LRD

Well, it's not Narnia in FI but it certainly ain't mild either. That High is toppling in though. Mild by Boxing Day I'd have thought (if that pans out like that of course) But, let's face it, hopes of a proper cold spell over Xmas are fading fast. It's been a poor day for those prospects really

Thanks again. That's a helpful explanation

Another unconvincing attempt by the high pressure system to reach Greenland But I'm sure the ridging to Greenland is continually being brought forward in time. So that's something

Thanks Nick. That's really strange. SW wind, high uppers and only producing those temps.

The trend towards that is obvious though. Exact details to be determined but an exceptionally warm spell from about the 16th or 17th is the front runner. The south might escape the worst of the warmth under an inversion but even that's doubtful

I know weather apps aren't up to much but I'm still seeing 7s and 8s for next weekend onwards. It'll be double that I reckon

Hello darkness my old (winter) friend

Well, it's not negative - people are just commenting on what we can all see on the models. No point deluding ourselves and misleading others and looking for positives that aren't there. Having said that, there is little point in analysing every op run and nothing cold was expected as a result of the MJO cycle until Xmas Day IIRC (and that might have now been put back until New Year (surprise, surprise - mild is hardly ever delayed is it?!)) Speaking of the MJO - it and other teleconnections are important drivers of our weather, of course, but they do not guarantee anything this far out (if we're talking about a cold Xmas week, for example). I think some are putting an awful lot of their eggs in the MJO basket when it's just another forecast at the moment with absolutely no guarantees

No convincing signs of deep cold for Xmas from the GFS ensembles The ECM clusters started to look really shaky from yesterday and things haven't improved (for cold that is)

Welcome. Good first question to which I can not answer! Someone on here probably can though

Christmas is still up for grabs (I reckon it'll get colder but not spectacularly so) but it's grimly fascinating to see how warm we could get next week. Very unseasonal.

EC46 Week of 18th Dec Christmas week Slight relaxation week of 1st Jan but then... 8th Jan

Amplifying again...

Was about to post the 850 spaghetti. Yes 20th, 21st looks to be the day when it might all switch. Hopefully, by early next week, a) the signal strengthens, b) that mean line dips below -5 and c) we start seeing more and more members go below -10 by the 22nd

Hmmm, those 264+ clusters look a bit disappointing Most populous clusters have a +NAO although cluster 2 might be setting up something wintry in time for Xmas Day

Well, if it's cold you want the EC46 looks promising Week of 18th Dec Christmas week 8th Jan Through Greenland heights rather than Scandi though.

NWS posted the surface temps - basically below average for England south of Manchester and east of Bristol. Tropical Teignmouth will be mild as will the rest of the west of the UK and Scotland. Possibly the south coast too It's all moot as it'll change by the morning. Sums up the boring mid-term outlook that we're debating such detail though

Latest met office update is both an upgrade and downgrade (for cold) towards the end of December! Mentions the chance of snow and ice later in December but then goes on to play down those chances.

Every time I'm on a tedious work call on Teams I ask myself this very question

Oh sure, of course. I'm not suggesting they're full-proof. My post was just a tip to people not to get hung up on or disappointed at the next 2 weeks

I get your frustration but it's a matter of looking at the bigger/longer-term picture. Accept the next 10-14 days of westerlies and keep an eye on what the output, teleconnections and the likes of MattyH, Catacol, bluearmy, Tamara, etc say about the 2nd half of the month. I'd suggest there is no point agonising over this next period Besides we need some jet energy going into Europe

But the EC46 (which I don't necessarily rate) seems to have flipped to potential cold from the 18 Dec Pressure is too high over Iberia but it's something to work with Could be worse Interesting

In FI the building pressure over south Europe predictably drags the north Atlantic High down to it. It'll be nice and frosty but a few days later it'll all collapse to a Euro High. Miles out so nothing to worry about but that's the latest GFS run

Heights randomly hold on just south of Greenland but it all looks flimsy. I realise it's all moot at that range and it is encouraging to see high pressure wanting to build to our NW at all but I ain't convinced

Mild for the UK and the heights in Greenland about to collapse. Met4cast's excellent MJO commentary the one (significant?) straw