plunging the UK in the freezer. I am quitely optimistic that its a mater of when and not if it effects our weather for those who are of cold composition 

[Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives]

5 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Yes, ecm forecast is still slower with moving acorss the Pacific into phase 7 compared to gfs, so I think we will have to wait a week or so longer to start seeing the blocky charts on the ECM Det run

A nice amplitude when it gets there though  

[Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives]

10 minutes ago, Dennis said:

Beautifull Jetstream position 

If you could move it to north Africa i would get you an extra special christmas present

[Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives]

56 minutes ago, Dennis said:

@Severe Siberian icy blast im hopefull  and see more ideas into the early winterdays 

That looks quite promising, although last year promised similar only to drop the signal nearer the time. Lets hope there is not a repeat this year, we can do with all the help we can get when living on this little island  

[Model output discussion - closing in on Winter]

16 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Ecm gives 5cms + widely across central and eastern england!!!

Doesnt ECM assume every snow flake will settle? I think the majority of us should be happy just to see some flakes fall.....at least until we enter the winter period which is still a week away 

[Autumn 2021 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

3 hours ago, fergieweather said:

Not true - much as they do with Highways, DTN has various customers in the energy sector, including National Grid, and have forecast teams dedicated specifically to that industry.  Latest DTN/WCS assessment for European-wide winter (published last week), with statistical analogues that also factor-in the currently strong stratospheric polar vortex, lean to temperatures being rather variable across Europe during the first half of the winter season, followed by growing potential for periods of high latitude blocking during 2nd half (sustained blocking considered rather unlikely until after mid-Jan); with Feb seeing strongest signal.  Cheers. 

So thus is very conflicting then considering the Met are going for an above average winter with any cold reserved for November/December. Thank you for putting me straight though

[Autumn 2021 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

5 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

Extract from Newspapers

Interesting read but energy firms will still take their guidance from the Met rather than the DTN.

[Autumn 2021 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

6 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

WEATHER Wars.With the Met office forecasting a mild winter,BBC colder than average winter with plenty of snow around due to a week polar votex the 2 big major weather organisation need to sort this out due to the energy firms requiring some guidance .

Energy firms use the Met so they will be expecting an above average temperature for the uk

[Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn]

Big ECM coming up, hold on tight

[Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn]

5 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Here’s the short London ones updates- they just get better via every suite now.. the mean and nearly all member diving south- a cold snap is coming.. but a cold spell is gaining in momentum.. let’s see what the euro model suite says

Lose those warmer members and you are easily looking at -8 850's

[Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn]

3 minutes ago, booferking said:

15mins. 

Cheers mate  

[Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn]

Sorry peeps, what time does the ECM start rolling out? 

[Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch 2020]

50 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

I like the look of the latest CFS runs here

I know they have the bias corrected runs but still. All 4 runs go into a reversal at some point during December

It is nice to see however they have the bias corrected ones for a reason. I wish they would do away with the un bias ones because if they are not correct whats the point of showing them

[Early run up to Winter 2021/2022 discussion]

44 minutes ago, snowy weather said:

According to a private Met Office briefing given to the Government (subsequently shared with energy bosses), we are on track for a very, very mild winter.  

Strange i work for local authority in emergency planning and we have a meeting on Wednesday next week regarding what they expect the winter to be like so will wait to hear it for myself

[Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards]

6 minutes ago, Aiden2020 said:

Don’t post often, might get some hate but well done Kent you win again. Kick me if I’m wrong in the morning lol

To be fair Kent have missed most the action the last few years so they deserve it! Much better chances else where thursday night going into Friday and also Satuday. I have also heard there is a possibility Sunday may show some interest that needs watching.

[Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards]

To be fair at the moment it seems like more of an area of heavy rain with imbeded storms than actual storms movin north.

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

11 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM mean T240, 1030 high slap bang over UK.  Once you get 1030 on the mean, it is as good as it gets to being nailed on at that range:

So looks like a dry and mild start to March now.

That will do me....perfect fishing weather

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

Para about to go from scandi high to greenland hight in the final stages of the run

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

4 minutes ago, Griff said:

This is better

Nice WAA thanks to the deep low to the NW.

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

4 minutes ago, Griff said:

Just for fun but I prefer the way the pub run is shaping up... 

Building blocks beginning earlier on, on this run.....probably lead no where but you just never know.

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

5 minutes ago, Griff said:

I think it what comes later with amplification from the Atlantic that's going to be the decider... 

180 on the op

A bit more amplification and that low just south of greenland could slide?

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

18 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

The control going for height rises too

Too far ne though....couldnt make it up and that would just be our luck

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

36 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Snowfest in deep FI on the OP, para is a bit meh though.

 

Where have i heard that before lol