LRD

ECM 850s for MBY Warm, but not an outlier in FI. Not many very cold runs (-10 850s) in this lot it has to be said

jellybaby1969 Well winter certainly is Dec, Jan and Feb. I'm not having that Dec is less of a winter month than March. That would make June less of summer month than Sept. Never mind astronomical, we've always measured seasons as the Met Office measure them That's sort of what I say - late Jan and the whole of Feb (or most of it) is what I'd consider as back-loaded. Not the last 10 days of the month

stodge What? How can you say we're wrong. That's what a back-loaded winter is. Basically the 2nd half March is a spring month. So it's you that is wrong I'm afraid

A back-loaded winter is late Jan into much of Feb. For example, 1978, 1986 and, an extreme example, 1947 (there goes the 1947 KLAXON). A back-loaded winter, for me, doesn't mean 10-14 days right at winter's death but if we do get a cold and snowy last fortnight of the winter, this season will be rescued

If we do get a cold 2nd half of Feb, hats off to EC46 which, yet again, shows a cold 2nd half of Feb into early March. It's been showing this for days if not weeks

I'm sure I recall people saying that in Dec, for Jan and in Jan, for Feb But, actually, I do agree

Like Thursdays being the new Fridays and 50 years old being the new 40, is Day 12 the new Day 10 BA?!

We've already had one of those IMBY - the weekend just gone. Felt like mid/late March! And that was after a very mild end to Jan The GFS ensembles show some ensemble members that do go full spring-mode from the 15th The control looks very spring-like in FI Another joke of a winter so far and only a really significant, fairly lengthy wintry spell before 29 Feb will rescue it from anything other than the dross category

ECM is a cracker if it's cold you want. Interesting to see the clusters and ensembles later and where it sits within that. MOGREPS 6z suite was on a downward trajectory 850s-wise too (from this time next week/Sunday 11th) Met Office longer range was underwhelming so tonight's cold model runs were unexpected. Something to watch anyway in a winter which, so far, has been as desperate as any these last 10 years

Mike Poole Thanks Mike. That's a helpful clarification Meanwhile GFS 6z goes very cold for the south... in far, far away FI

Mike Poole Must admit I've always seen the red frames as just general blocks - either mid-latitude (inc a UK -based high pressure cell) or higher. I've seen lots of cluster forecasts down the years going for red... and a scandi block ends up being miles away from forming But if that's what the descriptions say, then, fair enough!

This 6z frame (in FI, I know) is almost identical to last night's EC46 pressure anomaly charts for that week. Pretty cold, I'd imagine. But uneventful

Better news on the ECM 850 ensembles. Not the full set...

Apologies Luke - I didn't make it clear that they are weeks 2 and 3 pressure anomalies. Not temps (although I did mention temps so the misunderstanding is my fault)

Great! So a potentially rotten spring again! To follow another shocker of a 'winter'!

The one thing I would say is it looks far better for you than me

EC46 still shows high pressure anomalies around to our north and NW but it now appears to be much closer to us. It's a subtle shift but it's there The cold temp anomalies are still there for week of 12th but have been watered down that week and following weeks Pressure anomalies: Week of 12 Feb 19th Feb Sorry, I know it's not what most of us on here want to see. It's still not bad but it's just not as good

Anthony Burden Sorry, does what? Not getting into it cos it's the wrong thread but the Met Office outlook, how I read it, is becoming weaker regarding cold. And the output kind of reflects that. Let's see what Ec46 brings tonight cos it's been the one consistent hope for seeing winter this month. It might be consistently wrong, of course

Harsh Climate Got to politely disagree - a brief 3-day dip below average (IMBY) and then a split. Goes back to what I was saying before in that we've been so starved of winter weather this last decade that we think mediocre output/actual conditions is/are now good That March 'spell' (if you can call it that) last year was a classic case in point. 3 days of slush and wet snow is now considered good. I'm not invested in winter weather any more but, even though I'm not, I still find that a little bit sad and depressing

There lies the problem Anthony. It's not sustainable. The GFS ensembles show a 3-day cold snap (disagreeing with MOGREPS) and then show a split - likely because the blocking is flimsy. We might get a mid-latitude high I guess, which would not produce anything like what most on here want

Harsh Climate That ain't necessarily so. My expectations are very low every winter and, still, most winters fail to meet even those very low standards! I don't expect raging NE'lys. Just the occasional spell of snow that brings 5 or 10cm IMBY I do agree with the point, in general, though. Things have been so underwhelming this last decade that we have been programmed to think mediocre set ups are now good as the goalposts have been moved so much

blizzard81 Got to agree. EC46 might show something in an hour but it's all very shrug-the-shoulders for me. The last 10 years of largely nothing winters has made me a cynic obviously!

MOGREPS 12z - good for the north Meh for the south And something in the middle for the middle of England Pretty much the same kind of picture UKMO 12z is showing Unconvincing and the Met Office mid and long term outlook seems to be diluting cold. But chances for cold still there for the south from about Day 8 (I know, I know) onwards

As Nick says, MOGREPS better this morning. Not great but it's better for cold prospects from this time next week than last night's suite looked

If it's cold you want, the 6z GFS is looking good from Friday next week. What a contrast it could be in terms of conditions and temps to this weekend's benign bore