LRD

It's back up. Last 2 weeks And aside from an unclear week of 22 Jan, it looks pretty good in the shorter term too

Yes. I just managed to catch the latest run before it crashed

Indeed. It's a weak signal as you'd expect this far out but something to keep an eye on

EC46 headline - consistent. Positive height anomalies still showing to our north-west throughout most of the run and even appearing over Scandi into Feb. I know pressure anomaly charts can be misleading but it still looks pretty good

As I and others have said quite a few times - and it's worth labouring the point again - a convective E'ly this weekend/next week was always the underdog option. The advice was to temper expectations on that. Briefly some models showed interest for the SE for that time period but there was never any real consistency behind it. And there was virtually no chance of snow shown for northern and central areas at any point (for next week). Frosty, dry conditions has been a very clear (pardon the pun) favourite for nearly a week

He'll need it this month and early next

For the 1st time since 2013 a significant, impactful cold spell could strike right in the heart of winter ECM 240 NH view

GEM 240. Ruddy hell

GEM is great GFS looks a bit 'meh'. Scottish high looks like it will be dragged south by the Azores High. Very frosty, especially in the north, though

Nah. Relax. Cold is nailed down now. As I say, it's now just a matter of determining what type of cold weather we will end up with from Friday until late next week. I still say dry with increasingly hard frosts but some snow might sneak into the SE later this weekend/early next week

Generally, though, the SE does seem to have a different climate compared to the rest of the UK. A line from, say, The Wash down to Hampshire, SE-wards is, generally, far drier than the rest of the UK. We've had some reasonable summers down here when the rest of the country have had mediocre summer conditions

In Rome when it rains it rains like it means it. Hence they get more rain overall, annually. We just get crap drizzle all the time. They get more thunderstorms. I'd much rather Rome's climate than London's

Yes it is. Dunno why you have to be rude about it Compare the Climate and Weather in Rome and London - Weather Spark WEATHERSPARK.COM Compare the Climate and Weather in Rome and London - Weather Spark.url

I think it was if the control and op diverge, do not trust the ensemble suite for that particular run. If the op and control agree, more trust can be put into it I think that was the gist anyway. As you say, it was a good post Anyway, cold is nailed now. What type of cold we shall have to see. I still think people need to temper their expectations for the next 9 or 10 days (yes, I know, day 10 again) as, apart from Kent, Essex and maybe Sussex there probably won't be a lot of snow. Hard frosts will be the main feature. From next weekend (13th/14th), as I've said loads of times now, it looks as though it COULD become more dramatically wintry. Met Office updates will lead the way I reckon MOGREPS 0z for London Steady as she goes. Individual members obviously have different ideas on where the initial HP cell will settle. Sunday and Monday might see some wintry precip in the SE but the form horse is cold and dry before something might change (out of range for the MOGREPS graph) later next week

Rome is wetter than London Aye, can't wait to take the dog out in all this mild rain. Deep joy

Gut feeling - an underwhelming op from GFS tonight but it will flip cold tomorrow

EC46 pressure anomaly charts (which are always to be treated with caution) suggest there is potential for cold patterns to be dominant until mid Feb with only the week of 22 Jan looking unconvincing

Definitely further south than last night but still plenty of encouragement there if it's cold you're after But we can certainly see where the ever so slightly disappointing UKMO 12z run has come from

It's yesterday's. They won't look like that tonight

That's yesterday's 12z suite isn't it?

MOGREPS 12z ensembles for London Suggests a pretty cold weekend but maybe with a high starting to sink over us into the middle of next week... hence the rise in 850s. We'd probably see hard frosts and maybe fog though, even with the higher 850s And it doesn't mean to say there won't be retrogression of that high towards Iceland and Greenland towards the weekend of 13th/14th

I totally agree that any GFS run shouldn't be discounted but if the boot was on the other foot and the Op was one of the coldest members of the ensemble suite you'd probably be dismissing it on that basis You can't have it both ways And before you accuse me of hope-casting or whatever, I don't have any skin in the game. If it happens, it happens. If it doesn't, it doesn't. No skin off my nose either way. But for what it's worth I reckon it'll be cold and frosty next week and then there is potential for more dramatic cold weather by the weekend of the 13th/14th

GFS is going to be very disappointing. High is sinking. Energy going over the top of the UK High. Doesn't mean it's right though

UKMO - very good for cold GEM - good IMBY GFS - cold but uneventful

They're quite cold ain't they? Or am I reading it wrong?