LRD

I would keep expectations pretty low for the ECM! (I'm sure you know that but for the benefit of any new folk and/or lurkers watching)

On this run, even the warm up looks interesting up high at the Pole. A week today

Could be a case of right pattern, wrong timing. If the teleconnections are pointing to possibilities of high latitude blocks over Europe in the last 3rd of December it might just be over-reacting to that and bringing things forward a bit early (if it happens at all, of course)

If it's cold you're after, you couldn't draw this chart much better Pity it's a computer-generated phantom

Indeed That looks westerly but am I reading that chart correctly, John, when I say it looks as though the Azores High is not as north as it often can be? Or am I reading the reds and blues a bit too literally? Not great at reading those charts as reliable as they are. Speaking of these charts I wonder where mushymanrob is? He's a big advocate of those

I don't know about the actual weather but this is how I foresee the winter on here: I predict the early winter will feature long bouts of optimism from fans of the cold*. There will be a good scattering of delusion and kidding-ourselves thrown in with some heavy, showery references to 1981 and, later in Dec, to 1963. If south-westerlies are raging in Dec there will be a blizzard of it's-still-early-in-the-season type posts That will be followed by a January featuring frequent comparisons of 1947 spreading in from all directions to effect the whole of net-weather. This, despite the polar vortex raging away in NE Canada, Greenland and Iceland. However, 'winter is over' posts will become more frequent as we progress through the month, especially in the Winter Chat thread, which could get a deluge at times. This may lead to stormy encounters between different members of net-weather In Feb a gale of panic will set in as, with hardly anywhere having seen a snowflake all winter up to that point and GFS, ECM, other models and the Met Office predicting westerlies as far as the eye can see, the tears of coldies could lead to some serious flooding issues, especially in areas experiencing a thaw of the optimism experienced earlier in the season. There may be thunderous storms of protest criticising seasonal weather models and the Met Office for daring to mention the possibility of a cold Feb. This could be accompanied by a torrent of I-told-you-so posts spreading in from smug parts Late in Feb, a brief northerly will set in, leading to a few flakes on mountains in the north. This will lead to isolated predictions of the coldest March since 20,000 BC but they will soon clear as March settles down to a normal pattern of neither warm nor cold By Easter, there will be a monsoon of posts lamenting where winter went wrong when it 'all looked so promising' *of which I am one between early Nov and late Feb

All FI, of course, but there is a reduction in the members who go for 850s over +5 from the 6th Dec 0z 6z (not quite the full set) Could be something or nothing. It's only subtle signs at this point and it's only 1 run but, if it's cold you're after, then that's a trend to watch out for

Dunno if that's a rhetorical question but the GFS suite (0z) sees a definitive return to average or just above ECM ensembles much less convinced

Just a word of warning if viewing the ECM on Wetterzentrale - 192 is stuck on yesterday's 12z for some reason and isn't as good as today's 12z

Agree My punt / unscientific guess for the next 2 or 3 weeks - probably a cold, unsettled week next week. Maybe some snow about. Frosty week of 4th, back to mobility (which might be short-lived) by week of 11th

Good mean Not a horrific mistake at all. It's an easy mistake, which we've all made

GFS op is a wet outlier for a few hours (others do join in later on the 30th but it's still a minority option) and at the very top of the ensemble pack for 850s for Thursday. Even then it's only a very brief spike

It seems that a butterfly could flap its wings in the Amazon rain forest at exactly the wrong time in exactly the wrong way to scupper a cold spell in the UK

GFS op goes off on a tangent again. Early ensembles:

Hmmm, interesting to see the ensembles but GEM and GFS are a step back from cold and LOWLAND snow. No getting away from that. Especially IMBY But UKMO looks ok for the Wash across to central Wales northwards and looks primed to plunge everyone into cold air in FI. Broader picture is still fine but that can still result in no or little snow for the UK

Much better clustering for the north at the turn of the month. I think the north can feel fairly secure in this potential cold spell at the moment. Those of us in the south need more clarity

MOGREPS doesn't have the agreement amongst its members (for London) that GFS does for 28th to the 1st

Was the 6z GFS an outlier... ,,,or a trendsetter? EDIT: sorry, Met4cast beat me to it

Even at 264+, apart from cluster 5, there is something of interest (for cold). If the models and weather were sentient you could say that it almost feels like they want a cold pattern!

Cluster 2 looking good though. Cluster 1 eventually ends up ok but, as you say, it's all looking fragile with that one

Details to be sorted and where low pressure systems sit from around Day 4 or 5 onwards is always subject to change but the picture is not as good for the UK as it was after the 12z runs last night However, the bigger picture still looks very good so nothing to worry about (yet) if it is cold you're after

EC46 didn't get on board with what we MIGHT see until a day or two back. So I wouldn't worry about what it's showing in 2 or 3 weeks.

Indeed. Would be interesting to find out but it's waaaaaay beyond my skill

If something significantly cold and wintry develops, it'd be an interesting study in understanding what drove the pattern if it wasn't the teleconnections. Or if it was the teleconnections behaving in an unusual way (which, if I've read the post properly, Tamara seemed to suggest), then what was it about their behaviour that flipped things

EC46 reverts to mild in the longer term but the fact that it didn't pick up on the developments that we're currently seeing* until a couple of days back, we can't invest much confidence in the model in the long term *not yet verified of course