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TonyH

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  1. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Some rain at times with dry spells too; fairly cool. Wet by next weekend.[/b]

    A cool, wet week gone, especially for west Wales, with well over 2 inches falling at Llanwnnen. There has even been a little sleet and wet snow in the showers, along with hail, thunder and lightning for some! A cool week too, on Thursday temperatures for many did not better 8c. This week will be somewhat drier, still some rain on some of the days but not all, and with some fairly decent dry interludes, these most likely for the Midlands. On the cool side again, although less so than last week. Ground frost may still feature on a few nights this week, probably too much breeze for any fog though. Turning wet for all by next weekend.

    Heavy snow for parts of the West Country this morning with a couple of inches in parts of Somerset - it is possible that over the south-east Midland's where it is raining heavily could see this turn to sleet even wet snow before it clears this afternoon (already reports of snow falling in Northamptonshire). Heavy showers with hail in places for west Wales this afternoon, and a cool day everywhere, maxima ranging from just 6c over the wet east Midlands to 10c in Pembrokeshire. Further showery rain tonight with a little low over the south, probably too much in the way of cloud for frost tonight.

    A cool northerly flow for Monday, sunny spells and a few showers, but many places staying dry. Maxima just 8 to 10c, so dry for any traditional Guy Fawkes night bonfires. Enough in the way of clear skies for a frost Monday night, although this may have cleared by Tuesday morning in west Wales, so you may not need the scraper here! A slight ridge of high pressure builds in for Tuesday so another mostly dry day, although quite a lot of cloud coming in with WNW breeze, and some rain may affect the Midlands for a time during the afternoon. Cool again Tuesday with 8 to 10c the highs, and feeling chilly in the breeze. Milder air so no frost on Tuesday night, perhaps some drizzle for west Wales.
    [attachment=143593:PPVG89 cool few showers Mon.png][attachment=143594:PPVJ89 m dry Tue.png][attachment=143595:ecm500.072 m dry Tue after frost.png]

    Low pressure closes in on Scotland on Wednesday with a cold front moving east over Wales and England, so rain at times for west Wales much of the day, this not reaching the Midlands until the evening, and then probably only light rain at worst. A little milder on Wednesday temperatures reaching the early November average of 11 or 12c. The cold front only moving slowly east on Wednesday night so still rain at times for the Midlands, but clearing over west Wales to a few showers, with just the chance of a ground frost here. Thursday a bright day, with sunny spells and a few showers, quite cool again maxima 9 or 10c. A small chance of the cold front waving back into the Midlands during Thursday to bring further spells of rain, but odds on a fairly dry day for most places. Clearing skies under a transient ridge gives widespread frost Thursday night, down to -2c in colder spots.
    [attachment=143596:PPVL89 CF brings some rain milder Wed.png][attachment=143597:Rtavn844 CF Wed.png][attachment=143598:ecmt850.096 cool some showers Thu.png]

    It could be a bright and frosty start on Friday, but then low pressure moving south of Iceland brings rain fronts east during Friday, although it could stay dry until late on across the Midlands. Feeling cool in an increasing south-west wind during Friday, temperatures no better than the early November average of 11c. Low pressure up against a blocking Russian high next weekend, with fronts becoming slow moving over the UK perhaps, and this could bring quite a lot of rain in places, and still on the cool side.
    [attachment=143599:ecmt850.144 rain wind from W Fri.png][attachment=143600:ecmt850.168 unsettled weekend.png][attachment=143601:Rtavn1624 SM trough weekend v wet places.png]
  2. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Often dry and quite warm; unsettled and cooler with rain at times for the Bank Holiday weekend[/b]
    August has so far proven a rather warm but unsettled month, a vast improvement on the first half of Summer! During the past week Llanwnnen has received almost 2 inches of rain and it's pouring this morning, so a wet week. This weekend has been warm but nothing compared with South-east England which reached 32c on Saturday - the hottest of the Summer so far. Sunday will be equally hot for the south-east, and very warm for the Midlands with some more sunshine before possible storms arrive. A fairly dry week ahead and often quite warm, but with the prospect of spells of rain and blustery showers over the August Bank holiday weekend.

    A waving trough is giving the heavy rain over Wales today, while the Midlands is very warm with some sunny spells. Chance of some thunderstorms for the Midlands later this afternoon or this evening. The rain will have cleared west Wales by this evening, with a dry night to follow.

    With low pressure anchored well to the north-west of Ireland early in the coming week and with pressure fairly high over southern Britain, Monday and Tuesday will be generally dry and bright, with just a few showers developing, more especially over west Wales, but quite a few places escaping these altogether. There is the chance of a longer spell of light rain moving east on Tuesday afternoon, but some doubt over this. Pleasant sunny spells and on the warm side for the end of Summer, maxima between 20 and 23c for both Monday and Tuesday.
    [attachment=138715:brack0a mostly dry R Mon.gif][attachment=138716:brack1a possible lsr Tue pm.gif]

    Wednesday a touch cooler and breezy, but still mostly dry but more in the way of cloud, and just the odd light shower in places. A little bump of high pressure gives a dry and quite warm day Thursday with decent sunny spells, temperatures into the low 70's f for many. The mostly dry weather hanging on into Friday for the Midlands, but the next low is slowly approaching Ireland bringing rain into west Wales during the day, although perhaps not until late on. Friday may well be a warm and quite humid day temperatures reaching 22 to 24c, where the rain holds off that is!
    [attachment=138717:Recm722 touch cooler breezy few showers Wed.gif][attachment=138718:Rtavn842 cooler breezy Wed.png][attachment=138719:brack4 dry bright warm Thu.gif][attachment=138720:Rtavn1082 just about dry Thu.png][attachment=138721:Recm1202 low rain to west Fri.gif][attachment=138722:Rtavn1264 rain from west Fri.png][attachment=138723:Rtavn1322 turning unsettled Fri.png]

    This low pressure is over the UK next weekend with showers or longer spells of rain affecting all parts, some of these heavy. The Bank Holiday weekend looks rather cool and windy, with temperatures unlikely to better 21c. Yet another low may well spoil Bank Holiday Monday with further rain and perhaps strong winds. All in all quite an Autumnal look to the end of August.
    [attachment=138724:Rtavn1681 rather cool unsettled weekend.png][attachment=138725:Recm1682 rain and showers weekend.gif]
  3. TonyH
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][b]Headline: Continuing very unsettled, further spells of rain and localised flooding. Average to mild temperatures[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]A very wet wet week gone- totals of 50mm for Coventry and 79mm at Llanwnnen, 41mm of this falling in the 24 hours to midnight last night alone at the latter. Coventry and Warwickshire in 2012 has had double the rainfall that fell in 2011, 800mm or so against 400mm or so. Llanwwnen has had a thoroughly wet 1425mm to date in 2012, but should not beat the wettest year recently (1553mm in 2008). These figures will rise a fair bit more in the final week of 2012. With nowhere to go for even modest amounts of rain, this week is bound to see flooding in the news again to varying degrees. It has turned very mild over this weekend and during last night temperaures have been up to 12 or 13c! [/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]A respite from the incessant rains during Sunday but this is not going to last with the next system already making an appearance on the radar to the SW of Cornwall. A dry, mild but breezy Sunday with some sunny intervals. The next batch of rain comes from a developing wave on a long trailing front running from the English Channel to the Azores. Just how far north this gets tonight dictates how wet it will be, and also how far north the wet weather extends. West Wales looks like escaping with generally light rain tonight while the Midlands could get more signifacant falls, a further half inch or so expected to fall here, leading to additional flooding. Were the frontal wave to be 50 miles more north than predicted then this would bring SW and mid Wales into the risk of heavier rain tonight as well.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=149850:PPVE89 wave rain Sun night.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]With the main low centred west of Ireland, another unsettled day on Monday with rain or showers at times, especially for west Wales where these may contain hail. Temperatures on Christmas Eve a little above average at 8 or 9c. What of the Big Day itself! Not as much as a frost to whiten the grass while opening our presents- so not very seasonal in the tradional expectations sense. Yet another trough of low pressure moves across Wales then England bringing further showery rain at times, but at least it will not be raining non stop like on Saturday, and with sunny intervals possible between the showers to get out for a walk! Best check the rainfall radar:[/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][url="http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/index.html"]http://www.metoffice...adar/index.html[/url][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][url="http://www.netweather.tv/secure/cgi-bin/premium.pl?action=radarv6;sess=4d42d0b0b318a682ba96ce7cede0677f"]http://www.netweathe...a96ce7cede0677f[/url][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Temperatures close to average reaching around 8c on Christmas Day. So although some rain about, this hopefully not enough to create travel difficulties on the Day itself. Enough clear intervals develping on Christmas night for a ground frost.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=149851:PPVJ89unsettled Big Day.png][attachment=149853:ecmt850.048 showery rain Xmas Day.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Boxing Day, and we have a very fleeting ridge that should give at least a dry, bright and possibly frosty morning. However the next in the never ending Atlantic train of lows is steaming towards Ireland.This is set to bring further spells of rain, heavy at times into west Wales in the afternoon, and the Midlands by evening, it will also be windy later. Some heavy showers with hail for west Wales on Boxing Day evening once the main rain passes through along with with blustery winds. Enough clear spells overnight for a ground frost in places.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=149852:PPVM89 next L Boxing Day.png][attachment=149857:viewimage more rain Boxing Day pm.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]During Thursday another of those transient little ridges crosses us, so another reprieve from the rains, but any dry weather only likely to be short-lived once more. So the possibilty of a drier interlude to get out and walk the waterlogged fields on Thursday before the next bout of wet weather! A touch colder too on Thursday maxima of 6 or 7c. The next Atlantic system is winding itself up later on Thorsday bringing more fronts in by evening or night. These get us into a warm sector with a long fetch of sub- Tropical mild SW winds which lasts through Friday. So Thursday night is one of those when it actually gets warmer rather than colder, temperatures UP to 10c by dawn on Friday. but with all this mild, moist air comes the threat of more really wet weather for Friday into Saturday. However, we may also be seing the influence of higher pressure over France on Friday, which would mean that the wet weather is restricted to west Wales, while the Midlands ecapes with just drizzle at times. A mild and windy day on Friday with temperatures reaching 12c. [/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=149854:PPVO89 drier R Thu.png][attachment=149858:viewimage transient R Thu.png] [attachment=149855:ecmt850.144 warm sector mild rain wind Fri.png][/size][/font][attachment=149860:viewimage end week drier Midlands rain WW.png]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]By Saturday rain will cross all parts followed by colder conditions on Sunday but as they say...this is a long way off! One near certainty is that few of us will have seen barely a snow flake throughout the whole of December. Wonder if this is set to change in the New Year?[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=149856:ecmt850.168 unsettled weekend.png][/size][/font]
  4. TonyH
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][b]Headline: Very cold with persistent hard frost, snow for many places[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]The anticipated change to colder weather has happened and looks set to last throughout the coming week. Another relatively dry week gone, especially for the Midlands, just 2mm falling at Coventry, and merely 11mm here, near Lampeter, a chance for the rivers to drop to more normal levels and the fields to dry out somewhat. The very mild start to January has brought out the rose and honeysuckle leaves in our garden, as well as unseasonably early snowdrops in some places, and I have heard snatches of Song Thrush, however, we should not be fooled into thinking an early Spring is on the cards![/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Quite a hard frost this morning, a low of -4.7c here in Ceredigion, and -3c in Warwickshire. Mostly dry, cold and bright this afternoon for the Midlands, just the outside chance a few places could see a snow flurry. Already west Wales has clouded over as weather fronts from a low pressure system north of Scotland approach. This system is set to bring a mix of rain, sleet and snow across England and Wales during the next 36 to 48 hours as it gradually tracks southeast. There is a less cold sector within the system which helps to complicate what actually falls from the sky! It was looking like the Midlands would get a fair amount of snow during Monday, however recent model runs have relented somewhat so that more of a mix of snow, sleet and rain can be expected, with the more snowy picture further east in the Midlands perhaps. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Already a wintry mix into north-west Wales, and this generally light rain, sleet and snow spreads across the rest of west Wales this afternoon. Light rain for coasts, but snow inland, at least for a time. Hills above about 200m in for an inch or so this evening, but probabaly little or no accumulation below this level, so Lampeter, for example expected to remain untroubled by snow this evening. This snow moves into the Midlands too this evening giving a couple of inches in places, although after midnight, as less cold air moves across, this may turn to sleet or rain over the West Midlands. The East Midlands set to wake up to a good few inches on Monday morning, and it could have stayed as snow all night east of Coventry with temperatures still close to zero by dawn? A real knife-edge situation for the Midlands during Monday, and potentially further snowfall in places here, while for others, especially west of Coventry, sleet and rain showers more likely through the day. Enough snow about for the Midlands to cause some traffic disruption through the day. Very cold for the MIdlands on Monday, maxima only 2c at best. For west Wales, showery and rather cold sums it up for Monday, these showery outbreaks probably falling as rain and sleet away from high ground above about 300m, although as it turns colder through the evening they tend to turn to snow more widely inland, so even Lampeter and Carmarthen may have a slushy covering by midnight. Hills of mid and north Wales getting a good few inches snow covering through Monday night as wintry showers continue. [/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=153376:prectypeuktopo snow tonight Midlands.png][attachment=153374:Mon wintry mix.png][attachment=153375:h850t850eu wintry Monday snowy E Midlands.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Probably not enough snow to cause problems in south and west Wales below 100m on Tuesday morning, so for Aberystwyth, Carmarthen, and Llanelli traffic should not be affected compared with higher up and futher inland. Most of the sleet and snow will have cleared the Midlands by midnight on Monday, although a few snow showers still making it through overnight, and a frosty night too, away from coastal west Wales. The low pressure has moved away by Tuesday morning, so a largely dry, bright day for most, just the chance of a snow shower in places; cold maxima only around zero for the snow covered east Midlands and 3c for west Wales. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]High pressure asserts over Scandinavia from Wednesday, this often a sign of an impending very cold spell, especially when the UK is already in cold air as it will be, and with the snow cover for some areas enhancing the severe frosts. Wednesday and Thursday both set to be very cold indeed with severe night frosts, and temperatures struggling to reach zero by day, especially for inland Wales and the Midlands. Fairly sunny and dry days, just an isolated snow shower affecting the East Midlands perhaps. Temperatures down as low as -9c by night and close to zero by day. Freezing fog could also be an issue in places, and were this to persist then highs well below freezing, just -3c or so where this happens along some of the river valleys.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=153377:PPVK89 H asserts Scand Wed.png][attachment=153380:h850t850eu R from Scand Wed.png][attachment=153378:ecmt850.096 cold block Wed Thu.png][attachment=153379:PPVO89 v cold H Thu dry frosty poss fog.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]This cold blocking high should keep the Atlantic at bay through into Friday, although signs are that by then weather fronts attempt to push towards the west. This could well make things interesting regards further snow potential at the end of this week and into next weekend! For Friday and the weekend then, it looks likely to stay cold but with fronts edging in from the west attempting to make it milder. As usual this begs the questions of 'battleground snowfall' possibilities and 'will the cold relent'? The Atlantic looks like having quite a difficult time against the Scandinavian high over the weekend, although the latest model outputs suggest less cold air with rain wins out after the snow by Sunday - so will we all be snow covered this time next week or will it just be cold and damp? We will see as usual![/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=153381:met.120 cold block holds to Fri.png][attachment=153383:ecmt850.168 battleground snow weekend.png][attachment=153384:h850t850eu less cold wins out weekend.png][/size][/font]
  5. TonyH
    [font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Mild and mostly dry with sunny spells; frost and fog patches overnight; turning unsettled next weekend[/b][/font]

