Northwest NI

Like the ECM I’m gonna stick my flag in the sand for a decent cold spell, around10 days to 2 weeks. Like @damianslaw post above, there is some ludicrous manoeuvres in the GFS latest offering that just don’t look right. Winter is coming

More what type of precipitation.

I was alive for all these except 1962. I’d be curious about December 1995 and also December 2000 especially for my part of the world and yours.

Cold and dry for a while is a good way of priming the atmosphere for something more traditional later hopefully.

Does this qualify as the first “winter is over” post of the season? Not great model watching at the minute to be fair to you but does seem a tad hysterical?

Working on that myself Big Lad

It would be typical with the energy prices to get the type of winter most on here are normally looking for.

New satellite imagery clearly shows magma movement beneath the surface between Fagradalsfjall and Keilir on the Reykjanes peninsula, to the northeast of the site of last year’s volcanic eruption. The satellite data were analysed by scientists today, with the images showing that the magma intrusion has caused significant deformation (up to 16 centimetres) of the crust in recent days to the west of Kleifarvatn lake, but it is not considered likely that magma will break through the surface there. It is far more likely that an eruption will occur at the site of smaller recent earthquakes—as was the case in early 2021. The likelihood that a volcanic eruption will begin on the Reykjanes peninsula in the coming days or weeks has now increased yet again and is considered highly likely by earth scientists. According to the Icelandic Met Office, distortion modelling indicates that the magma intrusion under Fagradalsfjall runs very shallow, at just a kilometre below the surface. The magma accumulation is believed to be taking place roughly twice as quickly as before the eruption last year. Geophysicist Freysteinn Sigmundsson says the more vigorous magma accumulation this year, currently equivalent to ten Elliðaá rivers, could mean an eruption somewhat bigger than in 2021. Lava would likely flow north and could potentially reach the main Reykjanesbraut road, he says, adding, though, that it is still impossible to say with certainty that an eruption will occur. In different earth sciences news, Grímsvötn has also been shaking today. Its largest quake was on Magnitude 3.7, and there have been around a dozen others along with it. Grímsvötn is Iceland’s most active volcano, but seismic activity in the ice-covered southeast Iceland volcano is entirely unconnected to the volcanic system on the Reykjanes peninsula. In light of the ongoing seismic news, as well as this year’s cold and unsettled summer weather, the ICE-SAR national search & rescue organisation has issued an appeal for travellers to register their travel plans on SafeTravel.is before setting off into the wilds, as life-threatening conditions can strike with little warning. There are too many foreign tourists landing in difficulties this year due to poor preparation and insufficient equipment, the organisation’s head told RÚV. The Safe Travel website has lots of helpful information to help keeps travellers safe.

An earthquake of M4.7 shook the Reykjanes peninsula (and was clearly felt in the capital area) at 5.48 pm at only 1.1 km depth! Edit* after verification the earthquake turned out to be M5.4 at 1.9 km depth! That’s pretty shallow and pretty strong! Data: https://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/reykjanespeninsula/#view=table

I know what you mean but I see that as a bad thing. Don’t want to see that kind of heat up into Iceland or Greenland.

You should not stop posting. There’s loads of learning to be done by everyone on this page. People see things in different ways without either being necessarily wrong.

Jet stream charts are also a prediction no?

I liked last years NW / SE split better

Cheers for that!

Proper good soaking here on Wednesday night. Came out of the cinema in shorts and t shirt to walk home in quite heavy rain.

Grey and what feels like almost a neutral temperature here today. Neither hot nor cold but nice

Nice to have been within a few miles of the new UK high temperature record as it happened. In Walton on Thames here for a while

Bit of fireworks in far South right now…..

Much nicer that to be honest.

I can confirm that that is the case as I’m here for a while, though Sunday and Monday were amazing in the Northwest

So, 5 days out and the perfect scenario for exceptional weather - it’s at this point in Winter that someone spots an innocuous little shortwave that comes in and bombs everything out. Not going to happen here though.

Just reading that thanks. All those Northern Ireland records were broken last summer, so perhaps Cornwall record out of date too.

I’m due in London at 1030am on Monday for a week. Feel kind of sick, looking at these…..

Will your location be a “Garden” city for much longer.

Agree. There’s hasn’t been loads of rain but hardly any sun.