LRD

Date records will fall there for sure. For warmth* *It won't of course but, you know, if others can make wild claims so can I

GFS 'leading the way'

Oh boy, forget it. We're making the same point from different angles but if you wanna argue, fine, but I can't be arsed Night everyone - getting tense in here

I say this in my post you responded to ...there is no way it's headed anywhere except warmth for at least a week, probably more But surely no day 10 chart should be taken literally? And, looking at the 850s ensemble graph it is an outlier

Fair enough. I've heard/seen it all before though. As I say, I think cold will win by about the 7th or 8th (pushed back from 4th or 5th) but the flip-flopping of opinions between 'favoured' models just because one is showing something that some (not all) people want at a particular moment in time is laughable at times. I get the cherry-picking but I think there needs to be posts balancing that sort of stuff out. Otherwise this place just becomes an cold echo chamber that parrots 'cold, cold, cold' opinions. Some would like that, of course, the way non-cold winter opinions sometimes get piled on Having said all that the ECM op is a warm run and an outlier at the end (which I said it would be) and cold is favoured IMO Night all

Not being funny but people have been having a pop at both the GFS and the Met Office all winter and now... FWIW I'm backing cold to win the day next month (not that I want it to) but I've got to question some of the reasoning

OK mate. Let's agree to disagree, yeah?

As I say, it won't look like that but I can only see that high settling over us or sinking south

When was the last time a day 10 chart EVER verified exactly as shown? I'm not denying it would sink. Where did I say that it wouldn't? Quite the opposite in fact. Are you replying to the right person?

Cool. So why do you think the derided GFS is 'leading the way'? Thay day 10 ecm won't verify but if it does, there is no way it's headed anywhere except warmth for at least a week, probably more

Blimey, he's allowed a day off here and there ain't he?

Except we could probably do with a drop of rain sooner rather than later It'll be an outlier I reckon but those last 2 ecm frames... if only it was July

The same GFS that has been ridiculed all winter since the upgrade? THAT Gfs?

Winter is com... oh

Never said -10s is an absolute by the way. Just that's probably what's needed (or very close to that) along with other factors such as dew points. But have you got a chart with 850s from that month? I imagine that 850s were down to -10 at some point before that snowy spell (for the north). That cold then embedded at the surface which then helped snow fall in higher 850s And we're talking northern England, much of which is hilly. I'm talking lowland snow. I barely saw a flake IMBY, by the way, in March 2013 Anyway, I'll leave it there. Pub calls

I was, of course, speaking in general terms. The trend for Feb has been one of encroaching spring and pretty boring conditions

As I've said a couple of times now - that involved embedded, surface cold. I wonder what the 850s were at the start of that spell. Can't be bothered to look to be fair. To get an initial spell of sticky March snow for lowland UK, especially in the south, then -5s won't do it I'm afraid 2013 was a really rare event

As I say, probably with cold already embedded. I think Matt H mentions the -10 parameter too somewhere on this thread Not impossible of course with 6s and 7s but I don't think you and I are going to see much unless the 850s get down to -10. Might get away with -8s. That's for sticking snow too, of course. Might see it in the sky but it won't stick

Yep and coldies/snowies are likely to need -10s at this time of year for anything of significance for lowland UK. Although, I believe, snow can fall in higher 850 temps, even in March, if there is already embedded surface cold (happy to be corrected on that one)

GFS 6z op and control have had a lovers tiff and gone their separate ways We can probably disregard both for the time being Even with some dramatic synoptics amongst ensemble members, there are still hardly any runs reaching -10 850s and below. Those 850s will hopefully stay away until Nov/Dec now

Predictable (and consistent) is usually boring in autumn and winter Your New York example is, at least, interesting

Yep agreed And, in recent times, this Feb has had some pretty stiff competition Blimey, even when we didn't get cold in the past we, at least, got some stormy weather and that other side of winter was interesting even if not necessarily wanted. Lately, it's juts a load of benign nothingness. We must have the most boring climate in the world at and around our latitude Said it before and I'll say it again - winter model/weather watching is becoming increasingly boring and fruitless. Really very quickly losing interest in this hobby, although summer can still be of interest in terms of warm extremes True - I hope it's going to be warm rain

Cards on the table - I do not want cold. If this was anytime between late Nov and early Feb I'd be all for it. There are other reasons that I don't want March cold this year that I won't bore you with but it involves outdoor events and a stag do BUT... I feel that some people are writing off this potential cold a bit early. I know it's FI and an op run but this chart ...suggests to me that there are forces pushing the jet on a more southerly route and flattening any potential ridging of the Az High "So what", I hear you cry. But, coupled with these ensemble graphs from GFS and ECM (especially ECM) ...there are plenty of colder options on the table. A strong cluster of sub -5 850s on the ECM from about the 6th. Yes, it's getting pushed back and, yes, for anything of note we now need -10s and below due to increased solar input. But that's a strong signal this far out Then when you consider the anomaly chart that @mushymanrob has recently posted, then I'm still favouring a cold spell weeks 2 and 3 of next month. It won't be deep and crisp and even snow, I don't think, but snow will fall in various parts of the country. In the north it may even hang around for a while I hope none of that happens and it'll be a mild March which then leads to a warm April, May and summer but I do fear a cold March and April is on the way. Coupled with another awful winter (although I did see snow lie for around a week in December at least) that will be a real kick in the proverbials

Day 10 - the coldest place on Earth

My thoughts exactly If this was Dec or Jan I suppose I'd be disappointed (but not surprised) at the huge downgrades (for cold) in this morning's runs. Although even in Dec and Jan I'm not sure I care that much anymore, as I've said on here before Still got a horrible feeling that March and April are going to be cold and grim though