    [font=Helvetica]Mostly dry with some sunny spells since last Tuesday with temperatures around or a little above the April average (13c) although quite warm at times for the Midlands where Coventry topped 16c (60f) on Wednesday for example. There were a few ground frosts as is typical in April still, down close to zero on both Wednesday and Friday night at this particular cold hollow. With the Bluebells coming out and the Swallows arriving back from Africa plenty more dry and mild weather to come this week too although with some frost and fog by night. Easter weekend.. and things gradually turn more unsettled.

    A ridge of high pressure gives a pleasant rather mild Sunday with sunny spells, although I note some sea fog this morning for Cardigan Bay on [url="http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/satpics/latest_uk_vis.html"]http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/satpics/latest_uk_vis.html[/url] which may persist. Highs 13 to 15c generally but only 11c where sea fog or low cloud persists, quite a NW breeze on Sunday afternoon though. Clear spells tonight with ground frost in places lows 2 to 5c inland. High pressure centred over Ireland on Monday so another rather nice day with sunny spells and maxima 12 to 14c close to average. With clear skies and calm conditions on Monday night a widespread frost develops by midnight and also fog patches, down just below zero in places but milder and frost- free near coasts. The high migrates over the North Sea on Tuesday, more of a SE breeze eventually and warmer highs 14 to 16c, West Wales most favoured. Clear and cold again though for Tuesday night, another widespread frost, a few spots down to -2c perhaps and foggy in places too by dawn. Still a high pressure ridges over from the east on Wednesday so another good day, sunny periods after any fog clears and quite warm highs of 14 to 16c, a few coasts affected by sea mist and cooler however. Frost more restricted on Wednesday night, but still a ground frost locally down to 1c and again mist and fog patches develop.

    Things get more complicated later in the week with various air masses attempting influence over the UK and with implications for the Easter too. Still not a great deal of rain about on the whole, so not too bad an Easter Weekend. On Thursday largely dry again but a weak cold front moving down from the NW seems likely to be bringing more in the way of cloud and a little rain or drizzle in places. It could be that the Midlands remains fine, bright and rather warm on Thursday though. HIghs anywhere between 11 and 15c for West Wales, and 13 to 17c for the Midlands depending on cloud cover. Ground frost risks once more for Thursday night as skies clear. Still a ridge of sorts across Wales and England for Good Friday which looks like a fine, rather warm dry day highs of 18c in places, so well above the April average.

    By the weekend high pressure may have pulled away to Scandinavia with pressure tending to fall gradually across the UK. All highly speculative trying to predict a week in advance but Saturday may well be another generally dry, fine day but with some showers perhaps breaking out in places later on, and another reasonably mild day. More definate low pressure over us by Easter Sunday and Monday although hopefully not a washout! Some areas of rain or showers about then but with sunny intervals between, there may be some thunder in places too. Monday is showing the strongest potential for wet weather but this may alter. Cool where cloudy and wet, mild if the sun appears![/font]
  6. TonyH
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
    [b]Headline: Disruptive heavy snowfalls, very cold.[/b][/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
    Due to popular request and in view of the upcoming interesting and most probably severe weather here is a mid week update:[/size][/font][font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]

    Warwickshire had around an inch of snow on Monday, but so far this Winter the snow has missed West Wales, bar a few flurries. A weak front over the Irish Sea is giving some very light snow to West Wales this evening, although I suspect that near the coast it is drizzle. Freezing fog meant a very cold day for the Midlands today, HIGHS of -3c in Warwickshire. Pembrokeshire on the other hand managed +5c this afternoon, quite a contrast.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
    Further light snow flurries overnight and even tomorrow morning for West Wales giving a slight but unproblematic covering, with weak fronts close by. Another severe frost for Wednesday night over most of the Midlands, temperatures down to -7c in places again, misty with fog in places again too. A chance the snow flurries could extend into the West Midlands later in the night. Freezing fog lasting through Thursday morning in parts of the East Midlands, but an increasing breeze should lift this by early afternoon, with some sunny intervals possible. Another largely cloudy day for West Wales, a little light rain, sleet or snow at times, most of the snow flurries on high ground, as the weak front nudges slightly less cold air into west Wales during the day. Maxima on Thursday below zero again for the Midlands, and up to 5c for Pembrokeshire.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
    The fun and games begins on Thursday night with a deep Atlantic low pressure thrusting it's fronts into the cold blocking Scandinavian high. The high is intensifying and unwilling to give ground over the coming days, so with these fronts hitting the cold air the result is widespread snowfalls throughout Friday lasting well into Saturday! Heavy and disruptive falls are expected, something to beware of if planning to travel on these days. Not all of us will see snow, at least not to start with, as the front will make some progress into Wales, and where it gets across to means the difference between where it rains and snows. The likely outcome for Friday appears that the snow proper starts over Wales during the early hours, although over lowland Pembrokeshire it most likely will be rain or sleet. The snow, some heavy, then spreads aross the Midlands during the morning, driven by a strong SE to east wind causing it to pile up and drift.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
    For Wales then, snow, heavy at times EAST of a line roughly Swansea - Lampeter - Aberystwyth - Lleyn Peninsular, these areas look set to have a lot of drifting snow throughout Friday, many places seeing at least 6 inches on the ground by night-time, and a foot is possible in hillier areas too. A very disruptive snowfall that has consistently been modelled for these same areas over recent days. West of this line, the models suggest slightly less cold air makes it, resulting in generally rain and sleet for much of Pembrokeshire, south and west Carmarthenshire, SW Ceredigion perhaps, and the Gower. However, this 'snow-line' may well shift a little come Friday, so even Carmarthen and Pembroke may see a snowy day, and vice versa, Swansea, Lampeter and Aberystwyth could see less snow than currently modelled. Even given the various permutations, the cold wins out later on Friday, so that disruptive snowfalls then spread west to cover even SW Wales into Friday night.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
    And what of the Midlands - the majority of this region seeing heavy and persistent snowfalls from Friday midday onwards lasting well into the night. Just the chance that the far NE Midlands, such as Lincolnshire may escape, but this too subject to change, should the front make it a little further east into the block? All in all, for virtually the whole of Wales and the Midlands Friday is looking like a severe snowfall event and probably not a good idea too travel, and best stock up in case you are snowed in over the weekend! Temperatures on Friday perhaps up to 5c for West Pembokeshire, but not higher than +1c for Lampeter and a bitter -2c for Rugby. Wndchill quite severe with all the snow and strong winds, not the best day to venture out for most perhaps? Be sensible take a Snow Day![/size][/font][font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
    [attachment=154659:PPVI89 snow Day Friday.png][attachment=154660:ecmt850_048 heavy snow Fri.png][attachment=154661:prectypeuktopo widespread snow Fri.png][/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
    For Saturday, still further snow to come would you believe, as the trough gradually dies a death over the south-west. Wales and the SW Midlands looking like being hardest hit on Saturday, the snow depths piling up even further, and with the 36 hours or more of snow modelled in these areas, we are looking at a foot of level snow quite widely, and drifts many times this that would block roads and railways. The snow should begin to peter out during the afternoon. Light winds on Saturday night over the deep snow cover, means that if the cloud clears some really low temperatures by Sunday morning. Not modelled this evening, but GFS has being showing minima of as low as -14c over Snowdonia, and -8c over the Mildands. Freezing fog in places too on Sunday morning. These figures are easily attainable but depend on the clear skies. Mostly dry and bitterly cold on Sunday, just scattered snow showers, mainly for the East Midlands, few places reaching zero.[/size][/font][font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
    [attachment=154662:ecmt850_072 further snow Sat.png][attachment=154663:ecmt850_096 Ec cold temps Sun next snow threat looms.png][attachment=154664:met_120 next snow threat Mon.png][/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
    The very cold weather looks like lasting well into next week too, and with another deep Atlantic low set to hit the cold block on Monday this could herald yet more disruptive snow for the supposed return to work![/size][/font][font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
    [attachment=154665:ecmt850_120 snowy Mon.png][/size][/font]
  7. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Rather cool, sometimes windy, rain or showers at times to Thursday. Dry and warm start to September[/b]

    A short drier interlude for a few days last week for most of us, although the Lampeter area did get heavier and more widespread showers on Tuesday than anticipated!. The Aberystwyth area had thunderstorms during Friday, but yet again these evaded the Llanwnnen area! The Midlands experienced heavy showers and thunderstorms on Saturday.. August is turning into another thoroughly wet month for west Wales, with well over 4 inches rainfall here at Llanwnnen, and still a few more days to go to tot up more. Further rain at times this week, sometimes windy, and fairly cool too, but drying up Friday with a warm weekend in prospect.


