LRD

So you don't hold out much hope of cold in the next fortnight BA? Got to say it doesn't look great (at least in the shorter term) but if, IF that UKMO 168 chart comes off...

It's not been a great morning, let's face it, but that isn't a bad chart at all. Purples struggling to establish in Greenland, ridges of high pressure punching their way into the arctic and the jet taking a southerly track. On the less positive side, we've seen plenty of wintry charts (or at least charts that feature that dreaded word - POTENTIAL) that have proved to be false dawns already this season. I am generally optimistic that cold and snow will feature strongly this winter though

At least it's cold zonal weather, we might see one flake of snow over Ben Nevis so it's not all that bad

Totally agree. It becomes meaningless if you give a blanket red There's this thing that sits in our skulls. It's called a brain. If there are weather warnings out there and if you look out of the window and see that it's rough, we use that brain to make a judgement on whether to venture out. If we do and we come a cropper, we then can't go crying to the media about it or criticising met service providers. Take the responsibility and say to yourself 's**t, I really should have heeded those warnings. I've learned a lesson'. But, no, it's always someone else's fault.

In the spirit of debate... Snow is difficult to predict days in advance. And I thought the chances of heavy snow were well forecast and publicised, especially for the SW. It changed red quite late, yes, but the amber warning should have been enough to put people off from using transport networks To be fair the cold weather was well-advertised in advance. There were warnings not to travel. Yet people still travelled. Those people whinging to the media this morning about being stuck on a car or a train - this is going to sound bad but I really have no sympathy. They were warned. I'm very sorry people died and I don't know the circumstances but if we're now thinking along similar lines to what you're hinting at (quote: 'I'm not saying they have blood on their hands but...') then public services won't dare do anything for fear of being sued. Just encouraging an ambulance-chasing culture. As you rightly said, perhaps people need to take responsibility themselves instead of whining about something happening when common sense would suggest they shouldn't really need advice from anyone. The other issue is if the Met Office screamed that 'snowmageddon' was coming and the forecast failed then people would accuse them of crying wolf and ignoring them in the future Also why should it be just the MO that gets a kicking - there are other forecast providers out there. Should we go after them too?

Here in Bedfordshire, it's the LEAST from the East! And not a lot in the forecast either except what will probably be a snow to rain event on Friday. Most snow shower activity in the North East and East Midlands

Dear me, that is a huge flip to mild. Let's see what it all looks like this time tomorrow

Fair point

Last word on this so as not to derail the thread - yes, agreed, GFS gets flak. So IF it is right, then it would have spotted this first and deserves credit. Not personifying anything. It's just a phrase. If something gets criticism it should also get credit. Can't work just one way And this is from someone who thinks (knows!) that ECM is the best freely available model

I think it's a blip today. I'm sure I recall that last Saturday's model runs briefly showed the next few days and the cold spell not happening at all. Then Sunday brought it all back and it has been plain sailing to this cold spell all week since then No science behind it but I have a gut feeling that the runs will show that low further south by this time tomorrow and the cold being extended

UKMO and ECM have just followed it. The trend is pretty bad. OK I should have said 'bravo GFS for.... if this does come off' Fair enough?

That chart is ok of course but the trend of the movement of that low pressure is a really poor one today for longevity of the cold. Models wobbled this time last week about the spell even happening in the first place. I'm expecting this to be a blip but no dressing today's runs up. Bravo GFS for first spotting this trend for the too-round low getting too close to us

I am not a massive fan of the GFS but if Friday does become a snow-rain event for the south, followed by a warmer wash out after that, kudos to it. It was the first to start pushing that low too close to us for comfort Let's see what ECM says but UKMO has also moved and trended towards the low-moving-very-close to us option

I'll admit it, a little bit of wee nearly came out when I saw this...

Yeah, ok, fair enough we get that... but rising heating costs are down to rip off energy companies. That ain't the weather's fault

Yes, it's far better than the already brilliant Icon

Superb! The Azores Low disrupts and heads more East dampening down my minor worry about that Low moving NE. That is a stunner

That's excellent. I'm at risk of labouring a point but we want that Azores Low to scoot through into the Med quickly. Otherwise it might inflate heights over Spain and Portugal

I'm not moaning or trolling but that low pressure off the western coast of France in your 2nd image is getting a bit too close for comfort and could be a threat in terms of prolonging this upcoming spell. Not sure it's disrupting quite enough and it might leave the door open for Iberian heights. I think we'll still be ok and it's a week away It is something I'll be watching out for in tonight's and the morning's runs. We want that low moving East and not North East

I'm confident because what we know about the background drivers and the long wave pattern makes the output feel 'right'. Ordinarily, I'd be negative but not this time

2013 was only 5 years ago mate. Didn't have an adverse effcet then. If we were looking at polar maritime air then I'd agree with you. We're talking about severe Siberian ploar continental air. That can be very cold all the way until early April. What is being shown, by ECM especially, this morning is an extremely cold set up that would rival that March. If the weather is coming from the right direction it doesn't matter abut a strengthening sun I think we should expect some ups and downs in the models and manage responses to every run with that in mind but I'm increasingly confident of seeing the wintriest (for low-lying southern England) week since 2013 from about Saturday/Sunday

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=18&time=252&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref Good grief. A couple of days off work or working from home I think

Bloody hell, at this range they are stunning means. But aren't they from last night?

Excellent. I'm well chuffed that NAVGEM is on board

Those ensembles aren't actually as good as I thought they might be. For coldies this really will be feast or famine. No middle ground or consolation prize. Will be fascinating looking back at this and see what went right and/or wrong