LRD

At Day 10. If that comes into view 96 hours out then fair enough

No comments on the 18z GFS sums it up. Ensembles are looking less and less cold (850s-wise) with each run too. Iberian heights too prevalent for my liking But the Met Office longer term updates continue to hold out some hope

Well those cold members of the ensemble suites from the 12z runs last night didn't last long! ECM and GFS 850s spaghetti I'm doubting that anyone will be picking cherries out of that lot! But, again, it's striking that every 0z run for days has been poor (for cold that is. Those who want it mild will be loving it) and the 12z runs have been promising

Low in the Atlantic looking like it wants to move SE too

Yeah, good point, can't argue with that when compared to the 0z. Still think it will introduce warmer weather for us but it is important that lows track south of Scandi (if they get past the meridian) to retain the cold up there

Well, yeah, but I don't think they would say what they said on the strength of that. Might come to nothing but we'll see

Look at this polar profile And the Atlantic still swans in with little resistance

I'm reckon that'll barrel through. Midweek will see the cold ease

They're a minority but some members of the GFS ensemble suite see the 850s plunging towards mid-December. Not the full set...

The start of the next chase? 2 weeks away but we've gotta start somewhere

Yes, that was an interesting little sign off from the Met!

Trouble is we're 2-0 down so need 3 last minute strikes!

The op and control follow each other. I'm sure I read it on here that you can put added confidence in an op solution if the control is following it (I know ECM now combines op and control but GFS doesn't as far as I'm aware)

For London, yes. 1 cold straggler on its own from the 6th/7th

Look at all the other cobblers the Mail publishes too. And people are caught hook, line and sinker with it MOGREPS with a much more solid looking signal for mild to win out this time next week. Similar looking signal in other places too... even in Aberdeen. Might not last long as some of the teleconnection-savvy folk on here are saying but it's there

Sounds like how my bladder feels after a few beers Interesting debate on the cold air thing. I was never convinced that it was difficult to remove until the other day when the Met Office mentioned it. And, let's face it, they know more than me. I get that there is cold air and then there is cold air and it all depends on precise conditions Ensembles are still indicating the last 2 GFS ops are overdoing warm(er) 850s into Scandi But for Blighty good old wind and rain looks to return. Standard stuff

What am I not seeing here? Because my take from that is that the vortex looks to be settling over Greenland and looks pretty strong if a little disorganised

Yeah I always thought the 'cold-difficult-to-break-down' theory was a bit of a myth (putting it politely). But the Met Office mentioned it in one of their presentations recently so there's obviously something in it. Dense air being more difficult to replace sort of thing Although I'm still interested in winter weather, I am nowhere near as invested in it as I was when my kids were younger. Never been one to analyse every run though. I'm philosophical about it all these days. Our winters are so poor now my expectations are always very low

It's clutch-straw time but for Stockholm the ECM was a very warm run compared to the ensemble suite And there are still some brutally cold runs in there. However, let's not lipstick the pig - it's a poor morning. For closer to home the story is simpler. Mild

So, yet again the morning runs put everyone in a grump. Strange that it keeps happening. Odds favour milder weather now but if the 12z runs switch again who knows. What we don't want is the cold blown away from Scandi but even that happens on the ops this morning

New Year's Eve 1978 KLAXON

The GFS is already 'sniffing it out' Not far off the ECM at all

Day 10 and similarities between the GFS op and the ECM op are obvious GFS ECM Could be both agreeing on an incorrect idea of course but it's probably worth noting

The BBC don't use the Met Office anymore and their forecasters probably won't have seen tonight's ECM run and, even if they did, they wouldn't change a forecast on the basis of one run

First time in ages (from what I can recall) I've seen a proper cold high modelled over Scandi to drive cold westwards. It's usually Azores Highs going up there or a Euro high travelling north (not that either of those things happen often either). Never the same as a proper cold-sourced high. That's where the truly cold Scandi high spells come from Likely gone in 12 hours but nice to see