    Sunday is a bright dry day to make the most of before tomorrow's rain. Temperatures around the average reaching 19 - 21c. A deep low sat to the north-west of Ireland will bring rain and wind for Bank Holiday Monday (typical!). Rain arrives into west Wales early in the morning, with this then on and off well into the afternoon before it turns brighter with some showers. Some heavy and possibly thundery showers during Monday evening for west Wales. The rain will have reached the Midlands around lunchtime, and it stays cloudy with rain at times well into the evening here. A fresh to strong south-west wind. Quite a cool day given the cloud, wind and rain, temperatures reaching 17 - 20c at best.
    [attachment=139105:brack0a Mon DL rain and windfrom W.gif][attachment=139106:Rtavn364 rainy BHM.png][attachment=139108:Recm482 rain to showers BHM.gif]

    Tuesday is a bright and breezy day with sunny intervals and a few showers, most of these light. Temperatures around average. The next Atlantic low is dumb-belling towards Ireland about it's parent system bringing more rain into west Wales during Tuesday night. This band of rain moves through quite quickly and should have cleared west Wales by early Wednesday morning, while at the same time arriving in the Midlands. Sunny spells and showers, heavy at times, for west Wales throughout Wednesday, with the brighter, showery weather reaching the Midlands during the afternoon. Another rather cool day on Wednesday. The low pressure is moving away towards Scandinavia during Thursday and we are left with a cool north-west air- stream and plenty of showers, more especially for the Midlands. The showers perhaps dying down across west Wales during the day, with more in the way of sunny spells here as the afternoon goes on. A rather cool and breezy day temperatures only reaching 17 - 19c.
    [attachment=139107:brack1a bright breezy Tue.gif][attachment=139109:Recm962 rain to showers Wed.gif][attachment=139110:Rtavn781 dumb-belling L Ire rain to showers Wed.png][attachment=139111:brack4 Cool showery Thu.gif][attachment=139112:Rtavn1081 cool rather showery Thu.png]

    High pressure then takes over across at least southern Britain as we head into September! The ridge arrives Friday so a mostly dry day with sunny spells, however still on the cool side with a keen westerly breeze, temperatures not reaching 20c. High pressure is then centred over or close to southern England during next weekend. So, next weekend and into the start of September is looking dry and warm with sunny spells, an ideal opportunity to get to the beach before Autumn proper arrives!
    [attachment=139113:Rukm1441 dry R Fri Sat.gif][attachment=139114:Recm1442 Sat H south dry q warm.gif][attachment=139115:Rtavn1621 H south Sat.png][attachment=139116:Recm1682 strong warm H weekend.gif][attachment=139117:Rtavn18617 warm dry Sunday.png]
  8. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Mostly dry and warm with sunny spells[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]A mainly dry week gone, with just a couple of mm falling at Llanwnnen and Coventry, however parts of the Midlands did get wetter weather for a time on Friday and Saturday, although the Midlands narrowly missed out on the heavy rain that affected Eastern England throughout Saturday. Temperatures average to warm early last week, then on Thursday very warm for Wales, Llanwnnen reaching 25.7c with plenty of sunshine, while parts of the Midlands managed 25c on Friday - by which time West Wales had cooled down to average. Saturday was the coolest day of the month at Llanwnnen with a high of just 17.4c, while Capel Curig in Snowdonia only reached a decidedly Autumnal 15c. Very cool last night across Wales, the low at Bala just 2.6c and 3c at Sennybridge - a taste of Autumn![/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]With relatively low pressure over the UK on Sunday, the morning sunshine in the west may flatter to deceive, with cloud building up to produce a scattering of showers during the afternoon, especially well inland, although coasts could well remain sunny all afternoon! Conversely the cloud is breaking up over the Midlands with sunny spells developing along with a few sharp showers. Highs on Sunday a warm 20c for West Wales and 23c for brighter parts of the Midlands. Clearing skies tonight, lows generally 10 to 12c. A ridge of high pressure should kill off the showers for Bank Holiday Monday, which for 99% of us is a lovely warm and sunny day! Highs on Monday 22 to 25c widely with only gentle breezes. A clear and comfortably cool night follows the warmth, lows 7 to 10c for most places. The ridge holds over the UK on Tuesday although a weakening cold front is moving through it from the NW later in the day. Another fine and warm day for most, decent sunny spells, especially the Midlands and South Wales. It may though cloud over for Wales through Tuesday afternoon with heavy showers breaking out in places, chiefly over the hills. Maxima generally 21 to 24c with very little wind. Clear spells overnight temperatures no lower than 10c.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Mid week and high pressure still sits over Wales and England, so another largely dry and warm day on Wednesday, just the isolated light shower in places, sunny spells again and highs between 21 and 24c, a bit cooler for coastal West Wales as onshore breezes develop. The ridge holding sway across southern Britain during Thursday too, another fine and warm day with sunny spells, although sea fog and drizzle may affect some stretches of coast with a moistening SW drag of air by this stage, any fog most likely for Cardigan Bay. Maxima on Thursday generally 19 to 23c, but cooler where foggy along coasts. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]The weather may be turning more unsettled by the end of the week but this by no means certain at this stage, as the various models are showing a sharp split in their interpretations of the atmosphere from Friday. One scenario is for a marked trough to cross the UK during late Friday or Saturday bringing a spell of rain, strong winds and much cooler conditions, while the alternative is for high pressure to maintain over or close us, keeping it mostly dry, bright and reasonably warm. Generally speaking though, very little rain is being modelled, even by the weekend, and so any fronts are suggested to pass through quickly, and with only a short spell of rain expected. The worst outcome would be that of latest ECM model run which would see a decidely Autumnal cool, windy and showery weekend, but this is a marked 'outlier' amongst the overall model suite, and a fine and dry, if perhaps cooling weekend is more likely an outcome. In any case, early September is promising further dry, settled, and warm weather.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3][attachment=183410:PPVG89 warm sunny BHM.png][attachment=183411:ecmt850.072 M dry warm Tues.png][attachment=183412:PPVJ89 Warm dry Tue perhaps clouding over WW later.png][attachment=183413:PPVL89 dry warm Wed.png][attachment=183414:ecmt850.096 warm dry mid week.png][attachment=183415:metslp.96 fine warm mid week too.png][attachment=183416:h850t850eu fine dry but cooling weekend.png][attachment=183417:ecmt850.168 cool windy showery weekend is outlier.png][attachment=183418:mgram_Birmingham m dry warm week, divergence FRi Sat.png][attachment=183419:prcpWarwickshire mainly dry week.png][attachment=183420:prmslAbertawe~-~Swansea H all week.png][/size][/font]
  9. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Changeable, some rain or showers, cool down mid-week, a drier and perhaps warmer weekend[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]A lovely dry and fairly sunny spell lasted until Thursday gone. We were in a cool air mass so although it felt pleasant in the strong sunshine, clear skies at night gave a run of late Spring frosts. Lowest readings include -2.9c here on Tuesday night, while Bablake, Coventry had it's lowest May reading since 1984 getting down to -0.5c, with Church Lawford just up the road managing -2c, these unusually low levels with Summer not far off! For historical comparison, here in West Wales, May 1996 saw a punishing run of often sharp frosts at Llanpumsaint, Carmarthenshire, the hardest being -4.5c on the 5th. On the 16th of the same month -4.5c was recorded in Northamptonshire (courtesy of the Climatological Observers Link). April 2013 was a cool but fairly dry month nationally, 65mm rain the total here at Llanwnnen was below average, however some areas were very dry, and Rugby recorded just 13mm for the whole month. Nothing this though compared to April 1938 when barely a drop of rain, just half a millimetre fell at Lampeter all month! Only very small amounts of rain again then in the past week but this week something more substantial in the way of rain but plenty of dry weather between times. Variable temperatures this week: Bank Holiday Monday is warm, then a cool down mid week but it could warm up again somewhat over next weekend[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Dry on Sunday afternoon bar the odd spit of drizzle for hills of West Wales, sunny spells more especially for the Midlands and where it will be quite warm. Highs on Sunday a cool 13c for coastal West Wales and 19c for brighter parts of the Midlands. Sunday night is dry with no frost. Bank Holiday Monday is actually a nice one! A slack southerly air-stream gives the highest temperatures of 2013 so far. It should also be fairly sunny, although patchy cloud affects West Wales, even some sea mist rolling onto some unfortunate beaches. A dry day for all with light winds, maxima ranging from 13c where sea mist plagues coasts, 19c inland West Wales, and a possible 21c (70f in old money) for the sunnier Midlands. Unfortunately Monday is not heralding the start of a fine, warm spell! [/size][/font]
    [attachment=170080:PPVG89 dry warm BHM.png][attachment=170081:ecmt850.048 dry warm BHM.png]

    [font=arial][size=3]Dry with clear spells Monday night, but changes begin as low pressure approaches Ireland. Cloudy with rain at times on Tuesday for West Wales, mainly light this rain; a bright start for the Midlands clouding over afternoon and threatening some rain later in the day. A bit of a cool down on Tuesday highs of 13 to 16c for West Wales, but still rather warm for the Midlands at around 18c or 19c, moderate SW winds. More active fronts arrive from the SW during Tuesday night and Wednesday, so that all parts get a welcome (?) soaking (good for the allotments and gardens). An area of heavy and perhaps thundery rain crosses south Wales and the Midlands Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Wednesday then very disturbed with showers or longer spells of rain, heavy and thundery at times, but with some sunny intervals too. ECM and UK Met Office models indicate a spell of very windy weather later on Wednesday which may bring westerly gales to exposed places also! Disappointing temperatures for Wednesday with highs between 12 and 14c generally. By Thursday the low will be close to Scotland as it starts to move away east. However, another unsettled and showery day in prospect, a cool and fresh NW wind too, but sunny spells between the showers. Hail a distinct possibility with the cool unstable air on Thursday, although hints of a ridge approaching the SW means showers should start to die out for SW Wales afternoon, perhaps even leading to a sunny evening here. Poor maxima of 10 to 13c on Thursday. Showers die out elsewhere too on Thursday night with clear periods, and there could be a ground frost with winds becoming light, lows between 2 and 5c. Friday and high pressure is attempting to ridge across southern UK so a drier theme to our weather for the end of the week. [/size][/font]
    [attachment=170082:PPVJ89 some rain cooling Tue.png][attachment=170083:PPVL89 cool windy rain and showers Wed.png][attachment=170084:ecmt850.096 very disturbed and windy cooler Wed.png][attachment=170087:h850t850eu Wed rather wet.png] [attachment=170085:h850t850eu cool showery Thu.png][attachment=170086:ecmt850.120 H close to SW FRi m dry.png]

