LRD

There have been plenty of charts posted all evening that are wintry, including the ensemble spaghetti from the ECM... from which you've decided to highlight one of the milder members (the control) Besides, the charts are showing nothing more or less than was expected. Colder but dry at first and then possibly something more dramatic later on. Winter-geddon was never seriously progged for next week or next weekend.

To be honest, I quoted you but I wasn't really aiming most of my post at you. But pointing out certain behaviours in this thread makes me the bad guy so I'll leave it there

The MetO are bullish though, right?

Good post As I say, this is virtually nailed I reckon. And I say that because of what the professionals say as well as the output. It's just a matter of what type of cold/how cold it's going to get. Seems whatever chart you look at they all lead to cold. There's a risk it will be a cold spell that doesn't deliver what most on here want but let's see how it unfolds. Oh boy, you must be exhausted being so negative all the time

Understand the cynicism at the attitudes in the MOD thread but the fact the Met Office are seeing cold lends a lot of weight to it. We'll see The MOD thread is bizarre. You point out poor behaviour in it and you're the bad guy. Weird

What we're being shown is absolutely in line with what the professionals are saying for January isn't it? Some of the takes in here this evening are utterly bizarre. If I see mild or, at least, not-cold I'll call it. I'm not seeing that at all. What I am seeing in this thread is whining one-liners, massive over-expectation and deep micro-analysis of every single frame of every single run of every single model... Sorry to be rude but some of you need to give your heads a wobble. I reckon this is one cold spell that's going to come in relatively seamlessly. We don't know yet if it will be severe or relatively standard cold but just enjoy it being reeled in

Yep, the 850s up to the 8th are a bit underwhelming but there could be high pressure involvement with cold conditions at the surface. Any deeper cold is not really due until later in week of 8th Jan either. GFS 6z ensembles (not the full set of course)

It was 2 weeks

That's just a totally unrealistic expectation (unless climate change really changes thing to the extreme). But 2022 couldn't have been far off that I think some of you would be better off emigrating to Iberia or somewhere like that

Yes, I try and be tolerant of other people's preferences but why anyone would waste time posting on a weather forum if all they want is benign boredom is something I really struggle to understand I got into weather/climate cos of the extremes I experienced when I was a kid (heatwaves/lightning and thunderstorms/gales/snow/etc). The fact our climate is now characterised by utter nothingness is making me lose interest in the whole hobby. It's just a really boring pastime now

Nor here. I think the SE do have a genuinely different climate to the rest of the UK. Sunny intervals, pretty warm, sometimes hot, light winds most of the summer time. Just wish we'd get more thunderstorms.

Yes I don't disagree with you. But that's the big picture stuff. I don't doubt that this year will contain a week or 2 of proper winter (before the end of Feb, I mean. And maybe, shock/horror, in January too). It's those who try and find ridiculously convoluted positives on what are clearly horrible charts (for cold). You know the type... "if this happened, followed by that, then bingo! We have snow". Micro-analysing and convincing themselves, and others, that something is going to happen cold-wise. I just can't see the point of it. They get loads of likes and support. Then someone comes along to challenge the view and it's can be a pile-on on that person who has dared to challenge I took serious pelters on that thread in March. I don't care about that. But I dared to say the 'cold' spell that people had been chasing for, literally, weeks was going to be a 2-3 day slushy let-down and just got jumped on from many contributors. Just cos I saw something different and it wasn't something they wanted to hear it all got very defensive As I say, it does work the other way too and their are trolls who love a wind-up. And then there are some outright miseries who clog up the thread with whining Totally agree with your point about many in there not getting meteorology

Me too. Since my kids got older I don't care about snow like I used to. I'd like to see it of course but if it doesn't happen, which it usually doesn't, I ain't that worried. Trouble is we don't get many thunderstorms in summer now. Thought they would increase with the warming climate

Yep, grim. Utterly grim. Never mind snow what has happened to the sunny and frosty anticyclones

That's a shame you feel compelled to leave. Downburst. You're a decent contributor I, too, have seen similar things you've described. I can't remember the exact circumstances but I posted something in the MOD thread (might have been an ensemble suite or something like that) with little response and then one of the more popular posters on that thread (popular because they are one of the 'positive' (delusional/misleading?) contributors) posted virtually the same thing and got likes, etc Now, don't get me wrong, that sort of **** doesn't bother me. It really doesn't. But because I just say what I see (if it's poor for winter cold or if it's good) and don't peddle a daft, delusional, 'positive' narrative, I'm not one of the clique on there, I say this not to whine - I really don't need the validation of a bunch of strangers on the internet to make me feel better - but just to highlight the echo chamber/group-think that often goes on in that thread. In that thread there are still some very good contributors... but they've also lost an awful lot of very good contributors too

So publish charts compared to different periods in the past which I think the Met Office used to do. 1961-90 average, 1971-2000, 81-10, 91-20. But we shouldn't lose these comparisons. Just going with the new normal in isolation is potentially misleading

Keep it on the low for now

Virtually the whole of N. America and West Russia ridiculously warm. Remarkable but extremely worrying. You have to wonder where all this is heading Disagree - if we move the average goalposts it will just give an incorrect impression of what should be normal. Using older averages sums up where we are and where we're probably heading to

Corrected for you Nick

Wow. We might, just might, get a frost late next week.

I was 13 and sent home from school. Me and a few mates took advantage of the bonus day off and went out and enjoyed it. The spell was severe but not that lengthy. Lasted for about 12 days IIRC

Oh well. To make cold fans feel better (or worse) here's a classic TV weather forecast. Imagine this now...

Spot on. And, yes, Catacol, Tamara, Nick F and others do know their stuff. The fella called Singularity added value too but he doesn't seem to post anymore

I know we all have our preferences but this is it for me. I can't get my head around wanting to not see the sun just for the sake of it being warm. Mild and sunny is still a rarity in a UK winter (2021-22 did have a couple of spells including that remarkable 'heatwave' around the new year of that winter) although that might start to change as warming continues A frosty, sunny morning in the winter lifts the spirits

Yep. And then when anyone dares go against the 'positive' grain they're often jumped on On the flip side there are also some trolls who love to wind people up so, to an extent, it works both ways. Feel sorry for the mods who have to police it all. And I say that as someone who has crossed swords with them on a couple of occasions