LRD

Good luck. I'm sure you'll be fine. Cyclonic cold looks solid up there according to the models I'm looking at

What's happening in Norway, mate?

Should post that on the model thread - I'm sure most people on there would react with balance and say "you know what, yeah, I'm philosophical if this cold spell turns out to be as exciting as Eddie Howe's Newcastle" Or, maybe not, and you'll get a ban!

That's something I'm not getting in all this. The Met Office's forecasts and text updates look pretty wintry. Talking about 'much colder' weather, etc. Yet, temps will only fall about 2 or 3 degrees (and not for long) where I am and where I'm headed next Friday, compared to where they are now - according to their city forecasts that sit on the same web page. Well, that's not what I would class as 'much' colder. Baffling

I never wanted this cold spell for personal reasons but I'll be cheering cold on again from late November for a couple of months or so But the implications for the likelihood of future cold spells IF this SSW fails to produce much on the UK ground is alarming. I know SSWs don't guarantee anything but this was quite a dramatic one and if all it produces is some North and East Scotland and East Coast snow showers and not much else, well, the word underwhelming won't do it justice Also goes to show that, if this proves to be yet another UK cold fail, a displacement is pretty flimsy compared to a split Polar Vortex Still not ruling out the pendulum swinging back to cold in the next 36 hours, though

Yep agree. I still wouldn't guarantee milder weather by Friday (still think there might be some to-ing and fro-ing of the pattern) but it has trended that way today

Yep they do end up correcting south more often than not (in these situations) And, bearing in mind what the Met Office are saying, you've got to favour somewhere (in populated areas of England and Wales) getting a fair bit of snow from an encroaching low(s). Not what I want but that's the favourite horse at the moment. It's unfortunate for me but I'll have to live with it if it happens

Yes, totally. Which to be fair I have said previously. There is no way the paths of the low(s) have been nailed. It could result in a right dumping, it could result in warmer weather or it could result in nothing/very little (going into France) but still retain the cold I like the look of UKMO tonight but no way do I think that will be the end result this far out

Disagree Matt - ICON and UKMO (remember when UKMO was touted by many on here as the 'best model in these situations' when it was showing cold?) have taken a significant step northwards Sorry to be a cynic but I am not taking much notice of GS precip charts 5+ days out! UKMO op might be representing one of the warmer MOGREPS members but we'll see in a little while I guess

Very encouraging set of 12z runs, so far, if it is cold you DON'T want. My trip to/weekend in Sheffield next week might not be disrupted after all But as others have said, there is absolutely no way the track of Thursday's low will be sorted until Monday at the earliest

Thanks Matt I don't want this cold but, trying to be unbiased, if I was cheering cold on, I wouldn't be too despondent about that uptick in MOGREP 850s... yet. For the next couple of days, I'd expect MOGREPS and other ensembles/models to be switching from pretty cold uppers to warmer ones and back again and maybe even back again (for Thursday onwards) until the path for any encroaching Atlantic low(s) is resolved. A lot of uncertainty and complexity for the 9th onwards

Ha ha! Yep, another classic! Some people talk as though the models are a) sentient, living beings and b) sentient, living beings that control the weather

It'll be British-weather folklore - "remember that day when it was 8 or 9C in March 2023. 'The great drizzle with a bit of snow on the hills' we called it"

Well better now than from May to August. Also, I'm not sure we did have enough rain. Pretty sure there is still shortfall because of the remarkable dryness of 2021 and 2022. Don't recall Sep or Oct being especially wet but I might be wrong. But all this is off topic and will be moved

Need the rain. A perfect chart for getting rid of next week's cold and bringing some moisture to us A moot point. The same model will probably be showing cold and snow in a few hours. Just thought it was worth talking about as no one else has. When I looked at the GEM run I could see why but I'm sure it'll be at the top of the agenda if it's 12z run is showing -12 uppers and precipitation!

Was trawling through the thread for some GEM analysis but couldn't find any. FI looks great Pity it's on the warm side of its ensembles (unsurprisingly) and only has minority support... but it isn't an outlier.

Met Office website still showing 5s and 6s (Celsius) for Sheffield (I'm off there next weekend) and for my nearest town, Bedford, for midweek next week with some chilly nights. Not exactly Baltic conditions but I guess they will be revised downwards over the weekend. Unfortunately

And when that sort of comment is made mid-run... and then the run ends up taking a cold turn anyway, it's "Ah, the ECM has pulled it out of the bag" or some such cliche Serious lack of self-awareness in that thread. I used to be part of it but have learned the lessons over the last 2 or 3 years and realised the error of my ways

Absolutely spot on ECM was a coldies dream the other day and people were praising it to the hilt. Now it's not showing winter-geddon it's "wrong" and "not covering itself in glory". Like the UKMO the other day too. Exactly the same scenario Now the GFS precipitation charts are being wheeled out as something to nail cold colours to the mast too. I daren't tell them it's a very wet run compared to the pack GFS snow charts often promise this: When the reality is usually: However, I'm travelling on Friday and you can bet your bottom dollar it'll be the one time in a thousand that those charts are accurate

A quote from the model thread - "I remember the days when people wouldn’t give the time of day to the UKMO day 6 chart" Yeah, the days it's showing mild Unbelievable - everyone was raving on about the model the other day when it was sticking by cold when the other models had a wobble!

Can you see ANY way out of next week's projected slushy/sleety/snowy mess? Or is it nailed do you think?

Spent Nov, Dec and Jan cheering on cold with little joy (although I did see a fair bit of snow in December that hung around for a week) and then, the very weekend I want benign conditions (10th-12th) things decide to turn arctic Unbelievable. Gutted if the football gets cancelled and the weekend gets ruined Just hope that March solar input does its job and turns snow to rain but I doubt it 'History-making', '1947' (!!!!), 'get ready', 'it's coming'. The cliches out in force on the model thread this morning

I might be cheering on cold* (or at least something interesting, at least) if it wasn't for my plans but not this time *although cold is never the same if it doesn't happen between early/mid Dec-early/mid Feb

Yep. The Leeds graph (that's where my personal interest lies for the weekend 10th-12th) shows some pretty cold runs but most return to above the -5 850 line after the 7th

Think you need to re-read my post mate before piling on