    [font=arial][size=3]Subtle differences in the model output for next weekend, a band of high pressure will be at least close to our SW and south, but with low pressure influence also as lows track to the north of Scotland. Between high and low pressure a rather cool west to NW flow off the Atlantic. The upshot of this is that a reasonably dry but not especially warm weekend seems likely, although weak fronts may bring bands of cloud and light rain from time to time. In this scenario it would be cool and breezy. Another scenario is that the high exerts more strongly and extends across southern UK, so with a more definitely dry picture with sunny spells and higher temperatures. In the former cooler case maxima just 12 to 16c, in the latter a warmer 16 to 19c, in either case the Midlands will get the warmer conditions.[/size][/font]
    [attachment=170088:ecmt850.168 r cool weekend little rain times.png][attachment=170089:fine dry weekend.png][attachment=170090:mgram_Birmingham.png]
  10. TonyH
    [font=Helvetica]
    [b]Quite warm and unsettled; rain or showers at times, but dry, bright spells too.[/b][/font]
    [font=Helvetica]
    A generally mild and dry week gone, Ceredigion in particular seeing some rather warm conditions of 17c in the first half of the week, although it did turn somewhat cooler from Friday. High sunshine amounts too early in the week especially, Coventry had almost unbroken sunshine from Sunday to Wednesday totalling 43.7 hours for these 4 days while Llanwnnen had an estimated 62 hours over the week.. With clear skies nights were chilly with frosts, many rural areas getting a night or two below zero, Llanwnnen getting down to -2.2c on Friday night, however the cities were milder, the Urban Heat Island of Coventry keeping minima above 1.5c all week. Most places have had a completely dry week, at Llanwnnen there have now been 12 consecutive dry days. [/font]
    [font=Helvetica]
    A much more unsettled week to come although still with some rather warm and dry weather at times. A low is moving NW along the English Channel during Sunday bringing wet and windy weather to southern England. Much of Wales and the Midlands may well escape the worst of this rain, but a rather cloudy and quite windy afternoon and evening in prospect, although there may be sunny intervals at first. The rain area to the south then pushes northwards into our regions, most of this should be quite light and patchy before some heavier stuff affects southern parts of Wales and the SW Midlands later this afternoon and evening perhaps with thunder. On the mild side for Sunday maxima between 14 and 16c. Most of the rain dying out after midnight, a mild night lows around 8c. The low is quite close by our SW on Monday so an unsettled day with showery rain breaking out especially afternoon and for the Midlands, SW Wales may escape with little. Some sunny intervals too and with a rather warm ESE flow temperatures reaching 16 to 18c, so not a bad Easter Monday if you avoid the rain! A slack lowish pressure regime for Tuesday so lighter winds but with rain or showers in places once more, but some places staying generally dry. Highs 13c where wet but a mild 17c possible should it brighten. No frost again on Tuesday night as with much of this week.[/font]
    [font=Helvetica]
    Atlantic air is attempting to move over the UK mid week associated with low pressure in the mid Atlantic, but with still something of a rather warm Continental feed into the east. Maybe a dry start to Wednesday but showery rain about through the afternoon which does not preclude some warm sunny intervals especially for the Midlands. Highs between 13 and 17c, best most likely for the Midlands. Pressure becoming ill-defined again on Thursday, a slack synoptic pattern so less wind than on Wednesday but with showers, perhaps a longer spell of rain in places, temperatures not bad again reaching 14 to 16c as some sunny intervals should occur. Just the chance of a ground frost Thursday night then speculatively dry and bright on Friday but too far off for sure. Next weekend looks unsettled too with quite a deep low moving towards SW Britain, this would bring showers and longer spells of rain and some strong winds. April looking like finishing on a cool and changeable note.[/font][font=Helvetica]
    [attachment=211195:PPVG89 rain i n places EM.png][attachment=211196:ecmt850.048 slackening Tu.png][attachment=211197:PPVL89 some rain Wed.png][attachment=211198:ecmt850.096 some rain Wed.png][attachment=211199:ecmt850.120 slack mild some showers TH.png][attachment=211200:ecmt850.144 dry poss FRi.png][attachment=211201:ecmt850.168 L SW unsettled weekend.png][attachment=211202:prcpWarwickshire some rain at times.png][attachment=211203:prmslWarwickshire unsettled weeek.png][attachment=211204:t850Warwickshire mostly mild week.png][/font]
  11. TonyH
    [font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][size=4][b]Headline: Mostly dry with sunny spells; quite cold with night frosts[/b]

    So ends the coldest March since at least 1962, and the coldest month of 'Winter'. This fact all the more remarkable as we had a fairly cold Winter, this the first time March has been colder than a colder than average Winter since 1786 for Central England! Here in West Wales there were only small amounts of snow through March, although some sleet or snow fell on 13 days. It has been very snowy for Warwickshire, and the temperature at Coventry has not been above 5c since Thursday 21st, a prolonged spell of exceptional cold for the late March. Last Sunday was one of the latest ever Ice Days for Coventry with a high of -0.4c. Daytimes were not as cold here in West Wales, but there have been some very low night temperatures, with -8.4c at dawn on Thursday, and then -7c on Saturday morning and -6.6c this Easter Sunday morning (incidentally Braemar in Scotland has recorded the coldest ever UK Easter Sunday at -12.4c). It is though notable how quickly the temperature recovers after dawn with the strong sunshine, it was up to +2c by 9am here a rise of over 8c in 2 hours. At least it has been a mainly dry week, and we are set to have another mainly dry week ahead, but on the cold side for early April with frosts expected on each night, although as we will be into April and the sun is gaining strength, not as cold as this past week. Spring limping into action as Winter starts to lose it's grip but at least the Daffs are out!

    Our high pressure that has blocked the mild Atlantic for so long is centred north of Scotland until mid week, so the mostly dry and decidedly chilly/ cold spell continues. Low pressure is squeezing into the high on Monday so a fresh to strong SE wind to start the week, especially windy West Wales. Sunny spells for most places and predominantly dry, just the odd wintry shower possible for the East Midlands. Maxima on Monday in the 5 to 8c range, and it almost goes without saying that the nights will be seeing sharp Spring frosts throughout the week, and as the winds lessens mid week. Some rather severe frosts again, locally down to -6c. Tuesday another dry day, lighter winds so temperatures a touch higher reaching 7 to 9c, and not feeling too bad with the sunny spells. By Wednesday a similar story with the easterly wind bringing air from a still thoroughly chilled Eastern Europe. Feeling cold again in the breeze on Wednesday in spite of the sunny spells, temperatures well below average reaching 6 to 9c, and generally dry once more, just a few wintry showers getting into the Midlands from off the North Sea.
    [attachment=167402:PPVJ89 r cold dry Tues.png][attachment=167403:h850t850eu Tues r cold m dry frosts.png][attachment=167404:ecmt850.072 slack E sharp frosts few wintry showers Wed.png]

    Winds turn more NE on Thursday so certainly not the warmer direction that we may be desperate for! Thursday and Friday quite a fresh NE wind blows bringing some wintry showers (rain, sleet or snow) mostly to the Midlands, while many places remain dry. Bright with some decent sunny spells, and West Wales may be fairly sunny later in the week, so not feeling too cold here out of the wind. Highest temperatures for Thursday and Friday a cool 7 to 9c, the highest readings for coastal West Wales where it is sunniest. Further frosts overnight, lows between -1c and -4c.
    [attachment=167405:PPVO89 Chill NE some wintry showers Thu.png][attachment=167406:ecmt850.120 chill NE some wintry showers Fri.png][attachment=167407:h850t850eu cool NE Fri few showers.png]


    High pressure close by next weekend but still the air is cool. Generally dry with plenty of sunshine but again some sharp frosts by night, as low as -5c in places. Daytime temperatures on the mend and eventually by Sunday we could hit the dizzy heights of 10c (although still below average!).[/size][/font]
  12. TonyH
    [b]Headline: April showers, some longer spells of rain, cool to average temperatures[/b]

    A very sharp frost for April last Thursday night, down to -6c at Llanwnnen.
    Coventry had as much rain on Tuesday and Wednesday as it did in the whole of March. Rugby was even wetter receiving a very useful 24mm in the bid to prevent a hosepipe ban this Summer! These parts also saw a little snow for a while. West Wales has only had small amounts of rain of late, although this will change in the coming week.

    Low pressure edges towards Scotland during Sunday, so a lot of cloud and becoming quite windy as the day goes on. Rain and drizzle at times, especially during the afternoon and evening, but most of it light. Temperatures around the April average reaching 12 or 13c.
    The trailing cold front looks like developing a wave on Easter Monday, which could be a bit of a washout depending on how this feature develops. The worst of the rain is likely to be in the afternoon, and along with a strong south-west wind to spoil the holiday. Temperatures rather irrelevant given the wind and rain but on the cool side.
    [attachment=132943:brack1 wave rain Mon.gif] [attachment=132944:Rtavn541 wet windy Mon.png]

    During the middle of the week (Tuesday to Thursday) we are still affected by this low which moves into the North Sea or Scandinavia. Rather cool with showery north-west winds. As is the case with showers, some places will get quite a few downpours, while others, even just a few miles away, escape with a mostly dry day. Hail and even the odd crack of thunder are distinctly possible given such an unstable air mass. Temperatures on the cool side, generally only reaching 10- 12c, however, where the showers are fewer it will feel pleasant enough in the sunny spells and could manage 15c at best, perhaps most likely for the Midlands this. Winds are lighter from Wednesday so that some of the showers, where they occur, could well be prolonged, giving an hour or two of wet weather. Clearing skies overnight along with the cool air mass will see slight frosts developing.
    [attachment=132945:brack4 Showers L Scand.gif] [attachment=132946:Recm962 cool showery mid week.gif]

    The usual uncertainty for the end of the week, but there are suggestions of higher pressure and even a ridge moving in by Saturday, so a drier outlook with further sunny spells, and fewer showers about by Friday and Saturday. Still cool though with the generally northerly drift, maxima only around 10c or so. GFS has particularly chilly air over us by next weekend, and is showing a hard frost for early Saturday, down as low as -6c for parts of Wales and the Midlands - this is a long way off to predict and so best just bear this in mind, as in reality the frost may turn out less severe.
    [attachment=132947:Recm1442 cool drier late week frosts.gif] [attachment=132948:Rtavn1562 frosty ridge Sat.png] [attachment=132949:Rtavn16217 cold night Sat.png]
  13. TonyH
    [b]Headline: [/b]
    [b][b]Mostly dry and very mild; much colder by Friday and next weekend[/b][/b]


    Quite a wet week gone, 2 inches of rain for Llanwnnen, although under an inch for Coventry. Temperatures around the average last week, each day reaching between 12 and 15c here, although the Midlands reached a mild 16c on Wednesday and Thursday, while parts of west Wales also managed 16c on Saturday (except the Lampeter area!). Even warmer into the new week as we get a drag of very mild Continental air coming up from the SE. Temperatures will widely get into the low 60's f, the highest of the month, and quite likely the last time we reach such dizzy heights until next Spring! A big drop in temperatures come next weekend when maxima will be almost 10c colder than the start of this week, say 8c rather than 18c! The really cold air is however missing the UK, this going to our north-east and bringing the first notable snowfalls of Autumn to Scandinavia by next weekend.

