LRD

I only remember the very, very late 70s and 80s and the period from Jan 79 until Jan 87 we learnt to expect snow even down here in the tropical south. It wasn't a matter of if but when. Even in mediocre winters like 82-83 we had a cold Feb spell But, as you say, things have changed, especially since the turn of the century despite that blip between Feb 2009 and March 2013

Didn't say that, of course, but it's a right horror show if you want to see winter in, er, winter!! And, as mushyman said earlier about a chart he used (and got everyone jumping on his head in outrage about it for some reason), it's an awful long way to cold from there It's 240, it might be an outlier. A straw

If someone asked me to paint a miserable chart for UK winter cold prospects, I couldn't do a better job than what the ECM's computer has done there!

I get what you're saying and, of course, to write off any sort of cold weather in January around the New Year period was proved wrong... but this week has hardly been countrywide Narnia either. Some northern and western parts have had a bit of snow and I'm pleased for folk in those areas. And there have been widespread frosts but it's still a fair way from what most of us look for in winter, generally, and in January, specifically. Fortunately, my expectations are always very low in winter and my kids are older now so I'm no longer especially invested in cold and snow. I'd like to see it but it bothers me less and less with each passing year (and just as well - as snow will become rarer and rarer with each passing year), although I still like to see wintry scenes for the fortnight either side of Xmas Yet again, I will very probably not see a single flake of snow in January where I live. I shrug my shoulders these days but it's utterly remarkable what has happened to this so-called winter month over the last 35 years When people do write off a month or a few weeks or even a whole winter regards cold conditions, they're absolutely piled on in here. But that's what this place is for isn't it? For us amateurs (and some excellent pros on here too) to make a forecast based on a) what they're seeing in the models, b) what they've experienced in the past in terms of model-watching and the reality of past winters and c) what their 'gut' is telling them based on these things? When I first started reading and then contributing to these forums, when people wrote off cold for long periods, it used to irritate me, too, but not anymore. Now I can't understand why folk get so offended when someone expresses that opinion, especially if they are long-standing members. Iif they are new members and are obviously trolling, I get that that would be annoying. But people like CreweCold, whom I think a lot of comments are aimed at, are not trolls and they're just sharing a view People writing off cold get hammered on here but there are also members of NW that often make outrageous predictions of record-breaking cold virtually every winter - it never happens but they get off scot free cos they're saying what people want to hear All the best

That says to me there will be a high hanging around for some time giving a chance for people to dry out. And then more rain by mid-Feb Zzzzzzzzz

A chance for folk to dry out, which is good of course But my goodness, I sense a completely boring week or two ahead with us high and dry - and our high feeding lots of cold and snow into Europe

Yep, true. Thin gruel though

Evening boys and girls ECM ends with this Certainly a trend for high pressure to our East or very close to our NE for next week. Too far south for anything interesting but it'll be chilly I s'pose What the recent model trends do tell us is that yet ANOTHER January is going to pass us by without a sniff of wintry conditions - widespread significant snow. Still, we have a few frosts to 'celebrate' this week. Woooh, yay

True. Lucky it's getting cold next week so we're not relying 100% on the reload. Trend is for some heights to the NE. Got to keep watching to see if the trend gets a) nearer and b) stronger

Pac-Man and a Ghost Monster

Striking thing about the 120-168 clusters - it might be my imagination or the memory playing tricks but I'm sure, as recently as this morning and last night, there were still 1 or 2 clusters clinging on to the idea of heights in central and/or southern Europe. They were a minority option but they were there. All of those clusters now remove Euro heights. What with MOGREPS ensembles, and now those, it's no wonder the Met Office mid-term all of a sudden flipped colder Good stuff

MOGREPS has been upgrading slowly but surely but tonight's ensembles are a significant improvement for cold London Brum Manchester Glasgow You get the idea...

Very nearly a proper Scandi High there I fear the jet and AZ High alignment may force the pattern too far south and east though. Immaterial at this range. A good set of 12zs after a decent Met Office update. I mused, earlier today, that the northern folk on here should start to get interested in this. Southerners might join in too

Toppler... Into Scandinavia...?

Disappointing GFS FI coming up, though

Fair enough. Still think there could be surprises for the north in an unstable polar maritime airstream. Don't think the ECM ensembles are too shoddy for Manchester for example Nothing south of the Humber across to central Wales of course

Surprised there's not more of a buzz about the place amongst our northern forum members. Looks pretty good for you boys and girls As for southerners, the encouraging thing is the signal for continued amplification. I think we'll miss out on anything significant next week but if that signal remains, things might happen from next weekend. Going to be interesting to see what the Met Office say later and if there is a change of emphasis in their medium range. Good to have something to talk about after the last 2 or 3 miserable, autumnal weeks MOGREPS looks good for the north

Yes. Slightly weaker Iberian heights too

Agree, it's an underwhelming UKMO. Met Office still not seeing anything of note for next week either unless you live on a Scottish mountain. GFS 12z has me shrugging my shoulders. An even worse run than its 6z op although the 6z ensembles weren't bad and, like the 6z, the 12z op looks pretty mild compared to the suite (only out to the 18th so far). But the control does follow it GEM looks decent

Thanks I've seen worse. Much, much worse

Indeed. Sunday looks like change-over day but up until then, rubbish The 850s I posted are for London, of course, so it'll be more potent for your patch and most other northern areas. 6 days away so it could still get diluted but the trend is holding firm for now so hopefully that will continue as I know a lot of you in northern England haven't seen much, if any, snow.

Not the full set but GFS 850s ensembles look good if it's cold and seasonal you want. The op is on the warm side from 16th into the 17th Interesting to see what the full ensemble run looks like

That looks like a high pressure cell over the Azores to me Ali Even more so here and ridging into places we don't want it to ridge. It's FI so not worth debating but forgive me for not getting excited about a cool or, at best, rather cold PM flow that will deliver next to nothing or nothing IMBY (and PM flows often get watered down the nearer to T0 we get). As I say, Scotland, NI and Northern English and Welsh folk could do well, especially if they're on a hill or mountain As I say, seasonal, but nothing to warn the family and friends about

GFS FI and it looks like the Atlantic ridging, that was looking pretty potent at one stage, is just going to collapse back to the Azores or possibly - guess where!!! - Spain and Portugal A seasonal enough run for the UK but nowhere near deep cold air. Northern hills should do well

A cherry-picked single frame from the GFS but this is cold However, look at Iberia - high pressure all over Spain and Portugal like a cheap suit. The persistence of high pressure there, no matter what else is going on around it, is both incredible (for the sheer force of nature that it is) and irritating (f you want some seasonal winter weather) Then the high starts to ridge into it's 2nd favourite winter destination - France - despite impressive amplification to the NW