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LRD

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Everything posted by LRD

  1. LRD
    I agree and this isn't based on any scientific analysis at all but I think not only will this happen but with the added bonus that it will be brought forward by 24-48 hours The models will start to accelerate the Easterly over the next couple of days
  2. LRD
    That's why I said that it doesn't look good on face value Look at all the greens to our north. Blocky Onto the 12z run of the GFS and BOOOOOOOM... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=12&time=312&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref This would result in the coldest February spell since 2009 or 2010. Possibly even 1996
  3. LRD
    A cold spell seems inevitable now Even this from the 06z run of the GFS... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=6&time=288&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref ...has a lot of northern 'blockiness' even though, on face value, it doesn't look good for cold weather
  4. LRD
    NH profile isn't without interest though
  5. LRD
    Noted. Cheers BA
  6. LRD
    The modelled purples aren't part of the PV? Yes, the modelled mobile weather from next weekend shouldn't be a surprise as it's been touted for a while
  7. LRD
    Even without blocking it looks like the polar vortex might threaten the UK from Christmas. Jan 1984-esque If we can't have 'classic' cold I'd love to see some of those runs - that have the PV close to or over us - verify to see what that would actually produce on the ground (rain, snow, gales - at least it'll be some weather to talk about). With, hopefully, the Az/Euro High pushed way south and south west too
  8. LRD
    Can't rememeber if it was a tweet by Ian Fergusson or Chris Fawkes but I think one of those fellas was the source
  9. LRD
    Thanks for the replies Karlos and ArHu3
  10. LRD
    Notable cold spell? Not for me. It was standard really. If we're relying on a SSW and Glosea is losing the signal for one in January, it's a worry
  11. LRD
    Of a massive 5 days, yes. Legendary stuff. OK let me ask the question in a different way which might negate a sarcastic response... have we ever had below average winter months without a SSW playing a part?
  12. LRD
    I should know this but can NW Europe have a cold spell without a SSW? Or have SSWs been proved to be the be all and end all? Surely we've had cold spells without them? Glosea is a good model so this is disappointing news
  13. LRD
    You've posted a chart from Dec 1987 there dude Presuming you meant to find an image of Dec 1986 to demonstrate what was happening before that glorious fortnight in Jan 87?
  14. LRD
    With respect don't those links just show blips in an otherwise upward trajectory of temperatures - especially in the Arctic? https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/monitoring/climate/surface-temperature
  15. LRD
    So the arctic isn't warming then? Is that what you're saying? Or have I misunderstood? As I say severe cold or not (in the UK) a warming arctic is a worry
  16. LRD
    The GEM (yes, I know) offers more northwards movement of the High
  17. LRD
    But, as I've pointed out earlier on, the high has shifted northwards compared to yesterday. If it continues to do that we might find ourselves foggy and frosty. Admittedly, at the moment, it does look like it's going to settle at exactly the right place to bring us a whole load of nothing. I'd rather it be right over us (possible frost and fog) or way south to let in some lively Atlantic interest. If we can't have snow/ice/frost, let's have some heavy rain and gales
  18. LRD
    I'm not talking about the effect, or not, on our winters Feb. I'm worried about the planet. Having an arctic region that warm is massively worrying. But I'll leave it there as we're going off topic
  19. LRD
    Totally agree BB62-63. Very worrying.
  20. LRD
    A clear movement of high pressure northwards compared to yesterday's model runs. Too early to say 'trend' but if subsequent runs continues to nudge that high north (it was over France on yesterday's ECM for example), we could well see a cold, frosty, possibly foggy run up to Christmas via an inversion. Depends how much cloud gets caught up in it I s'pose.
  21. LRD
    Stretching from Spain to the Eastern Seaboard of North America, the Azores High is absolutely huge and bloated on that chart. Like a sumo wrestler who has really let himself go. The '5 bellies' high
  22. LRD
    Mind might be playing tricks but didn't GLOSEA call a cold winter back in Nov 16? That's what triggered all those wintry long rangers that METO were coming out with late autumn/early winter last year I agree with your comment, in general, though
  23. LRD
    Yup very true. To be fair to GLOSEA, though, I think last winter was the first time you could say it bust. And, at times in January it was a near miss for deep cold for the UK. I know a near miss may as well be a massive miss but, in terms of forecasting global weather patterns, it wasn't that far out. They've got to keep pushing and testing the science though.
  24. LRD
    I'm guessing the models that the METO have access to (but that we don't) have been seeing something blocky as the METO updates have been hinting at it. But, unfortunately it keeps getting pushed back. The blocked theme was first touted at Christmas which would have been marvellous. Now it's the new year
  25. LRD
    The latter stages of the ECM are a bit of a horror show for those who want to see cold BUT ...there are signs that pressure is building to the NE in FI and the seemingly inevitable mild spell is getting pushed back even if it is only by a matter of hours I don't mind a spell of Atlantic weather as long as it's lively and interesting. The later frames from ECM will be both mild and dry for the south. Or, to put it another way it will be BORING for the south
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