    Dense fog on the Bablake School, Coventry webcam this morning, and a ground frost here in west Wales- all very Autumnal. A lovely mild and sunny afternoon for us in west Wales, the fog over parts of the Midlands clearing to a bright afternoon (hopefully). Clouding over from the east overnight, so frost and fog is unlikely Monday morning. This is a warm front introducing the very mild air, but running into high pressure centred over Scandinavia, so not producing much in the way of rain. Mainly cloudy and damp on Monday, light rain and drizzle in places. Very mild air, but this only being realised should the sun break through and this not likely further west. Maxima on Monday ranging from 14c in cloudier west Wales to perhaps 16c where it brightens later over the Midlands.
    [attachment=142349:brack0a mild damp places Mon.gif]

    With the weak front lying over west Wales by Monday night, a damp one here, and for many places a foggy night, but with the mild air mass now over us no frost. With high pressure over northern Britain and low pressure west of Iberia a very mild, slack ESE drift of air over England and Wales for Tuesday and Wednesday. Were this September then this set up could well produce 80f and sunshine, however we are now at the end of October and the power of the sun is much declined. The potential is certainly there for warmth even this late on, and 70f has occurred into November in the past, however such warmth depends very much on the cloud amounts this week (and very difficult to predict). The drift is off the near Continent from between east and SE which suggests better chances of sunny spells for west Wales compared with the Midlands, however most of us should see at least some pleasant and warm sunny spells on Tuesday or Wednesday. Where it remains largely cloudy temperatures pinned no higher then 15c, but given several hours of afternoon sunshine 18c is a more likely figure, these higher readings more expected over south- west Wales - some 5c above average for the end of October. Another ingredient in the mix for mid week, with light winds and humid air, is that given any clear intervals by night, thick fog will form and last well into the mornings, so Tuesday and Wednesday mornings will see thick fog in places, but certainly no frost, temperatures not falling lower than 8c.
    [attachment=142350:brack1a v mild variable cloud Tue.gif][attachment=142351:Rtavn601 dry v mild Tue potentially warm.png][attachment=142353:Rtavn6017 potetially bright and warm Tue.png][attachment=142352:Recm722 v mild dry mid week.gif]

    Changes start on Thursday with the high pressure pulling away towards Greenland, and starting to open up the floodgates for much colder northerlies. However the mild air just about hangs on for the south on Thursday, which will be another mostly dry, even bright day, although cooler with maxima between 12 and 14c. The cold front moves down from the north later on Thursday, bringing cloud and a few showers, and feeling much fresher by Thursday night. By Friday we are in a deep flow of cool Arctic air, originating virtually from the polar region. There may be a legacy of rain over SW Wales at first on Friday should the cold front pep up which some models are going for, but then a generally dry but very cool spell. This will by no means be a cold 'blast' such as we would be getting were we in December, however a very noticeable cool down especially following on from the mild weather of mid week. This very cool air is being driven down between a large low over Scandinavia, so plenty of early snowfall for them, and high to our north-west, it is though much moderated by our surrounding seas that are still quite warm in October. Therefore, not anticipating that it will be cold enough for any wintriness this far south, but we will certainly feel the chill Friday and over next weekend and with frosty nights. Mostly dry still into the weekend, just the chance of an isolated shower getting down, but if these occur most likely rain only, although the highest hills of Wales would be seeing sleet or snow showers. Sunny spells, but with a chill north to NE breeze next weekend and overnight frosts for many places, down as low as -3c in more prone spots such as Llanwnnen - this being quite a hard frost so early in the season, but probably too much breeze for much in the way of fog to form. By day, very cool for the end of October, maxima only 7 to 9c, so 10c colder than mid week! Signs are that is will stay on the cool side into the start of November too.
    [attachment=142354:brack4 mild south Thu H Gr.gif][attachment=142355:Recm1202 big cool off Fri.gif][attachment=142356:Rukm1441 v cool NE Fri.gif][attachment=142357:Recm1682 v cool m dry weekend frosty nights.gif]
  14. TonyH
    [font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Unsettled, showers and longer spells of rain most days; average to cool temperatures[/b][/font]

    [font=Helvetica]Many areas escaped the worst of the showers ending up with a reasonably dry week past, although on Thursday parts of the Midlands were rather wet, Coventry getting 8mm, but the showers were very hit and miss even then. A mild/ quite warm week too, West Wales saw temperatures reach 18 or 19c early in the week, with similar values then being achieved across the Midlands on Wednesday. Cooler to end the week though, a widespread frost for the Midlands on Friday night, Church Lawford one of the colder spots at -1.6c minimum, but at least a lovely sunny day followed here, whereas West Wales was mostly cloudy on Saturday.

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]April overall was a mild month with variable but generally quite close to average rainfall. The Aberystwyth area has been rather dry though, as indeed was Long Lawford, near Rugby. Some monthly totals:[/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]Llanwnnen 98.8mm[/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]Pembrey Sands 91mm[/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]Little Rissington 61.4mm[/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]Coventry 48.4mm[/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]Hereford 45.2mm[/color][/font]
    [font=Helvetica][color=rgb(0,0,0)]Trawscoed 42mm[/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]Church Lawford 39mm[/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]Long Lawford 33.2mm[/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]It turns much more disturbed this week with mean low pressure centred close to Scotland, with frequent bands of rain or showers crossing the UK, so we will be fortunate to get away with a single completely dry day! At least the spells of rain should not last too long and complete washout days are unlikely. Rather warm in places early in the week, but then often on the cool side, and it will be quite windy at times too. No frost issues this week.[/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]High pressure over SE England on Sunday so another generally dry, fine day in prospect, although weak fronts are crossing NW Britain and threaten some drizzle at times for NW Wales. Some sunny spells, especially for the Midlands where it is warmest on Sunday highs around 17 possibly 18c, compared with 14 or 15c for West Wales. A mostly dry night with clear spells to follow and no frost. Atlantic fronts queueing up to our west on Monday heralding what will be an unsettled week to come. A dry morning on May Day but any sunshine is soon blotted out over West Wales, while some good sunny spells last well into the afternoon for the Midlands where it will be quite a warm day. Mostly light rain on and off for Wales afternoon, this reaching the Midlands before dusk, but only light and patchy stuff. Highs on Monday ranging from 13c for coastal West Wales to 18c for the East Midlands. The SSW wind freshening during the afternoon. Wales seeing some heavier rain during Monday evening, this clears soon after midnight. An unsettled Tuesday with showers and some longer spells of rain about, but with some areas missing the worst of it. Some sunny intervals but quite a fresh SW breeze and highs close to the early May average at 14 to 16c. Perhaps fewer showers and a better chance of getting a mostly dry day on Wednesday, sunny intervals but quite cool and breezy highs of 12 to 15c, mildest over the Midlands.[/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]Back to rain or showers on Thursday, quite windy and again on the cool side. More of the same for Friday too, showers, even a longer spell of rain should be expected, along with quite strong winds and temperatures average at best so no higher than 16c 61f anywhere. The unsettled and often rather cool theme looks like being maintained through next weekend too, so yet more showers or longer spells of rain and windy at times, not very Springlike! [/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=212101:PPVG89 rain pm WW r warm Mids Mon.png][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=212102:PPVJ89 unsettled Tu.png][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=212103:h850t850eu unsettled Tu.png][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=212104:PPVL89 some showers Wed.png][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=212105:h850t850eu showery Wed.png][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=212106:PPVO89 showers lsr TH.png][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=212107:ecmt850.120 showers lsr r windy late week too.png][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=212108:ecmt850.168 unsettled r windy weekend.png][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=212109:prcpWarwickshire some rain most days.png][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=212110:prmslWarwickshire unsettled week.png][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=212111:t850Warwickshire ave to cool week.png][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=212112:mgram_Birmingham.png][/color][/color][/font]
  15. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: MIxed; some rain at times, but equally dry and warm at times too (no washout!)[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]A fantastic dry, warm and sunny week here in West Wales. Almost unbroken sunshine, I estimate 90 hours since this time last week. The cool air mass early in the week illustrated by 3 successive grass frosts on my lawn from Sunday to Tuesday, athough air temperatures stayed above plus 3c. The MIdlands has not fared as well being plagued by cool NE winds and low cloud from time to time, that stuck virtually the whole of Wednesday keeping it cool at below 15c max, this returning again over this weekend, reminding Midlanders how cool the North Sea still is in early Summer. Each day rose above 20c for inland Wales, with some very warm days late in the week, warmest being 25c from such diverse places as Porthmadog, Lampeter and Llanelli on Friday. At Coventry, the cool North Sea breeze prevented temperatures from getting above 20c except on Friday (20.1c). This time last year 80mm rain had fallen so far in June at Llanwnnen and 67mm at Coventry- exceptionally high figures, and the devastating floods had just occurred in the Aberystwyth and Machynlleth areas, but in total contrast so far this month ZERO rain. There will be some rain in the coming week, and for West Wales a cloudier week, but we lose the NE flow, and so the Midlands actually becomes warmer with above average temperatures for a change here! Thankfully no chance of the washout conditions of June 2012 are being predicted.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Yet another sunny and warm day for West Wales on Sunday, whereas the ongoing saga for the Midlands of 'will it, won't it clear?' regarding the North Sea cloud. As with Saturday, there should be sunny spells during the afternoon for the Midlands, especially the West Midlands, however none too warm at only 17c or so this afternoon, compared with 20 to 23c highs over West Wales. A clear and cool night follows, subtle changes in wind direction should halt the return of the North Sea cloud sheet for the Midlands, so close to a grass frost here too, lows of just 3 to 6c. HIgh pressure is declining over the UK during Monday as Atlantic fronts queue up to our west. Monday though a largely dry and warm day with sunny spells, the Midlands joining in as well, highs close to 21c on Monday. Just the chance of an afternoon shower over the Welsh hills. Low pressure is centred to the west of Ireland on Tuesday, with the remnants of our high over the North Sea. Fronts do cross the UK on Tuesday but these are expected to be weak and only produce a little rain in places, as is typical, West Wales more likely to be cloudy and damp, with sunny intervals for the Midlands on Tuesday. A rather warm and humid SW flow with maxima of 19c for West Wales and 22c for the Midlands (quite an improvement in fortunes here). We are in the warm sector of the low on Tuesday night so a mild, sticky kind of Summer night, lows just 12 or 13c. It could be quite a wet night for Wales as more active fronts make their presence felt, but probably only a little light rain for the Midlands. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Low pressure sytems close by to the west and north through Wednesday, so an unsettled and rather cloudy day with further rain at times, some heavy for West Wales perhaps, although again the Midlands most likely only seeing small amounts. A cooler day with all the cloud about, highs between 16 and 19c, below the mid June average. The rain should have cleared by Thursday morning, with a ridge over us, so a fine sunny day, if not especially warm as we are in a relatively cool westerly airstream, maxima ranging from 17c for coastal West Wales to 20c for the Midlands. There is a chance that the rain may linger longer into Thursday towards th east, meaning the Midlands could get a wet Thursday morning. Difficulties in forecasting Friday, although ostensibly under the influence of the ridge still, a plume of warm air is crossing the near Continent, and some heavy rain may well develop over England and Wales during Friday, but impossible to say where exactly this will effect and where will remain dry. So for Friday, something to bear in mind is that it may be turning wet even if it looks promising to start with, and if cloudy and wet, then a very cool day no higher than 13c, contrasting starkly with warmth for areas that stay dry.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Next weekend, and disapponting for us in Wales, as compared to this stunningly warm and sunny weekend we are currently experiencing, we have low pressure, cloud and rain threatening instead! Not raining all the time, more a case of sunny intervals and showers type weather through the weekend, possibly with a longer spell of rain in the mix also. Saturday probably the drier day, indeed some areas escaping with a warm sunny day, more especially the Midlands, closest to high pressure over the near Continent. Sunday and more widespread showers likely.[/size][/font]
  16. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Cooler with rain or showers at times; brief hot interlude Thursday to Friday; weekend very uncertain[/b]

