LRD

That 2nd chart is the absolute worst pattern imaginable for so-called winter. Just dreadful stuff if you want seasonal conditions. January 1989-esque As I thought yesterday, the models seem to be trending away from the, previously forecast, fall in pressure over Iberia and Europe. Or, at least, they're moving away from prolonging a period of lower pressure where coldies need it Fortunately, it's FI so it can and probably will change but the direction of travel isn't especially encouraging for cold

Thanks Catacol I've bolded a bit of your post to say that's exactly my concern. That the nearer we get to the time of forecast falls in southern and/or central European high pressure, the forecast changes and we find that we have ended up with heights hanging on. Over the years, Euro heights have proved far more stubborn than mid/long range forecasting advertises Fingers crossed it doesn't happen this time

Yep and even the other models are now showing some subtle hints that they've been underplaying Iberian Heights the last few days too (I may be wrong on that perception ans I've not looked at the models that much over the last 2 or 3 days). Happens a lot but hopefully, this time, a blip and/or it is just my imagination The PM flow that we might get early next week will probably get watered down to next to nothing too. It usually does. Met Office not seeing anything wintry for next week either.

Ha! That's where I can't agree! I like summer sports and sunny UK holidays. April-August warmth, cool/cold for most of the rest of the year for me. So your CFS update has got me even more fed up!!!

It's certainly been bonkers. 2022 was ridiculous warmth

For a split second, I thought your avatar was the UKMO 168! Silly me

March, yes. April, no thanks! That's always my concern with not having a winter - that the wintry patterns then emerge in spring. But even that hasn't really happened in recent years apart from 2021 Deep, deep FI will be cold I reckon, FWIW (very little) I wonder if an arctic high will have ensemble support

Another, no doubt, useless arctic high being modelled in FI

Absolutely no idea to be honest mate Just feels right - high pressure, stagnant air, following a period of precipitation and a cool down It's all moot - it'll have changed completely by the 18z

And then some English fog

Ooooh, a frost. And within 240 hours...

Agreed Feels like people have a pop at the Met when they aren't getting their own way weather-wise as if it's their fault. Kind of like... "It ain't snowing, the Met forecast no snow for the foreseeable but they're rubbish and get everything wrong anyway so I'm sure it will snow despite all evidence pointing the opposite" seems to be the attitude

Hope not. A cold spring* following a dross winter (if that's how it does, indeed, end up) would be the final insult *wouldn't mind a cold March to be fair as long as April and May are glorious and warm

I had snow too. But not much more than I had in a couple of childhood Novembers in the 80s I think NWS and I are talking more about the general trend rather than specifics. We WILL get a severe winter or, at least, a significant, lengthy, disruptive winter spell again. Maybe even this Feb. But those spells and those types of winters are just becoming all the more unusual

Yep. September is almost a summer month now, so summer is eating into autumn. But autumn has now virtually consumed winter except Feb which is an autumn/spring transition month. May is still variable but, my perception IMBY is, it's slowly becoming more like a summer month. Sept is definitely becoming more summery. That's why English cricket has been confident enough in Sept weather, these last couple of decades, to play more and more England international matches (ODIs, T20s and Tests) in September, knowing it's unlikely to be washed out

Hope you keep the curtains closed!! Yeah, days and days of 90F+ is just exhausting although I would rather those conditions in the summer than cool, cloudy and/or rainy. The only rainfall I like in the summer is the stuff that's associated with warm thunderstorms

Summer 2019 must have been decent where you are. I remember working in London that summer, regularly sweating on trains and tube. I think that was one of those summers where a lot of the heat was focused on the South East and East Anglia. I was on the East Coast at the end of July that year and it was roasting all week with huge thunderstorms at the end 2015-17 summers weren't great where I am but they weren't horrible either 2020 was also ok but it gets overshadowed by that amazingly sunny and warm April and May (and COVID) As I say, 2012 was the last summer that was truly grim IMBY Look at us, talking about summer on a winter moans thread. Sums the current 'winter' outlook up really - in recent times we mostly just have 'October' weather for 5 or 6 months from Oct-Feb/March

Good post I like warm weather in the summer but not 40C. In fact not really anything above 32C/90F I walked the dog at 9am today in a fleece, that's not that heavy, and T-shirt* and it was ok. If I didn't know the date, I'd have thought I fell asleep on New Year's Even and woke up on the 1st March rather than 1st January. This follows last year's spring-like New Year period too The change in Januarys from 1988 onwards (with a handful of exceptions) has been remarkable. Not good at all - I want cold in Nov, Dec, Jan and Feb - but still remarkable *I wore tracksuit bottoms too by the way!

That's true, of course, but it'd be a cool summer in an otherwise warming trend. And I wouldn't necessarily say 'every chance' either. I think the chances are against. That's not ruling it out, of course. And more days/weeks with temps above 40C in the Med are quite likely whatever our weather might do. I think Crewe is right about extremes in the Med. I wonder if we'll get residents of Spain, Greece and Portugal going north for their summer holidays because it is just too hot down there in the summer - reversing the trend of the last 60 years! We've had some indifferent 'nothing' sort of summers in Bedfordshire since 2012 but the last truly miserable summer here was 2012 and even that year the August wasn't too bad - got better just in time for the Olympics - but June/July were dreadful. I realise some in the North and especially North-West won't recognise what I'm saying there but I can only speak from a local perspective

Sorry, I thought you were saying cold synoptics are more likely in April/May than in winter? If you'd said March there might be some truth in that. Anyway, I'll leave it there. Wildly off topic

The stats don't lie my friend. Chilly Mays aren't that common either. 4 cooler than average Mays this century and 2 of them were only slightly cooler. https---www.metoffice.gov.uk-hadobs-hadcet-data-meantemp_monthly_totals.txt.urlhttps://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/meantemp_monthly_totals.txt I think cold synoptics being common in spring is a bit of a misconception / myth

ECMWF | ChartsECMWF - Charts.url ECMWF | Charts CHARTS.ECMWF.INT Here you go...

Possibly - I think that high anomaly is too far east and too weak but you never know, the model might be underestimating things

Those of you of a nervous disposition do not look at the ECM46. It's a shocker Luckily I don't really rate it - especially it's longer range output

Yeah mate, you are. Here have a chart: Which kind of sums up the uninteresting outlook hence why the conversation has drifted I s'pose. Often happens when things look completely dull. Feel free to move my posts mods