LRD

Look at the size of that Euro high Size matters. High 30s if that was in the summer

Meh. Warm records don't even register with me anymore - apart from the 40C last year. They're broken so often it's all a bit shrug-the-shoulders If we're talking about cold records in Dec and Jan I would be impressed

The warmth is just relentless. ECM: Even our unsettled July still returned an average CET didn't it?

The models showing a pretty benign and boring outlook for next week Whatever happened to our stormy autumns (acknowledging the event effecting the SW, NW and west at the moment)? A real absence of wild weather in my neck of the woods these last few years Hopefully some atmospheric, autumnal mist/fog if the high isn't a cloudy one

I always thought high SSTs promoted high pressure development. Hence the Atlantic tripole that encourages a negative NAO - warm seas near Greenland and Iceland, cool seas between New York and Portugal/Spain and warm seas south of the Azores Dunno - I've probably got it wrong

Don't worry - spring starts very soon after on the 14th Dec... according to the CFS 6z!

This week hasn't felt like autumn has been delayed! Especially yesterday IMBY Models have definitely reverted to a more unsettled type when compared to what was being shown a few days ago. But from the Wash down to Hampshire, SE-wards, it might not be that wet GEM has been showing warm and dry weather for days and still does even though the warmth has been watered down (pardon the pun) even by them. What a win for that model if it turns out warm and dry for many next week. Odds against it has to be said GEM 12z Ensembles GFS So dry with above average temps or rainy with above average temps

The modelling looks to build in high pressure next week to some kind of extent. But that is at odds with the latest Met Office forecast for next week The UKMO 168 does look quite flat and much cooler than other models for a week today but it looks isolated compared to other output. And, even then, it still looks ripe for HP taking over from midweek next week

Probably one of those instances where the short term (weekend) is less certain than the mid-term. It can happen If the runs for next week verify, though, what a contrast to last week. Would add to the mix of what's been an interesting Sept so far. Usually, the period from early September to mid/late-October is pretty boring in terms of weather and model watching but not this year - so far, at least. Heat, electrical storms, heavy rains. And now, maybe, some autumn gales to come

High pressure gets quite a way north on the ECM run. Hope it's near the mark. We might get some warm, thundery lows impacting the southern half of England if so Over the last few runs, the Euro models have been toying with the idea of pushing the highest pressure a little further north possibly allowing lows to encroach from the south. They sometimes show it and they sometimes don't, so some doubt is still there regards next week. GFS wants to keep the highest pressure over us though - although on the 12z even the GFS wants to push things further north in FI

Is there a lag before things are felt at the surface? If so, it could be early Sept before unsettled weather truly kicks in? I have no clue but I'm assuming there must be some delay before we feel the effects. Or is it an instantaneous response?

The raging northerlies that were shown (on some runs over the weekend and late last week) for the BH weekend have disappeared A lesson to learn for winter, although ICON and GEM still want some kind of north wind blowing in. Light though

This last month has seen a complete flip in what the models have usually done these past few years. The models usually push back and downgrade unsettled weather but it's been the complete opposite this last 4 weeks as any settled weather that is advertised (not been a lot of that admittedly) is pushed back. Matt H's view that AAM will fall again into the 2nd half of August doesn't bode well either and could lead, for once, into an unsettled Sept too

Well this summer has been a massive disappointment but, IMBY, we've only had a handful of really poor days. Still remember much worse summers back when I was a kid But, let's not paint a rosy picture of July. It's been a bad one. Robbing us of a brilliant finish in the cricket and ruining other outdoor activities. July has become a fairly reliable month this last decade (some exceptions but not many) but the above GFS ensemble graph still shows solid below average 850s for the rest of this month and into next and lots of precip spikes. Probably haven't seen such a prolonged spell of below average 850s for years, especially in summer. Watch it warm up and settle down in September when I usually start to look for more unsettled weather A summer to forget despite the record-breaking June (which was obviously warm but didn't feel especially so at the time). Good Junes and poor Julys and Augusts are the exact wrong way round for my personal tastes

With the amount of time that could potentially be lost due to the weather, England will have to play Bazball on steroids to move the game forward quickly But, as you say, it could still change and, even if it doesn't, still not result in a washout despite grim looking charts. The very worst looking charts are over 7 days away. Day 1 and, possibly even Day 2, look ok at this stage unless I'm reading things wrong

Day 3 at the cricket GFS ECM GEM And day 4 might not be much better Not a huge golf fan but The Open's weather looks wretched too Yes and even then the ridge looks flimsy and ready to be swept aside by a rather weak looking low just SW of Iceland

Thanks, don't think you've ever made this point that before Well, what can you say about this morning's runs? Pretty grim. What a stark contrast to last July. The ECM offered some hope yesterday but, as expected, it's reverted to utter dross As for the med heat - they can keep it. Our weather looks crap but there is a happy medium between that and the heat over the med

And, as much as the GFS gets stick, I'm sure it saw this upcoming period of low pressure dominance from quite a way off too

It is what it is - yes, the warmest June on record! You can't argue with numbers. Sorry if it was a let down locally to where you live. Must admit, every time I've ever had to work in B'ham, which is near you, the place has often felt colder than where I come from. And it just goes to show how warm those middle 2 weeks were if you saw those temps before and after. Pretty good for the UK I'd suggest The expectations on UK summers are ridiculous at times. We ain't Ibiza. I s'pose we have been spoilt by the heat of the last few summers to be fair

Yep, dry would be a success right now from where we're headed this next 5-7 days. England's cricketers need dry

Well, yeah, but the record/stats/etc state you might have mis-saw it. Or mis-remembered it No need to apologise

Interesting to see if the ECM has support in its own ensemble suite Wed onwards looks ok. Only 8 days away - what could possibly go wrong?

We've literally just had the warmest June on record haven't we mate?

Well, it ain't been that bad IMBY. I haven't been out of shorts and t-shirt for pretty much all month! But, yeah, this next 7 days looks grim. The weekend looks like October's coming

Yep, some improvement but beware of the GFS - it is a warm run (bordering on outlier at times) compared to its ensemble suite That last UKMO chart looks primed for that low over Iceland to dive across us or just to our east too. Not great