    Our heatwave came to an end last week, spectacularly for parts of the Midlands with thunderstorms, Nottingham getting almost 3 inches rain in 24 hours between Monday evening and Tuesday evening, from a succession of thunderstorms causing severe flooding in the city and environs. Monday was the last really hot day, reaching 31c across Warwickshire and 25 to 28c for much of Wales. The rain held off for us in West Wales, where it was not until Wednesday night that some rain fell and then just 3mm at Llanwnnen, barely enough to settle the dust. Although cooler it was still a warm week for all places, and even by Saturday temperatures were reaching 22 to 26c widely. More heavy rain and thunderstorms for the Midlands on Saturday evening, over half an inch in just 30 minutes causing flooding in places such as Coventry, the total rain for the 24 hours to 10am this morning being 31.1mm at Bablake School, Coventry and 24mm fell at Rugby, no doubt some places received a lot more than these spot figures, such was the localised flooding. Mid and North Wales also saw a decent fall of rain overnight, properly ending the 4 weeks of mostly dry weather throughout July to date, and even SW Wales has not been spared with heavy showers on Sunday morning.

    The week ahead looks decidedly unsettled, but not cool as winds will generally be between west and south and even the seas are relatively warm after the recent heatwave by now. A warm but at times wet week then sums it up, with another, albeit most likely brief hot spell later in the week. With a complex of low pressures over or close to the British Isles Sunday sees some heavy downpours knocking about, most places getting at least a couple through the day, and more for Wales where thunder and even hail is a possibility. Still fairly warm highs between 20 and 23c, with gentle breezes. Showers dying out over the Midlands tonight, but some continue to affect parts of West Wales, where you may even see flashes of lightning should you look hard enough. Low pressure centred to our north on Monday and with high pressure well away over the south of France, nothing to prevent showers or longer spells of rain, heavy in places. With winds more SW even west and quite fresh, a touch cooler on Monday highs 19c for West Wales coasts and 22c for the Midlands, although there will be sunny intervals. Again, most showers die out to leave a generally dry Monday night. Unsettled again on Tuesday with the complication of a wave low zipping across the south as we go through the day. A dry start for most places, especially the Midlands, but then a spell of wet weather likely to affect at least South Wales and the South Midlands. Impossible to predict at this stage exactly how far north this feature will track but it may be that more of us experience rather a wet day than is presently suggested in the models. Assuming cloud and rain , then Tuesday may well be the coolest day for several weeks, highs between 18 and 20c, along with a fresh SW wind, although it would only take a few sunny breaks for temperatures to get higher, as the air will be inherently warm. A mild, rather sticky night follows.

    Wednesday, and the next low pressure is moving in off the Atlantic towards Ireland, this dragging up warm, humid air over Wales and England. Unfortunately for West Wales too much cloud and even rain at times on Wednesday for this warmth to be realised, highs below 20c here with hill and sea fog also likely. However, it should brighten in the afternoon for the Midlands with a humid 24c quite possible, although even here a little rain could occur at times. This low then drags up a plume of heat from Spain during Thursday, which after a warm night above 15c, sees strong sunshine developing for many areas. Always the chance of more could and perhaps some showery rain for West Wales, but quite a hot day, maxima at least 25c for West Wales and perhaps touching 30c for parts of the Midlands. One potential spoiler here is if the low is centred more over Ireland than slightly to its west, then West Wales may get a more cloudy and possibly damp day than expected, but lets be positive and go for a very warm day with sunny spells even here! The Midlands more or less guaranteed a hot and sunny Thursday! The heat and humidity may set off a scattering of thunderstorms during Thursday evening but many places missing these. Another warm, uncomfortable night to follow, no lower than 18c or so for some coasts and cities. Friday is a 'will the heat hang on' kind of day, as cooler, fresher air to the west starts to move in, although a chance it hangs on right through to the weekend for SE England according to ECM model? My hunch is another very warm/ quite hot day with sunny spells on Friday, with again the risk that some heavy showers and thunderstorms break out in places. Highs somewhere in the 23c to 29c range on Friday, least warm for coastal West Wales, where the fresher conditions should eventually spread in.

    As often the case, differing model signals for the next weekend, some have been indicating high pressure settling down but we will have lost the heat, so this would mean a pleasant and fairly dry weekend, and more especially Sunday, with sunny spells and temperatures in the low to mid 20s C. ECM however is this morning showing a nasty, thundery low crossing the UK during next Saturday night having formed over hot Spain, this scenario would bring more thunderstorms, heavy rain and localised flooding over next weekend! Benign or stormy we shall see?
  17. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Continuing very disturbed, spells of rain or showers on most days, any drier interludes most likely Midlands; limited wintriness[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]An exceptionally wet start to February for much of West Wales, already 129mm (over 5 inches) rainfall has fallen which is double what fell in the whole of Februaries 2012 and 2013 and is even at this early stage the wettest February since 2007 (158.4mm). Despite this flooding seems to have been relatively minor locally, with coastal flooding more of a feature than river flooding so far. Undoubtedly one of the wettest spells in the rainfall history of the area, since the start of it all on December 12th 615mm has fallen here in just 60 days! To put this into context the average annual rainfall at Coventry is about 670mm. Nowhere near as wet for the Midlands but nonetheless a wet start to the month, Coventry on 28.2mm as of this morning, which is well over half of the February average.Temperatures last week overall fairly close to the average was sometimes quite mild at other times rather chilly - this being often within the same day given the current volatility of our weather! Snow is still notable by it's absence this Winter although the Brecon Beacons did have a covering first thing on Friday. Strong winds on Saturday, gusts of 79mph at Mumbles, 65mph Aberporth, 55mph Llanwnnen, 54mph Coventry and 52mph at Coleshill, Warwickshire. A very notable feature of this Winter has been the sheer number and frequency of deep lows that have crossed the UK resulting in unusually low atmospheric pressure, besides the quantities of rain and recurring strong winds. Both Wednesday and Saturday saw the barometer fall below 970mbar across Wales and 975mbar across the Midlands, something that may usually only happen once or twice in an typical Winter. In fact at Valley on Anglesey the pressure dropped to 958mbar on Saturday. The Lampeter area and a few other parts of Wales caught a thunderstorm too on Saturday.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Little change in the weather for the coming week, continuing very unsettled with further deep lows heading our way - but surely it cannot be as wet here again! Hard to pin down details like timing really such is the speed the systems are being driven across the Atlantic by the Jet Stream, so the wet periods may vary somewhat from is detailed below, suffice to say we will all see spells of wet weather or heavy showers almost daily through the course of this week again, with the Midlands favoured to be less wet than West Wales as the hills continue to suck out the moisture. Quite cold at times too with a chance that some us see a little of the white stuff this week, more especially on Tuesday when colder air is over the UK.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Some lively rain and hail showers about Wales today - a few continuing mainly close to coasts through Sunday night but with plenty of dry conditions. Clear spells this evening leading to a fairly widespread ground frost and local air frost, however the South Midlands may cloud over with a little rain late in the night. A ridge of high pressure keeps it fairly dry throughout Monday too, after any early light rain clears the East Midlands, then just the odd shower about chiefly for West Wales. Sunny intervals, light winds and highs of 6 or 7c about average for February. Clearing skies means a ground frost sets in during Monday evening down close to zero for many areas away from the coast. An Atlantic trough moves into Wales during the early hours of Tuesday bringing fairly heavy rain, squally winds and hill snow and which soon sweeps east across the Mildands through by dawn, by which time it is clearing West Wales. As colder air tucks in behind this trough some of the rain may turn to sleet or wet snow at lower levels too for a time, this not expected to lay though except above about 1000 feet, and in case it is cleared away by midday. Sunny intervals and some showers afternoon, again with hill snow, few though getting to the Midlands. Highs on Tuesday a rather cold 4 or 5c with a keen westerly breeze. Another widespread grass frost on Tuesday night as most showers die out, 0c in places, the breeze and some continuing perhaps wintry showers preventing it from falling lower. It may be a dry, bright start to Wednesday - one of those dawns which flatters to decieve. A deepening depression is likely to move into Ireland on Wednesday bringing a further bout of wet and windy weather especially through the afternoon or evening. The exact track and timing still not certain but it has potential to bring more rough weather with attendant wind damage and flooding issues, sleet or snow is possible for higher ground of Wales. Quite a raw feeling day as temperatures may be no higher than 5 or 6c and the rain and wind. It should be clearing to blustery showers during Wednesday night, some of these heavy with hail and thunder with snow over the hills. Winds may lull enough for another ground frost by Thursday morning. Thursday looks like a day of sunny intervals and blustery showers, mostly for the west, and temperatures close to average at 6 or 7c, but with a fresh to strong westerly wind.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]A great deal of uncertainty as to detail as we get to the end of the week but it will continue unsettled. For Friday yet another low may end up somewhere over the UK, most likely the south, with more wet and windy weather. Differences in the nature of the beast this far out, but again it could have potential to bring stormy conditions and flooding once more. Rain or showers at times next weekend too, most for the west, with any drier interludes more likely for the Midlands. Very tentative signs that this prolonged highly disturbed weather pattern may relinquish somewhat towards the end of February, so that we may eventually see less in the way of rain with better chances to dry out between as the Jet Stream attempts to edge north of its present highly troublesome track? This probably not enough of a submission to prevent the wettest Winter on record however.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3][attachment=206775:PPVG89 odd shower.png][attachment=206776:PPVJ89 Tu rain band hill snow am r cold.png][attachment=206777:ecmt850.072 wintry showers perhaps Tu night.png][attachment=206778:PPVL89 eventually wet windy Wed.png][attachment=206779:ecmt850.096 DL cleared to showers midnight Wed.png][attachment=206780:PPVO89 windy showery Th.png][attachment=206781:ecmt850.120 showers Th.png][attachment=206782:h850t850eu another DL FRi.png][attachment=206783:ecmt850.144 flabby channel L Fri.png][attachment=206784:ecmt850.168 unsetteld weekend.png][attachment=206785:prcpSir~Gaerfyrddin~-~Carmarthenshire another wet week.png][attachment=206786:prmslWarwickshire very unsettled week.png][attachment=206787:t850Warwickshire r cold to ave week.png][/size][/font][attachment=206788:mgram_Birmingham.png]
  18. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3]
    [b]Headline: Mostly dry and mild to very mild with sunny spells but perhaps cloudier for the Midlands; overnight slight frosts[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Although we still saw some rain at times last week, it was generally a lot drier than over recent months. It became very mild across the Midlands and South Wales by Friday, highs of 14 or 15c in places. Then on Saturday the very mild weather was more widespread in spite of the wind, with across West Wales 14.9c the high at Llanwnnen, 15.4c Gogerddan, 14.4c Pembrey Sands and for the Midlands 16.2c Pershore and 14.4c Church Lawford, way above the early March average of 9 or 10c.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]
    At long last high pressure will be controlling the weather over the UK in the coming week with Spring well and truly arriving - we will see barely a drop of rain, some decent sunny spells and mild, perhaps even quite warm temperatures, although clear spells will result in slight overnight frosts. The Midlands more likely to suffer from cloud at times due to the drift of air off the nearby cool North Sea, whereas West Wales fares best for sunshine through to Thursday. Sunday is another fine and very mild day for most and much less windy than was Saturday. Plenty of sunshine for the Midlands and temperatures should manage 16 or 17c here, while for West Wales a cloudy start but this thinning to give sunny spells this afternoon for most of us with highs of 13 or 14c here. A weakening front moves down from the NW overnight Sunday with a spot of rain or drizzle possible in places and temperatures staying above 5c due to the cloud cover, although a clearance across NW Wales may result in a touch of ground frost here around dawn Monday. High pressure establishes over the UK during Monday but with the decayed front lying within it and probably across the Midlands. A cloudy start on Monday for most but hopeful that it brightens to give some afternoon sunshine, this more likely over Wales. Much cooler than Sunday for the Midlands especially, highs on Monday 11 to 13c but pleasant enough given the gentle breezes. Clearing skies and becoming frosty on Monday night, as low as -2c in parts of Ceredigion. Another dry day for Tuesday, sunny spells especially further west, as the easterly breeze could well bring areas of cloud to the Midlands afternoon. Highs ranging from 13c for Cardigan Bay to 11c for the East Midlands, so quite mild. Any cloud dissolves on Tuesday evening with frost readily forming, locally -2c for inland Wales by dawn. Mist and fog for parts of the Midlands around dawn Wednesday perhaps. High pressure centred just to our east over the North Sea on Wednesday which should be another mild and bright day with a light SE breeze. West Wales favoured for the best of the sunshine and temperatures, a rather warm 15c in places here but nearer 12c for those parts of the Midlands where afternoon cloud sticks around. [/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]
    More of the same for Thursday, so after an early frost and mist or fog in places, sunny spells once more, better sunny periods expected for Cardigan Bay. Thursday could be the mildest day of the week with highs 14 to 16c quite widely and just a light breeze.Yet another slight frost possible for Thursday night. Subtle changes during Friday as a low passes to the north of Scotland shifting winds around to the west or SW, this means the best of the temperatures and sunshine tranfer to the Midlands by the end of the week. It should be a dry and bright day everywhere, although it may cloud over somewhat in the afternoon for Wales, highs 12c for West Wales and perhaps 15c even 16c for the Midlands. A weak cold front may bring a little rain on Friday night and looks set to cool things off more generally into the weekend, but some disagreement as to just how much cooler, and in fact the Midlands could stay decidely mild through much of next weekend too? High pressure next weekend to our SW but close enough to still provide plenty of dry weather. Just a few showers in places for Saturday and with a keen NW breeze pegging temperatures back to 10 or 11c maxima for West Wales. Sunday probably milder again but rather cloudy with a little drizzle in places but this a long way ahead![/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]
    Looking even further ahead some of the charts are indicating much colder weather perhaps with snow in places as we move into the later stages of March![/size][/font][font=arial][size=3]
    [attachment=208960:decaying front brightens Mon.png][attachment=208961:PPVJ89 r mild sunny spells Tue.png][attachment=208962:ecmt850.072 weeks pattern ESE mild ss.png][attachment=208963:PPVL89 mild bright esp WW Wed.png][attachment=208964:ecmt850.120 mildest Th perhaps.png][attachment=208965:PPVO89 VM ss Th.png][attachment=208966:h850t850eu wind shift some rain WW late Fri.png][attachment=208967:h850t850eu R from SW weekend m dry.png][attachment=208968:ecmt850.168 mild NW flow weekend.png][attachment=208969:t850Warwickshire mild all week.png][attachment=208970:prcpSir~Gaerfyrddin~-~Carmarthenshire m dry week.png][attachment=208971:mgram_Birmingham.png][/size][/font]
  19. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Unsettled with some rain at times, and often windy; cool to average temperatures. Fine prospects next weekend[/b]

