LRD

Nah, not for me Clive

Cool (pardon the pun), I'm fine with that But when cold has zero support from most models and pros, a lot of people on here often still post isolated cold charts. So, just doing the opposite for a bit of balance Cold's been the form horse this last 24 hours. Doesn't necessarily mean it'll verify but it is the favourite

Yep, let's hope. Unfortunately, it's all moved significantly to cold in the last 24 hours. Pity but I can't delude myself that cold is not the favourite like a lot often do in the model thread when it's the other way round

GFS p1 is 'leading the way' for 240 Or p4 p7 is just lovely away from the NW Yes please to p11 Not the only ones either

There was no need mate

Hopefully a MASSIVE cold outlier

Yeah I sort of know Sheffield as a city but haven't been there for a while. I've been to both Hillsborough and Bramall but not for a long time. Although, as far as Yorkshire goes, I know Leeds better but I've never been to Elland Road Thanks mate. Yeah, it's a stag so we won't let a possible bad result spoil the weekend! Just hope the weather doesn't either

Must admit, the vid was a great presentation and explanation but I also thought it didn't match the written update. Which, funnily enough, everyone thought was an upgrade (for cold) for next week but I thought it was a backward step (for cold). Better long term but for next week I thought it was 'meh'. The joys of the English language

GEM getting a lot of love and attention - it was like it didn't exist this morning!

Afraid not. Well not with warmth anyway. Seems that the Met are now favouring battleground snow next week Got a stag do in Sheffield on the 11th and taking in the Luton game at Bramall Lane as part of that. Won't be happy if that trip and game is kyboshed by lousy March snow

Super presentation again by the Met Office They're popular again on the model thread because they are mentioning snow. They've had stick on the very same thread for most of the winter because they have, correctly, not predicted snow

Yes GFS 6z op and ctrl follow each other 850s-wise. I don't know if that really means anything in the grand scheme of things, though

I thought there was a swear filter on here

Yes I agree. The -10 line needs to be breached, at least initially, in the south I reckon. But, there is a caveat in that the 850s aren't everything. Don't now the exact science but there are other factors that could drop temps to nearer 3 or 4C and change rain to snow even if it doesn't hang around for long I totally get your point though

They seem to have been talking about days 9 and 10 forever on the model thread There has been a definite swing last night and this morning to an unpleasant cold outlook. Although the signals have weakened again since last night I think the week of the 6th is going to be an utter mess. Snowy for the far north of England and the whole of Scotland and parts of NI, perhaps, but a horrible slushy/sleety/rainy mess elsewhere. I wouldn't mind that in mid/late November but no way do I want to see that in spring... even in early spring (although some warm rain might be handy)

Fine, comment if you like, but you're agonising over details 8, 9 and 10 days out when that won't be sorted until 3 or 4 days out. I'm just trying to help is all. It won't help your mood if you're that emotionally invested in this. I'm not so it's easy for me to say, I guess If you're analysing big pictures and trends, then fine that's what the longer term frames are for but detail is for 3 or 4 days out

If you want cold and slush/wet snow in your back yard (the north could get plastered), ECM is great. Not sure what you're expecting at this time of year and I'm not sure what chart would make you happy I don't want this cold nonsense but there has been a huge swing to cold in the last 12 hours. If that's your bag you should be enjoying it rather than agonising over every single run and every single detail in every single run Yeah. I know who I would favour and it's not North America. Unfortunately

Anyone seen the GEM op - it is a STONKER!!!!! Wonder why no one has posted it

I am certainly no expert in this stuff but that line graph you posted shows a recovery in zonal winds and that, I presume, would lead to a more organised vortex again. I assume that some of the output is reflecting that? But, as I say, I'm no expert and I might be miles off

GFS op is, unsurprisingly, right at the top of the 850s pack but the shortage of -10 members is also obvious Gut feeling (no science or anything behind it at all) is we will get a cold spell next month but how cold and how snowy that will prove to be, who knows at this stage

Aye, true but with a more unstable northerly possible with those 850s I take your point though

And blocking people usually equals "I can't handle someone not going along with a cold narrative, so I'll block them for daring to have another opinion, even if it is reasoned..."

GFS is hopeless for cold fans but MOGREPS is much better for all you coldies wanting a wet snow/slush fest next month So, I wouldn't be ruling anything out yet, although the trend in other models is not a coldies friend... at the moment

Yeah, agree. Unfortunately, we can bin this run. Pity

Lovely - shame it won't come off and likely to be a huge warm outlier