LRD

I thought warm SST's in that area encouraged high pressure? One of the things to look out for in terms of Atlantic SST's in the run up to winter is the tripole of 1) warm north Atlantic, 2) colder central Atlantic and 3) warm tropical Atlantic. It's something that Gav Partridge looks out for. Have I misunderstood something?

Is that true? A negative AO can lead to strong Scandinavian high pressure systems even with a positive NAO and lows over Greenland. It makes cold spells a little less likely without a negative NAO too, granted, but not impossible as long as the jet is pretty weak which (unless I've misunderstood things) it would be with a negative AO. Apologies if I have that wrong Not sure if Feb 91 or Jan 87 had a neutral or positive NAO. Again, might be wrong

I don't know the nature of MetO's forecast of NE winds (was this on the TV?) but I doubt they would look at one suite of model runs and confidently proclaim that it's going to pan out in a particular way, especially with the low confidence expressed in their written updates and the inconsistency of some modelling. Maybe they presented that as only one option of many? Unless their in-house models (are they the MOGREPS and DECIDER models) are showing something we're not privy to? I wish Ian still felt free to post in here Sorry mods - I know this is veering a little off-topic but it is kind of model-related too

That's the point I was trying (badly) to make about the UKMO. Its consistency is impressive (presuming it is proved right, of course!). The other models have either gone down the wrong road (maybe) or have flipped between solutions (although the ECM hasn't chopped and changed an awful lot either).

I know it hasn't won yet but paint it any way you want, the ECM and GFS have both moved to UKMO, if not completely... yet. The UKMO still looks like it would go cold too but it'll take a much longer time. Probably looking at 12-15 Jan for real cold The UKMO said 'no' to the Dec 2012 freeze when others said 'yes'. But, more positively, it also said 'yes' to the Jan 2013 cold spell when the others weren't convinced. If the movement continues towards UKMO in the morning I think we can call another victory for the mighty UKMO. Not much talk about MOGREPS and DECIDER on here lately. What time frames do those models look at?

I see an Atlantic high ridging northwards and the UK high seems to be wanting to take a holiday to western Scandinavia. Trends are still good although the 12zs have been a little sobering. Met Office update was decent

Here we go again. Another 'why waste money investing in models when they always get it wrong?' type comment. A lot of which we've had this winter becasue people set too much stall in individual op runs and then wind up disappointed. ECM has never really showed freezing cold but has shown building blocks to that. The ECM, for me, has actually been really good this winter

I agree that folk should always treat longer range modelling with caution but can't agree with your reasoning. There is obviously something that's being fed into the computers (and the way they are interpreting this info/data) to make them churn these projections out... regardless of what teleconnections are or are not saying (and also regardless whether or not these forecasts verify). So the computers are seeing some scientific reason to come to the current conclusions they're coming out with - positive teleconnections or not. As I say they might not verify but that doesn't mean they should be dismissed - if the models are throwing certain scenarios out, then, by definition they must be possible If that makes any sense at all! However, I do suspect things might be watered down nearer the time as often happens but I obviously hope they don't and, indeed, 'upgrade' (for ice, snow and cold)

Yep, that's true but the last 2 or 3 days we have had absolutely nothing positive to go on. It may come to nought, of course, but at least we have straws to clutch this evening

Yes, I've had a quick run through them too. Fair number of Atlantic and Greenland heights to varying degrees. The control run looks decent. Admittedly most, if not all, of the eye candy is in FI but far more promising than it was only 24 hours ago. A better day models-wise so far today Control: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=192&carte=0&mode=0

I was commenting on Ian's update mate. It indicates a 'nothing' pattern going forward with high pressure in exactly the wrong place a la 1988-89. I wasn't commenting on the Xmas weekend. Your response is talking about a completely different timescale to what I was referring to. In fact in an earlier post I do refer to this weekend being of interest but there has been a lot of nothing before that and Ian's update indicates a lot of nothing after This morning's ECM and FI on the GFS does look more promising this morning, however

Completely agree

Thanks Ian Got to say that's a horrible update for someone like me who wants something resembling a winter. It sounds very 1988-89. Mild and dry. The worst winter weather possible. No cold but a lot of nothingness I thought that positive anomalies to the west of the UK might give us colder temps though. Or is it HP sitting pathetically just to the west and SW and so tropical atlantic air is moving over the top of it?

Thanks. Looking at that, I am struggling to contain my excitement and heart rate at the sheer boredom of it all Utterly awful. Amongst the very worst of a really bad bunch of runs from the models of late

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=12&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 Randomly looking at GFS ensembles and found this amongst a really poor bunch. A lot of heights over France according to many of the other members

I can tell you when the models predict warm and it turns out cold - the summer Although wasn't a mild winter predicted in 2009? 2009-10 was a cold one. Sorry mods - barely on topic. I'll shut up now

I wonder if things went the other way (long range models predicting mild but weather turned out cold) whether there would be this type of ranting against long range models. It's a science that's improving but it will still get things wrong Some of the talk in here about LR models reminds me of the Simpsons episode where the residents of Springfield went to destroy the observatory because of an asteroid that was threatening them! Dropping long range models and forecasts won't stop our winters becoming ever more wet and warm and, well, boring. I'm as frustrated with the lack of winter (yet again) so far as anyone and the models showing pressure builds from the south are really disheartening. It's just all been so boring this last 3 months or so. As a weather enthusiast, it'd be nice to have some weather to talk about (this weekend's gales aside). Our weather seems to have been stuck in 'various types of October' for the last 3 and a bit winters and with high pressure to the south being constantly modelled there is no way out of it in the near future. Ian's update was not promising for cold either. Still, never mind eh?

Well you mentioned Christmas eve and Christmas day which isn't day 10 Anyway ECM shows interest at day 10 so let's hope this is a new trend that builds momentum and ends up verifying

How predictable that when the models show the possibility of the Atlantic throwing something at us that you don't want, you down play the Atlantic's influence... when you build its influence up at all other times. As it happens, I think the Christmas storminess will get down graded. That was a really good point made by someone else earlier - that the GFS underplays heights to the south

Would be good to see pressure readings from ensemble members for that part of the world. Might be more telling than 850s perhaps?

Thanks Nick As a lurker I've been through purgatory model-watching in winters gone by - 2015/16 being right up there of course. Just when you think we are getting a handle on longer term predictions then the models spring a surprise This is a great forum though with loads of superb contributors. Will leave it there as I'm barely on topic!

Evening all First post. Been a long time lurker. I wish my 1st post was able to talk about positives! The models look shocking and after all the expectation, the last few days, as realisation has started to sink in that cold was becoming an ever-distant prospect, have been a real disappointment to folk like me who like cold in winter. Got to say that I don't ever recall a winter where the longer term models have been proved so wrong (so far). Don't think we should be giving up on longer term models though. GLOSEA has performed well in the past. Some have been calling to stop bothering with longer term models but that's defeatist. Got to keep learning and improving understanding. That's what science is about