    A virtually bone dry week just gone for a change, and a warm one too. Temperatures reached 25c in Warwickshire and 22c at Llanwnnen, very respectable levels now we are into September. Sunday is the day of changeover to cooler and more unsettled conditions that will predominate in the coming week. Occasional rain, although not with especially large amounts, along with some strong winds at times during this week ahead. Good prospects currently for next weekend.

    The warmth and sunshine is hanging on for one last day over the Midlands, temperatures up to 25c once more. However although fairly warm this morning, it is now cloudy and quite windy here in west Wales. After a lovely Sunday, it will cloud over by this evening for the Midlands but remain dry. For west Wales this afternoon, mostly cloudy and quite windy and some rain will spread over during the course of the afternoon and this evening, although probably not so heavy for most parts. Some mostly light rain at times for many places tonight, and a fairly warm night too with all the cloud. This rain is along a cold front attached to a deep low over Iceland, and we are still in this low's circulation during Monday. A generally dry day for the Midlands on Monday with sunny spells, and a dry morning for west Wales too. However, there is a second cold front slowly crossing Ireland which will bring some more rain into west Wales later in the afternoon and into the evening, and slow progress, but some of this rain getting into the Midlands too during Monday night. Temperatures close to the average on Monday reaching 18 to 20c in a moderate south-west breeze, so perhaps feeling quite pleasant for the Midlands tomorrow.
    [attachment=139663:brack0a second CF approaches.gif]

    With the cold front clear, Tuesday is a bright and breezy day with a few showers scattered about. Temperatures down so reaching just 15 to 18c, and feeling cool with a fresh westerly wind. More fronts come swiftly in off the Atlantic during Tuesday night bringing bands of rain, these lasting well into Wednesday, and this time some of the rain could be heavy, so this should be the wettest day of the week. It will also be quite windy and cool on Wednesday with temperatures of 18c at best.
    [attachment=139664:brack1a bright breezy cooler Tue.gif][attachment=139665:Rtavn602 cool breezy Tue.png][attachment=139666:brack2a succession of fronts Wed windy.gif][attachment=139667:Rtavn781 rain cool Wed.png]

    We are within the broad warm sector of the next and deep Atlantic low by Thursday morning, with high pressure over the Bay of Biscay having an influence. The Midlands may well have a mostly dry day with some warm sunny intervals developing, but cloudier for west Wales with a little rain or drizzle in places too. Temperatures reaching 18c or so for west Wales but up to 21c where it brightens over the Midlands on Thursday.This contrast is due to our being in a warm Tropical maritime airmass which commonly dries out after crossing the Welsh hills to give warm, bright weather for the Midlands, while west Wales often stays dull and damp. More general rain for all likely during Thursday night as the cold front comes through. This deep low then moves into Scandinavia during Friday, so more strong winds to come, but with any rain soon clearing to sunny intervals and showers, some of which will be heavy. With the north-west winds quite a cool day on Friday.
    [attachment=139668:Recm962 R Thu.gif][attachment=139670:Rukm961 Biscay H drier Thu.gif][attachment=139669:Rtavn1022 warm sector windy Thu.png][attachment=139671:Rtavn1261 DL Scand Fri showery.png]


    Next weekend is looking promising at this stage (a long way off!) for coinciding with a dry, bright and rather warm interlude. The ECM model even keeps high pressure in charge well into the following week, so Summer may not be quite done for yet! Should these (one models) charts come off then it will be very warm, well into the 70's f by a week Monday, we shall see?
    [attachment=139672:Rtavn1621 weekend H.png][attachment=139673:Recm1682 H south warm dry weekend prospect.gif]
  20. TonyH
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Often cool and showery, some sunny spells, windy at first; perhaps mostly dry and becoming warmer Friday to Saturday[/b][/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]The worst of the rain and showers held off last week, so most places ending up with a reasonably dry, bright and warm week. Some exceptions as always, on Monday and Tuesday some places caught downpours with thunder but these few and far between, then a wet Tuesday night, Valley on Anglesey getting 43mm rain in less than 12 hours. The nights were cool at times last week, readings of around 7c in rural areas, Shobdon, Herefordshire getting down to 6.5c last Sunday night, and then just 5.1c at Sennybridge Thursday night, and here at Llanwnnen 6.8c the low first thing Friday. Temperatures in the average to warm category (low 20s celcius) for the most part last week, but without any especially high temperatures, the highest I have seen being 24.2c at Church Lawford on Thursday, then Friday with 24.6c Llanwnnen, 24.8c Coleshill and 25.7c Wellesbourne, Warwickshire which was the warmest spot in the UK. The warmth on Friday set off further thundery showers and storms over the East Midlands, Nottingham getting flooding - 2014 has been a very thundery year![/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Some heavy rain and thunderstorms in places this morning associated with the remnants of ex- hurricane Bertha that are presently crossing Wales and England. Indeed some parts of England in particular at risk of severe thunderstorms, even tornadoes today, such is the input of energy and mixing of differential wind and temperatures within this system. The rain has already cleared this Sunday morning to sunny intervals and showers across West Wales (WW) while the rain continues into early afternoon for the Midlands, as said, with a risk of thunderstorms here. Highs Sunday afternoon in the 17 to 21c range, and it will turn quite windy as we go through this afternoon. Most of the showers and storms die out this evening to leave a largely dry and quite cool night but a breezy one, some showers still affecting Welsh coastal districts though.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]The deep low that was Bertha sticks between NE Scotland and Scandinavia through the first half of this coming week, about which blow showery and cool west or NW winds. A similar pattern then through to at least Wednesday or Thursday, basically one of sunny intervals and showers, some heavy, and even a longer spell of rain may be in the offing, more especially perhaps during Tuesday. There will also be hail and thunder in the showers in places. Temperatures on Monday near normal at 18 to 21c so not feeling bad out of the wind in any sunny breaks, but Tuesday through to Thursday are decidedly cool Summer days, we will be lucky to see 20c and even cooler for NW Wales in particular where some days may well not exceed just 16c (61f) - poor indeed for August! Nights rather cool too in this first half of the week at somewhere around the 10c mark. [/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Pressure is on the rise from Thursday but even the end of the week looks essentially cool and showery, the NW breeze less of an issue by this stage, so perhaps not feeling all that bad in the sunny spells. Maxima on Thursday and Friday cool in the 16 to 20c range still, best for the East Midlands. With the lighter winds by the end of the week and given clearing overnight skies, some decidedly cool late Summer nights can be expected, down to just 4 or 5c perhaps in rural locations, though nearer 8 to 10c for cities and coasts. Showers should become fewer and farther between on Friday and with some decent sunny spells by this stage as a ridge approaches from the west.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Our ridge looking a temporary affair next weekend although we may get away with a dry, bright and rather warm Saturday, low 20s celsius over the Midlands. By Sunday though there may be showers about once more although at least temperatures should stay reasonably warm. Looking further ahead out towards the end of August (and Summer 2014) and the models have a rather unsettled and not so hot look about them - although that could still alter for the better![/font][/color]
    [attachment=221390:PPVE89 DL NE Eng tonight.png][attachment=221391:ecmt850.024 DL NE Eng tonight.png][attachment=221392:PPVG89 windy showery MO.png][attachment=221394:PPVJ89 r windy showery poss lsr TU.png][attachment=221399:h850t850eu showers lsr TU.png][attachment=221395:ecmt850.072 r cool showery perhaps lsr TU WE.png][attachment=221398:h850t850eu cool showery WE.png][attachment=221396:PPVO89 cool showers less windy TH.png][attachment=221397:ecmt850.120 r cool showery TH FR less windy.png][attachment=221400:ecmt850.168 brief R Sat more showers Su but warmer.png][attachment=221402:h850t850eu fine Sat turning unsettled Sun warmer.png][attachment=221403:prcpWarwickshire showery week.png][attachment=221404:prmslWarwickshire R WEND.png][attachment=221405:t850Warwickshire r cool all week.png][attachment=221406:mgram_Birmingham showery cool week.png]
  21. TonyH
    [b]
    [b]Headline: Very unsettled, plenty more rain, more flooding prospects. Cool.[/b][/b]

