LRD

Don't get me wrong, it ain't brilliant by any means but this... ...is a touch better than this morning's set - from the 22nd onwards - and the op/control is a virtual outlier Lots of precipitation spikes (and this is a southern location) from this time next week too

Ah, I probably over-reacted a bit mate. Let's bury the hatchet - it's nearly Xmas!

You should be in a great location. As I said previously, NI and Ireland, Scotland and NW England (maybe relying on height) look like they'll get some kind of wintry blast late next week. Could go wrong of course but it's the way it's trending For me, there's likely to be nothing but hey-ho

You'll be surprised to read that I agree with you. Looks like the PV is shifting to the eastern hemisphere. Could be delaying what GEM and GFS are seeing. Or it's just an outlier Don't see anything prolonged but it could be a potent 3 or 4 day spell at some point near or over Xmas

ECM ops have never been interested in anything especially cold and it's ensembles and clusters are very unconvincing too so the Met Office must be disregarding it and going with their own model and GFS - unless it's all change for their forecast tomorrow

You could be right. Just wonder if that the high is just going to sink like a sack of the proverbial. Detail immaterial at that range I guess but trend is interesting

Ahem, having criticised 'told you so' posts...

GEM at Day 10 Quite potent but it's a flimsy pattern

Concern would be that flat eastern seaboard low just collapsing the pattern but let's see how it goes

These Canadian east coast highs always look like they could hoover up the Azores High to it and plunge us into a pretty potent NW'ly or even N'ly but the reality is usually that the East Canadian high just sinks and reinforces the Azores High Let's see if it turns out different this time (as per Met Office outlook)

Above is Carlisle Manchester And finishing with London It ain't Narnia but you can see why the Met Office has worded their forecast like they have

MOGREPS isn't too bad Can't post chart for some reason

Yeah fair enough. The 850s only tell part of the story too, of course In a NW'ly Debilt might not do as well as us. I still reckon NI, Scotland and NW England have a shot at a bit of winter late next week and towards Xmas

No, not great. The most positive thing you can say is that it looks 50-50 but that's only going on 850s spaghetti Polar bears on the Thames on hold for now It is a warm run compared to the pack in terms of 850s though (for that date)

ECM isn't great but a big improvement on this morning if it's cold you want Very unusual to see a high pressure system of that nature that far north

Not a complete outlier but... I'd have written this 12z off as a rogue run were it not for the Met Office update

Last time I looked on there, there were hardly any posters at all - sensible or otherwise! That place has totally died. A MOGREPS ensemble graph hasn't been posted in a while. London: No surprises there. Looks to take a dip this time next week, right at the end, but nowt out of the ordinary

Spot on. There's a real 'told you so' tone creeping in, which happens every winter of course. I've no axe to grind. As I keep on saying, I retain interest in all this but am not invested in winter weather like I was when I was younger and/or my kids were little. And, let's face it predicting mild in this country is like predicting Liverpool will beat a League 2 club at home in the FA Cup. There's no skill in that, it's just probability (and, in the weather's case, climatology) Those who have explained teleconnections and make calls on that science stick their neck out then get criticism if they're wrong, especially if they're seeing cold weather and it doesn't happen. I respect those that apply science and current knowledge to make a call (cold or warm) and if they keep on getting stick and snidey 'told you so' posts from some then they're just going to stop sharing their expertise and thoughts on here. And I wouldn't blame them What I have less time for is random posts that, with no real scientific justification or explanation, just call cold and hype up cold chances for whatever reason and start predicting things like "coldest month on record" or that 1963 is about to revisit. Those sort of posts just toy with people's emotions and mislead. Especially those who are new to this hobby. I take little notice but I know some might get their hopes up

Not at all. I couldn't care less one way or the other. I want winter but I'm not that bothered if it arrives or not. I just challenge hyperbole when I see it Anyway, GFS ensembles looking the best they've done all day if it's chilly weather you're after Nothing out of the ordinary but there's some encouraging signs there

So do I. That's why I challenge people. It's not fair to mislead people

Ok mate, whatever you say. This is a crap chart (if it's cold you want) That tiny bit of amplification in the Atlantic will just be flattened by the next low coming off the eastern seaboard. Anyway, it's too far out to be worrying about detail. But it's miles away from 'wow'. However, the shorter and more medium term, from that GFS run, was better than what's been thrown up by the modelling earlier today so that's a start

You're changing the goal posts now. You posted wow to some rubbish bog standard Xmas Day chart that is flattening out

No, not at all. A pattern flattening out to a bog standard westerly isn't a wow chart (for cold) in the slightest. Just don't know what you're seeing. It's irrelevant anyway cos it won't look like that Weren't you the one claiming that a record-breaking cold spell was coming in March. Result - a 3-day slush-fest

CLEARLY not. Cos to my eyes that is miles away from a WOW chart. Not that it matters. It's miles away in terms of detail. The rest of the run was actually ok. Probably fog and frost and then something that might be more significant, albeit briefly

Wow? Wow what? A flat westerly in time for late Xmas Day into Boxing Day