LRD

It's a mid-range model - the signals will always get weaker the further out it goes You're welcome

Eh? The ops, means and controls don't have large variants. All of them have been showing a basic broad pattern of a cool/cold UK high then retrogression to our NW for days now. The detail changes as you'd expect but the big picture hasn't. And, besides, if the output was being inconsistent then looking for guidance in other suites is surely valid? As it is the EC46 has been rock solid for days on what it is showing this evening. It's consistency has been remarkable. Might be consistently wrong but it's a model and this is the model output thread

Mike P has just posted them mate

New Year's Eve 1978 KLAXON

Shortwaves don't kill Greenland Highs. The broadscale atmosphere does (if it is set up in that way), allowing shortwaves to exist in unfavourable places, thus making it look like shortwaves kill Greenland Highs Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99706-model-output-discussion-into-2024/?do=findComment&comment=4994783

Shortwaves don't kill Greenland Highs. The broadscale atmosphere does (if it is set up in that way), allowing shortwaves to exist in unfavourable places, thus making it look like shortwaves kill Greenland Highs

But, as I've said a few times on here, shortwave drama is not an option if the broad atmospheric conditions are right for cold. "Shortwave drama" is a symptom - not a cause - of how the atmosphere is primed at any point in time. If a feature collapses a pattern then it's cos the bigger stuff has allowed it to happen. The previous shortwave dramas that saw things go belly up in the past just tell us that the atmosphere was not well set up for NW European cold If the atmosphere is primed for cold, these shortwaves won't destroy the bigger picture. Micro/local features just won't do that. What I will say is that if the bigger picture, atmosphere-wise, is being forecast incorrectly and the atmosphere ends up NOT being set up as favourably for cold as much as we currently think it is, then yes, low pressures/shortwaves/or whatever features can pop up and collapse a cold pattern But those bigger-picture forecasts, I think, are more reliable than the everyday output so we should have confidence in them. Like the Met O and pros on here do Repeating myself - I don't often call cold but I think it will happen this time. And, if not, we get more learning Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99706-model-output-discussion-into-2024/?do=findComment&comment=4994651

Agreed If this does go wrong for coldies (and I don't think it will), I just hope that those people you mention, who know their stuff and have called cold for purely scientific reasons, aren't piled on by others. They're sharing their very technical, high-level of expertise with us and this place will be severely diminished if those posters are put off from contributing their thoughts cos of some daft 'lynch-mob' mentality on here

Yeah, I totally get it CC. I must admit that, since my kids got older, I'm not as emotionally invested in cold/snow as much as I used to be (although I still like to see it Dec-Feb) so I s'pose I'm coming at this from a neutral sort of viewpoint. But I get that people are guarding themselves against disappointment and that's no bad thing for mental health reasons as much as anything Some of it goes above my head but the post from Matt H earlier today will help explain the 'primed' nature of the atmosphere far better than I could

Just to add to the above - Catacol, Matt H and a few others explain this far, far better than I could. But I hope the above still helps I get the caution - those who want cold have had their fingers burnt plenty of times although there hasn't even been many phantom 'cold spells' to chase these last few years. Models have seemingly found a cold spell from not-very-beneficial teleconnections, etc. and ran with it, people get drawn in and then it goes wrong because of some broad scale thing that was not forecast correctly. We could see that again... but I doubt it

But, as I've said a few times on here, shortwave drama is not an option if the broad atmospheric conditions are right for cold. "Shortwave drama" is a symptom - not a cause - of how the atmosphere is primed at any point in time. If a feature collapses a pattern then it's cos the bigger stuff has allowed it to happen. The previous shortwave dramas that saw things go belly up in the past just tell us that the atmosphere was not well set up for NW European cold If the atmosphere is primed for cold, these shortwaves won't destroy the bigger picture. Micro/local features just won't do that. What I will say is that if the bigger picture, atmosphere-wise, is being forecast incorrectly and the atmosphere ends up NOT being set up as favourably for cold as much as we currently think it is, then yes, low pressures/shortwaves/or whatever features can pop up and collapse a cold pattern But those bigger-picture forecasts, I think, are more reliable than the everyday output so we should have confidence in them. Like the Met O and pros on here do Repeating myself - I don't often call cold but I think it will happen this time. And, if not, we get more learning

EC46 is looking cold and blocked all the way EDIT: Sebastiaan beat me to it

Much of a muchness though. I couldn't see any major differences between GFS and ECM at 192, 216 and 240. In fact, I thought that they were remarkably similar bearing in mind the relatively distant timescales For anyone who wants cold that should be encouraging

Shortwaves (or no shortwaves) are a symptom of the overall condition of the atmosphere... not the cause. One disturbance/shortwave/low pressure system/whatever they're called will not destroy a broad atmospheric pattern that is set up to promote cold. If the atmosphere is not primed to support cold patterns then those shortwaves will have more impact but they're still a symptom of the broad atmospheric state As the broad pattern/teleconnections/etc look good for cold, it's unlikely it will get disrupted by one little micro/local-level feature All the runs over the past 3 days are just variations on a theme. Settling down from Saturday, becoming cold (although not majorly so) and then something more dramatic looking increasingly possible late next week/next weekend onwards

Don't usually do the single frame in FI-type posts But, blimey...

GFS producing one of those you-couldn't-draw-a-better-chart-if-you-tried (for UK cold) type runs in FI!

Yeah a disappointing deep, deep FI. But it's FI It's interesting watching this unfold

Very cold for the UK in FI Frigid in Slovakia

GFS summary - cold and frosty. Frosts potentially becoming severe midweek next week onwards, especially in the northern half of the UK and out west Might be some snow flurries next weekend for the east

Proper rant that. I've tried to use model evidence combined with the expert opinion of professionals to make you feel better and you've come at me with conjecture and a moan If you don't care about what professionals say, that's your choice. I'll take more notice of them than someone whinging on the internet. I've seen them be right loads of times. The met office-bashing on here is extremely tedious By the way, as I've said countless times, I'd like it to get cold but I ain't that invested in it so I'm looking at this quite coldly (pardon the pun) and neutrally. I rarely call cold. I'm calling it now Anyway, I'll leave it there. Hope you cheer up soon

The only moan is we might get North Sea clag and gloom in your and my location. Hopeful it won't be the case but it's a possibility

Yep. Nice and seasonal. Just looking forward to some sun and some very crisp, cold mornings so I can walk the dog without him coming back looking like a drowned rat And then from next weekend, the possibility I'll be taking him out in snow

I get that but you said about there being +5 options and -15 options and I just wanted to put some important context around that using the 850s spaghetti A west-based NAO could happen. Of course it can. But the evidence doesn't really support that... at least, not yet. The Met Office do talk about some short-lived milder interludes being a possibility for the UK. Could mean that the Greenland High just shuffles about from east-west and back again over a period of time

Just to build on that, here is the 850s ECM spaghetti. The +5s very much in the minority by the 14th/15th. In actual fact anything over 0 is in the minority However, I will say that uppers have risen over the last couple of days for next week. Will be uneventful but some sun and frost would be nice. MOGREPS have sharply risen, uppers-wise, for next week. Goes to show how the pressure anomalies on EC46 and other models can be a bit misleading Also, shortwaves ort little disturbances or whatever it is people want to call them will NOT blow away a pattern if that pattern is dictated by broader scale, big-picture stuff

They've been right so many times at that range too A below average spell is coming but nothing too eventful this weekend or next week. Fun and games and deeper cold could start from next weekend. I'd say that's the favoured option at this stage. I don't call cold lightly but I reckon it's on.