LRD

I totally understand why some of us chase cold and snow in winter. There's nothing wrong with that in my eyes The main problem in the MOD thread is the levels of delusion that regularly surface. I'm all for being positive but there's a line, if crossed, when that positivity just becomes silly. Some posters just lose credibility. I can't understand it. Kidding yourself (fine if you want to do that) and others (unfair) Anyway looks like reality has now set in We really do have a wretched climate though as others have said. Warmer, more reliable summers are on the increase as are warm springs (over the last 20 years or so) but it's still feels like eternal Sept/Oct. Utterly, utterly boring. As this hobby is increasingly becoming

Totally agree. And even April 2021 was sunny despite it being cold. May was grim though But yeah springs have become quite warm since the turn of the century. 2020 was a cracker. What a shame we were locked down at the time

No surprise to see this shocker (for cold) from UKMO when the MOGREPS ensembles flipped to an uncertain outlook on the 06z from quite a convincing cold signal by Xmas Eve on the 0z run

The fella who posts as weather-history on here blew this myth out of the water a little while back

Thanks. So the op run doesn't feature on that spaghetti graph at all?

Speaking of ensembles, here is the 0z suite from MOGREPS. Quick question for those that may know the answer - is the thick blue line the UKMO op run?

This is going to go back and forth for 48-72 hours. Maybe more. Until Tuesday or Wednesday, it's probably not worth agonising over every single op run from every single model for Xmas Eve and Xmas Day. A trend might emerge I guess but this might go down to the (relative) wire My friendly advice - never too high, never too low (at least for the next 3 days)

Virtually 50-50 for cold in London next weekend according to MOGREPS Not much middle ground there. We all know how this usually ends but it might be different this time. As someone else said earlier, this is going to be a tense week in this thread Chances much better, as you'd expect, the further north west we go Carlisle

FWIW (and I know some don't think it's worth anything) EC46 is STILL showing promise from week 2 of Jan onwards. Might be nonsense, it might not be. But it's there

Yep. The Met Office are obviously also seeing something too so folk shouldn't get too down. Yet But this cold-chasing winter hobby is getting increasingly fruitless and boring.

Incredible turn around on the ensembles. Every month in 2023 will be above average. Remarkable really. If worrying

Well, the stronger that warming becomes it's understandable that folk will start to question the models' response to new variables including the obviously warming climate. So it is related to an extent

I was joking for gawds sake Blimey you lot are so serious

Cool See you all in November 2024. Maybe

Looks like any cold weather is being squeezed in terms of longevity and diluted in terms of severity unless you believe the GFS ECM is awful if it's cold you want but let's see what the ensembles and clusters say. As Vikos said, it's more autumnal than wintry albeit the chilly and, potentially, turbulent side of autumn. GFS at least offers 3 interesting days, especially for the North and NW. But, at this point in time, it just looks like a classic 90s toppler to me

MOGREPS - London Carlisle Lots of scatter next week

Exactly. And they're not now. Some put words into their mouths though

It is an upgrade but they are still not favouring it. Some see the word 'cold' in their forecasts and seem to automatically think that's the form horse. It isn't. Yet. It will firm up nearer the time if signs are still there as we move into 2024, of course

Maybe you should take a break from this hobby mate - if it's causing you to be down about it

They never favoured cold. They said (and are still saying) there's a chance but wet weather will probably win out. They have not actually forecast cold. just talking about probabilities. Even in January they say it's only a low likelihood... at this point in time anyway

No idea. But it's a model. By the respected ECM. And this is the MOD thread so thought I'd mention it

I know some of you boys and girls don't like the EC46 but it continues to show potential for a cold January. Unfortunately Xmas week looks flat

GFS Ensemble spaghetti out to the 21st. The op has gone off on one (a warm one that is) Let's see what the full ensembles look like in about 20 minutes

Yes I was thinking that UKMO 168 is probably the chart of the evening so far in many ways (despite the GFS eye candy from the 22nd to the 24th)

In FI so detail will change but that annoying low pressure system off of the eastern seaboard will break what could have been an epic link between the NE Canada high and the Atlantic High. Will flatten out by Xmas Day as it is though But, as I say, the details will change so hopefully that link will prove to be stronger nearer the time (if, indeed, the link happens)