LRD

That pressure pattern is exactly what EC46 from last night was forecasting. I think we're going to be stuck between two opposing forces but that'll be no good for proper winter in the UK

I apologise for the 'told you so' tone of this post but I did point this out after the 12z ensembles came out yesterday. Most of us were in celebratory mood after the 12z op but it was clear that the 12z ensembles had warmed up quite considerably from yesterday's 6z and that we should keep that in mind. That trend has just continued Could flip back I guess but I wouldn't even waste a pound coin betting on it

Pretty difficult to not be deflated this morning Christmas now snowless (in the air and/or on the ground) since 2011 onwards in my back yard and there have been some real blow torch Xmas's in that run. We won't get a blow torch this year. 8C and perhaps some drizzle IMBY. Zzzzzz. From excitement to excrement MOGREPS continues to look ok a week from now but this suite has been putting cold back (for London) for days now. It was seeing cold on the 24th onwards a day or two back. Even on the 23rd in a couple of runs All the talk of whether the ECM is coupling trop and strat, their ensembles look to have gone colder for next week (London) Nothing spectacular but not mild either

Indeed, that's exactly what struck me. Very unusual to have such a strong signal at 5 and 6 weeks out. Might be something, might be nothing. If it does verify or something near it (it's a long old countdown!!!), then bravo EC46!

Another representation of week 6 on EC46

Good news - EC46 shows possible scandi high anomalies Bad news - in the 2nd half of January so unlikely to verify Jan 23rd - 30th Strong old signal at that range! But it's screaming cold and snow and a classic Next week could still go either way with strong anomalies to the west and NW but also to our SE. I'm guessing the SE heights will win because a high anomaly there - when pressure is usually relatively high (compared to Greenland) - must be pretty powerful

Uninspiring ECM ensembles. Op right at the top for the 23rd to the 25th but not much to get excited about here

From the 27th there looks to be 2 clusters, like on the GFS ensembles This feels like it's developing/trending into an all or nothing situation. Next week will either be very cold or very mild it seems to me. No halfway house. Could be wrong and it could be that's exactly what we end up with. I'm sensing not, though

MOGREPS still showing cold options Let's see what ECM ensembles and the 46 say in about 30-45 mins

ECM 240 Aside from some half-hearted attempts to ridge into Scandinavia, this wouldn't look out of place in many of the rank, mild winters we've had this last decade or so This is far from sorted, however, aside from the Met Office update and two GFS ops, it's been a 'meh' day Unfortunately, Christmas cold and even a little bit of snow now looks off the menu for my area for yet another year. Ho hum

That looks better than the 850s graph. GFS ens up to the 27th The mean is nowhere near as good as for the same day on the 6z. Don't mean to be a mood hoover as this place is great when cold is on the cards in the winter. I hope the op is right but this has thrown a bit of a spanner in the works It's really 50-50. Either the GH wins or the Euro High wins. Doesn't seem to be much middle ground. I have a feeling that either tomorrow or Wednesday will see a big swing to either mild or cold UKMO hasn't been great for a few runs and the MOGREPS ensembles look good north of B'ham but not so much south of the 2nd city. Cause for optimism but not too much confidence The big positive is the Met Office update

Differences between GFS and ECM at 192 are extreme! I think a backward step has been taken today (for a cold Xmas) despite the encouraging GFS runs and ensembles. If GFS wins this battle I'd be surprised, though

Yep, as suspected, ECM 168 is poor for cold You have to back ECM and UKMO over GFS I'm afraid but let's see what the ensembles say as well as MOGREPS

Similarities between ECM and GFS at 144 but the Atlantic low on the GFS is better aligned and shaped. ECM top, GFS 2nd ECM from 168 might not be great

MOGREPS ensemble chart still sees 24th/25th possibilities for 850s even for London. It does seem a bit isolated now though as other ensembles see a dip happening more towards the 27th. Also, I assume many colder runs would be more frosty than snowy IF the cold air does end up clearing London and the south coast Xmas Eve into Xmas Day I'd say it'd be a bit of a win for MOGREPS as they have been fairly consistent these last few days with that suggestion Better for the north of course

MOGREPS and UKMO op runs are giving us the most hope at the moment, although many GFS ensembles fall away from Xmas Day too

But it all means that June is more spring than summer and September is more summer than June. No chance! Anyway, I'll leave it there cos we're going off topic PS - you get snow in June?!!! Blimey I don't envy your climate!

Yep, the 24th and 25tth still looks like a pivotal period For the south it's 50-50. Further north cold is looking favourite ECM 850s - op is at the very top of the pack and, at times, a slight outlier. Yet again Not as bullish as MOGREPS at bringing in the cold by Xmas Eve but by Xmas Day more signs of a cool down Eagle Eye - sorry mate but I disagree. Winter is Dec, Jan, Feb. If winter started on 21st Dec that would make March more of a winter month than Dec and even though snow may or may not be more likely in March it's still early spring. Surely June is more of a summer month than Sept is but using the logic that winter begins on Dec 21st then summer begins on June 21st, making Sept more of a summer month than June. Which it isn't. Is it?

Christmas Day/Boxing Day onwards and some ensemble members plunge 850 temps Not full set but...

Depends on jet stream strength also I'd guess. This is the flip side of having a weak jet. A strong jet, tracking south would blow those heights away rather than leaving us with a risk of a meandering low doing nothing

If the forcing from the Greenland High is stronger than the Iberian heights than I assume the GH would push lows south which, in turn, would put too much pressure on Iberian heights and they would fall away. That's a balance that the models would have difficulties with at this range I'd imagine. Happy to be corrected if I'm wrong

MOGREPS 850s still trending down but still a fair bit of disagreement. The control (I think the thick blue line is the control) would be nice: Some good, but not great, progress, this morning, towards cold coming back by Friday. Certainly looks good from North Wales across to the Humber northwards. It's in the balance of course but going the right way for now

GFS 12z showing good consistency with its 6z version. Settling down by Boxing Day and probably frosty after a battle between cold and milder air masses on Xmas Eve and Day

The 0z MOGREPS ensembles were really bad Matt. Worst for weeks However, there has been a significant move for the better for the 6z (for Xmas Eve anyway) as you and Battleground Snow have pointed out. Quite a dramatic shift cooler/colder, considering it's only 6 hours after the 0z mild guff MOGREPS threw out (or threw up)