LRD

850s GFS ensemble headlines: 1) GFS 12z op is right at the bottom of the pack from about the 27th 2) However, the possible colder spell from next Wednesday/Thursday looks to be increasing in longevity with more of the suite remaining cold or, at least, cool than we've seen these last few days Nothing dramatic but the option of a quick warm up looks to be losing ground

It's a dreaded anomaly chart. So, it's not necessarily representing a high centred in that position. Because pressure is often low to our north a high anomaly might just mean that pressure is less low there - but it might still be low! The anomaly charts that John Holmes and mushyman use have contours which give a better indication for what's really being modelled Having said that, I think the chances of cold for the last few days of Feb into very early March have increased over the last 24 hours

Really good update from Met Office for those who do not want to see a cold spring However, the way the extended update is worded, although a significant downgrade for cold, things could still change to a colder and wintry outlook nearer the time. If they're seeing low pressures tracking south it could mean that they see lows stalling to our SW which would just pump warm air (and possibly lots of rain for the south) towards the UK. But if the low pressures do track into central Europe the winds would soon turn into a cold direction So, if you're hoping for a warm/mild/pleasant spring (from mid-March onwards, I certainly am) I wouldn't be celebrating just yet Or it could be that we get cold pressure patterns but there just won't be deep cold over Europe to tap into. Perhaps a more SE'ly element to the wind direction rather than E'ly or NE'ly I also suspect what might happen over the weekend/into next week is the short-term prospects for cold might be upgraded by the Met Office. Short-term gain for long-term pain for those of a cold persuasion, maybe?

Good points but I'm surprised we haven't seen more GFS runs and ensemble suites playing around with the idea of cold for NW Europe as a result of the SSW. And weren't some folk on here saying that from 24th/25th we could start to see things translating to the surface in some model runs? Might be wrong on that There are some colder runs in tonight's GFS 850s suite but overall, I thought things might start to look colder towards the end of these runs by now as the models play around with what the SSW might do Maybe by midweek we'll start seeing some cold or very cold op runs and ensembles I also take the point others have made that the GFS has been poor since the so-called upgrade but I still would have been expecting some eye-candy for those who want a cold end to winter and start of March

Since it's quiet with everyone holding their breath for what the SSW will do and with the charts looking tedious for now, thought I'd pose this question. Don't know if a thread like this has been done before. Probably has but, as per thread title, what is your ideal weather year by previous months based on years gone by? Mine (in my lifetime, not that I can recall the 70s very well) Jan - 1979, 82, 85 or 87. 2010 too Feb - 1979 or 1985 March - Don't care April - 2020 (preferably not with the pandemic to accompany it) May - 2020 June - 1996 - I think this month was quite thundery July - 1983, 1984, 1990, 1994, 1995, 2003, 2006, 2018, 2019 August - 1983, 1990, 1995, 2003 or 2022 September - don't really mind nor can I remember too much but let's say 1986 or 1993 October - Don't care/can't remember November - 1980 or 1985 December - 1981, 2009, 2010 The caveat with the summer months is I can't recall when, exactly, warm/hot but thundery versions of those months occurred but, if I could, I'd throw those in too Moderators - please move if you think that's appropriate

To be fair, that's quite strong language by the normal standards of these updates. Especially this far out. I sense a cold March is coming. As long as it's followed by a warm April and May, fine

The South Pole!

With respect mate, this winter should not be mentioned anywhere near the same breath as 2 of those winters you listed. This has been the Diet Coke, caffeine free, no taste version of 81-82 and 2010-11. If winters were similar to those 2 every year, that'd be great. I'd love a frigid Dec 1981 or 2010 and/or a Jan 1982 every year if it meant sacrificing Feb This year, well, it looks like we're sacrificing Feb anyway but without the pay off of a special December and/or January

Just this minute looked at GFS, ECM and UKMO inc ensembles for ECM and GFS... and, yep, 1998 was the immediate thought that popped into my head In 1998 we paid for it with a pretty awful spring so I hope that doesn't happen. In 2019 I think spring was ok but can't really remember But if the models are correct, we look like having another Feb which has more spring-like characteristics than winter ones. Autumn is eating into winter from one end and spring is eating into winter from the other

Very mild in Bedfordshire today. It's like mid-March out there. Wore 3 layers walking the dog and I was far too warm. February's increasingly spring-like character rears its head again this year. Very early in the month of course so it could change Although we might see a frost or 2 next week Looking forward to the end of this winter and hope we don't get a cold spring although not fussed about March either way. I have a gut feeling a cool/cold spring is on the way, though. Joy

Yes, totally agree. I've learned to stop using them and rely on Mushyman and John H to comment on the ones that include the contours as my reading of them is poor

They have indeed. And that insight is helpful for me cos I'm not brilliant at reading those particular charts. They're not the only anomaly charts out there either, of course. Meteociel like their anomaly charts. Whichever anomaly model is used, they're so often misinterpreted

Yep. It's a point I've laboured and laboured and laboured on here. Beware of anomaly charts bearing wintertime (cold) gifts. Pressure over Greenland is usually pretty low. So, a positive anomaly shown there has to be positive-on-steroids to mean anything in that area. Pastel pinks aren't going to cut it. Deep reds/blacks might

Absolutely spot on. I pay hardly any attention to anomaly charts anymore unless they're showing very, very strong anomalies

You shouldn't have to defend anything really. It's a model, you're discussing and highlighting that model in the model thread of a weather forum. It's strange that you're always challenged on reliability of the stuff you like to use (when it isn't showing cold in winter and you're calling that), yet plenty of us happily post a 300h GFS chart (sometimes totally cherry-picked from the ensemble suite - not even the op!) showing cold and 'reliability' is never questioned Whenever someone calls mild, they often get called negative on here even if they've shown loads of model-based evidence that mild will win out. I call it realistic not negative! Better than being deluded Anyway, GFS and its 850s ensemble suite have moved significantly away from a deep cold outlook. Cool, dry, some frost and, to be honest, pretty boring conditions (as they've been the past week IMBY) looks the way forward

They do seem far more reliable. You often get people jumping down your throat when they dare be wrong on occasion but their reliability, in general, looks good to me. I'm not very good at reading those charts so you and John H's interpretations are helpful

Why, being such a cold run, does that increase the chances of it being right?

Which suggests that the 'bigger picture' set up is not conducive to a significant cold spell However, the nuances and more localised developments could still mean one develops

Well, you can if it's wrong!

No. But it won't be especially cold either. Frosts might be a thing if it's a 'clean' pattern

GFS coming in for some stick this morning because of 2 or 3 op runs. But its ensembles were never convincing regards cold UKMO 168 is grim if it's cold you want. Except if you're Greek or from the Balkans Cold spring is a possibility. But I really, really hope not

ECM - an 850s warm outlier for about 3 days

Unusual chart from GFS 12z at 144

Feb 1991 just goes to show you can have a strong PV over Greenland and still get cold

Yeah, sure, I noticed that. The charts you posted are much more helpful. Thanks