LRD

ECM op days 9 and 10 was an outlier but not an absolutely outrageous one

This is just not true Check out Weather History's post in one of the other threads and the stats he presents comparing Easter and Xmas snow EDIT: I see he has posted on here just now linking to his post

I hope not but I reckon you're right. Interesting to see the 168 chart later

No worries MetO at 144 starting to ridge towards Greenland although that is a mighty low in the Atlantic

Agreed, although, to be fair I'm expecting cold next month and realignment towards cold in the models from now on. It's just now a case of looking at how cold will it get. Looks nailed on from about the 4th, especially as the Met Office mid range forecast has upped the ante on cold, which is disappointing Expect a cold set of 12z runs

As I said to Alexis I am WELL aware of that. I can see what other models are showing having posted some of it in here. Plus, even if I wasn't aware, I couldn't avoid that fact in this thread as it's been mentioned once or twice But it's a model and I thought it worth showing

Yep I'm aware of that. Just commenting on what the model is showing right now

What a horrific thought MOGREPS 850s haven't been posted for a while I don't think. Signs that one or two members want to start dipping by the 1st weekend of March but it's an upward curve As I've already said, despite the cold 850s, temps are not predicted to be especially cold over the coming weekend where I live

Control run is nice. A few chilly/cold days, maybe even some snow showers for the south before things turn benign by the turn of the month. Milder days with cold nights Lovely stuff Funny that the GFS has been ridiculed most winter and now everyone loves it 'cos it's showing a northerly waft! The op continues its Jekyll and Hyde consistency. A warm outlier on the 0z and right at the bottom of the pack for the 6z Despite that bottom-of-the-pack run, I still strongly favour cold to win out next month, unfortunately. Might be significant cold. But it might also be 7C and rain with snow on some northern hills and mountains

Thanks to you, Nick F and bluearmy for responding. I get that temps can plummet in showers but then we're left with the scenario of falling snow, lying for 10 minutes before the sun comes out and melts it. Pretty difficult to get enthused over on-the-ground conditions in that scenario. But, then, I guess I'm not really wanting cold now we're about to tip over to March However, I take bluearmy's point that there is some pure meteorological interest in how this plays out. I understand that some if us are interested in that aspect

Those charts all look very cold. But the Met Office are currently predicting 8C and cloudy for MBY for Tuesday With this time of year's increasing solar input, coupled with the background warming, we would need uppers at -10 or below to give anything of significance. And those predictions currently look in pretty short supply at the moment. Not to say that won't or can't change of course but -4 to -7 uppers won't produce much unless you're on a northern hill or mountain. It'll be getting colder. How much colder is very much in doubt. Look at the ECM ensembles - barely any touch -10 and those that do, only do so briefly We'll see how it plays out

And ECM was at the top of the pack from the 1st

Very long - December 2024 GFS op and control right near the bottom of the pack but a definite colder trend from 5 March, unfortunately

Yes I know what you mean. But I don't feel interest even if models advertise cold in winter these days - even in the reliable. If it snows outside my window (in Dec, Jan and early Feb) then I enjoy it but I've become less and less worried about it. Would rather a nice spring and summer

I'm exactly the same. I used to get all wound up when ANOTHER phantom cold spell disappeared but, now, I don't really care. I keep an eye on things but not to any great depth and it's just a shrug of the shoulders if a modelled cold spell disappears these days. I would like to see Dec (especially Xmas) and Jan cold but if it doesn't happen, meh Winter model watching is pretty boring for me now

ECM 850s Op was a cold run from the 27th compared to the pack

Yep another April and May 2020 would be great Followed by summer 1990, 1995, 2018 or 2022 (but with more thunderstorms)

I don't find myself in this thread from Nov to early Feb but this time of year I do. The prospect of a cold spring is thoroughly depressing. As you say March 2013 was awful. Just produced loads of grey, cold depressing rubbish with hardly any snow where I live. At least March 2018 produced some snow and some wintry sun. Having said that I don't care too much about what March does but I want April and May to be mild/pleasant/warm There are those cheering on April cold on the model thread. Each to their own but, as you say, cold in April is utterly pointless. Just stunts or destroys any growth that we've had before an April cold spell and hardly ever produces anything of note unless you live on a mountain or a high hill in the north. A couple of snow showers where the snow melts as soon as the sun comes out is useless. Followed by damaging frosts Fortunately, we have had plenty of warm Aprils this century so hopefully that trend continues

A projection for 2026 based on AMO cycles is still probably more accurate than your average GFS op run at 300+ hours

Looking at those (and thanks for posting them) it still amazes me how much high pressure/anomalously high pressure we have had over or near the UK and NW Europe since around July/Aug 2021. 18 months of high pressure domination aside from one or two spells No sign of it ending

Yep good points Met Office/GLOSEA can't win. They go for cold but it doesn't come off and then people stamp their feet and whine about the Met getting their hopes up and "why did they mention cold if there was any doubt". They DON'T go for cold and they are apparently "behind the curve and why are they refusing to mention cold". As you say, an SSW is difficult to model and things are always uncertain when one happens and they're crucified for daring to get things wrong frim time to time. If I didn't know better, I'd say some of that is part of the broader narrative spouted by some that says that "Public sector - bad. Private sector - good". When they both have strengths and weaknesses (having worked in both worlds)

Reminds me of winter 2020-21 where, despite good looking pressure patterns, Europe was just too warm for anything of interest (although the north did well that winter) Also ties in with the Met Office update

Sure does but (and I said this in the MetO outlook thread) the wording they use is describing a scenario where there is some high pressure influence to the north and low influence to the south but they still do not see significant cold. A subtle reshaping of what I assume is lows stalling to our SW could happen where those lows end up further east over Europe and we're in a cold pattern. It looks like the short term models that we see every day are upgrading the cold from next midweek onwards. And the Met office are not seeing anything even in the short term. But it will get colder. But it's been so mild these last few days that colder could just mean 7C with some watery sunshine and nothing wintry except a bit of frost

Spot on. Every year, from about late Feb (but EVEN earlier this year), the nonsense about snow being more common at Easter than Xmas is constantly rolled out You gave the stats to disprove that old chestnut but people will still say it!

Thanks. Those pressure mean charts are more helpful than anomalies IMO. Shows the centre of the 'high' that was on the anomaly chart a bit further south. Over north Scotland as opposed to between Iceland and Norway. Might not look much but will give different surface conditions. Certainly getting colder but how cold remains to be seen