    With just over a week of June gone most places in west Wales and the central MIdlands have already reached or exceeded the average June rainfall for the whole month. The Midlands had well over an inch last weekend, while Llanwnnen had over 2 inches falling over Thursday and Friday. These amounts, however, pale into insignificance compared with the amounts that fell over north Ceredigion and around Machynlleth causing the almost unprecedented flooding. The official Met Office weather site at Trawsgoed, near Aberystwyth, recorded over 80mm on Friday alone, so a month's rain in a single day! Radar accumulations suggest double this amount over the higher ground north- east of Aberystwyth and around the Dovey estuary. Hopefully, a rainfall event of this magnitude will not recur for many decades in that area!

    Some notably cool weather too for the start of June, Coventry had one of it's coldest June days on record last Sunday, a maximum of just 11c, while during Friday afternoon, Llanwnnen did not get above 11c either.

    Although a bit of a respite from the really heavy rain for a few days, we will see more heavy rain and showers this week, and there is the potential for another deluge later in the week, one to watch developments on ... but at this stage it's really not looking that good with further flooding likely.

    A rather cool and showery set up until the middle of the coming week, with longer spells of rain in places. A little low is running up the English Channel during Sunday, with some showery rain for many parts, and the south Midlands getting some more general rain later today and tonight from this low. Showers for Monday, mostly for the Midlands, and poor temperatures for Summer, struggling to reach 16c. During Tuesday another little low feature is set to develop over Wales, and so enhancing the rain and showers here, meaning wetter in the west for Tuesday, but perhaps a drier interlude for the Midlands. Unfortunately this low sticks over Wales through into Wednesday, so the potential for some large rainfall totals again here in places yet again. Temperatures will be suppressed on Tuesday and Wednesday where it is cloudy and wet, no higher than 14c, but given any sunny intervals a more respectable 19c could be reached for the more fortunate.
    [attachment=135254:Recm482 cool showery mon and tue.gif] [attachment=135255:Rtavn602 showery mostly cool Tue.png] [attachment=135256:brack2a small L Wales Wed.gif] [attachment=135257:Rtavn841 stubborn little feature over Wales perhaps wet again.png]

    Rainfall and flooding wise - even worse prospects for the end of the week. Another deep Atlantic low is slowly approaching later on Thursday, and this is set to gradually cross England and Wales during Friday and Saturday. Large rainfall totals are being modelled from this for Friday especially, easily an inch or more widely, and some areas could get a lot more unfortunately. These type of systems, such as we saw last week, and that is expected for the end of this week, contain marked temperature contrasts, which often result in copious rain, and not helped by the fact that these are so slow in crossing the UK, so there could well be more serious flooding issues by the end of the week, and perhaps more especially for Wales again. Let's just hope that the Aberystwyth and Machynlleth areas are spared the worst on this occasion. Friday could also be a notably cold June day again too, with projected highs of under 10c for north Wales on Friday, although this, at least is subject to change for the better? Although the end of the week could well turn windy for a while, a repeat of last Friday's damaging gales is considered unlikely. Nonetheless, a very cool, and very wet prospect to end the week - about as bad as it can get in Summer!
    [attachment=135258:brack4 another deep moist rainy L to SW Thu.gif] [attachment=135259:Recm1202 deep wet L approaches Thu.gif] [attachment=135260:Rtavn1322 fro L temp contrast.png] [attachment=135261:Rtavn1324 wet Fri.png] [attachment=135263:Recm1442 L still there Fri very wet.gif]

    No let up from this exceptionally poor Summer weather even next weekend which continues to appear low pressure dominated.
    [attachment=135265:Recm1682 wet weekend.gif] [attachment=135266:Rtavn1801 unsettled still next weekend.png]
  22. TonyH
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][b]Headline: Very cold with some snow showers, becoming less cold with some rain, night frosts[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]The prolonged dry spell has ended, although not spectacularly so, with only small amounts of rain for some of us over recent days, so only a meagre 4mm here so far this month. Llanwnnen managed 21 dry days on the trot up to last Wednesday, 3 or 4 weeks is about as long a dry spell as we can expect here in damp West Wales! Most of West Wales and the Central Midlands had a lovely sunny day though last Tuesday, West Wales being the warmest part of the UK, Trawsgoed near Aberystwyth reaching 17.5c, Llanwnnen 16c and Coventry 14c. Tuesday saw a massive daily temperature range here from a dawn low of -5.5c to the afternoon high of 16c, a 21.5c rise in just 7 hours. West Wales has had a mild week, while temperatures have struggled to reach average for the Midlands since Wednesday with all the mist and murk. Hardly any daffodils out here in time for St David's Day and it is doubtful there will be many blooming even as we reach mid March, with a big change underway during Sunday to very cold conditions for the early part of this week, and then much of the coming week remaining quite cold for March.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]A raw, cloudy afternoon on Sunday with a decaying cold front over the Midlands giving light sleet or snow at times, enough for a covering in places, especially over high ground. Another front is trying to edge into SW Wales but only bringing it's rain into Pembrokeshire. Maxima of just 3c for the Midlands and 5c for West Wales. The weak front could just give a few snow flurries to parts of West Wales this evening before dying out completely, to leave a frosty night with clearing skies, although with further snow showers affecting parts of the Midlands to give a slight covering by morning in places here.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]High pressure is centred over Iceland on Monday with the low over France, a real squeeze in the isobars meaning a strong bitterly cold east wind. As the wind is strong, snow showers off the North Sea will make it across the Midlands, where there may be further slight accumulations, but the snow should not cause too many problems on Monday. A few snow showers even getting as far as West Wales, but generally dry with sunny spells here. This is the coldest incursion of air all 'Winter', but as we are now well into March, and days are longer and the sun higher in the sky, temperatures will get substantially higher than they would have with the same air in January. Still, a bitterly cold day, maxima of just 1 or 2c, and with significant windchill on Monday. Still a keen wind blows through Monday night, a really penetrating hard frost down to -4c widely, and -6c for a few. Meanwhile temperatures at 5000 feet up in the clouds will be -14c, the lowest 850hPa upper atmosphere temperatures for years.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=163744:PPVG89 Mon bitter windy snow showers.png][attachment=163745:ecmt850.048 Mon.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]On Tuesday we are between high pressure to the west and low to the east, another very cold day with a fresh NE wind. mostly dry with sunny spells, and just the odd sleet or snow shower for the Midlands, maxima of 3 to 5c. Less cold air seeps down from the north later Tuesday, so although frosty again temperatures only down to -2c or so. A lighter northerly breeze for Wednesday, sunny intervals but with some weak weather fronts moving down bringing some rain or sleet showers at times. Another cold day, maxima of 6 or 7c. Light winds and a ridge of high pressure for Wednesday night means a colder night, lows of -5c in places. Still under the ridge on Thursday so a fine and quite sunny day, but still rather cold maxima around 7c.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=163746:PPVJ89 Tues cold few showers.png][attachment=163747:ecmt850.096 m dry cold R Thu bright.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]By Friday things are changing with a low approaching NW Britain, milder SW winds with some rain at times, highs of 8 or 9c, close to the March average. This low remains over or very close to the UK next weekend so unsettled with spells of rain or showers at times, and with quite cold air within the circulation, hill snow will be a threat, so the Peak District and Welsh hills perhaps seeing further snow next weekend. [/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=163748:metslp.120 milder turns unsettled Fri.png][attachment=163749:h850t850eu L nearing NW UK Fri rain at times.png][attachment=163750:ecmt850.144 Fri Sat rain or showers milder L to Ire.png][/size][/font]
  23. TonyH
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Unsettled and often rather cold: wintry showers and longer spells of rain and (chiefly) hill snow; damaging gales late Wednesday into[/b][b] Thursday[/b][/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Last weeks highlights[/b]

    Fog persisted much of last Sunday over parts of the Midlands and by teatime Church Lawford had only managed 1.8c, in contrast Pembrokeshire was quite mild with Milford Haven at 9.2c maximum. After the quiet start plenty of mild, rather unsettled and windy weather in the past week. Orographic (hill forced rainfall) produced 66.6mm at Capel Curig on Wednesday although rainfall totals for the week away from Snowdonia were modest over West Wales and negligible across the Midlands. A very mild week overall with Friday was remarkably mild for January, highest reading being 16.1c at Pershore (some 9c above average) while most places reached above 13c. Long-standing records broken in places too, for example Coventry where the high of 14.5c on Friday pipped the 14.4c recorded in Janury 1944. Central Europe too experienced this remarkable Winter warmth, with 25c recorded in northern Italy and 22c in the Swiss Alps on Saturday! It was often windy from Thursday to Saturday but we were far enough south to escape the worst of the damaging winds experienced up north.

    [b]The week ahead[/b]

    A disturbed week to come as some deep lows cross the Atlantic bringing showers or longer spells of rain. Showers, wintry in nature at times too, as behind the frontal systems we will be in cold polar air-masses, and significant snowfall is likely over high ground above about 1000 feet, this perhaps coming down to lower ground too briefly from time to time especially later in the week, so a fair chance quite a few of us will have seen our first snow cover of Winter come next weekend albeit not sticking for long. Often windy this week, and there are strong indications of widespread damaging gales later Wednesday into Thursday.

    Sunday afternoon is mostly dry, bright and breezy for the Midlands but is cloudier with some light showers for West Wales (WW) highs 7 to 9c, some places catching a passing shower, most likely Snowdonia. Wind picking up tonight as Atlantic fronts move in these bringing light rain to West Wales (WW) after midnight. A reasonably mild night but quite windy. Monday is then affected by a wriggling front across southern Britain which struggles to clear away SE. A mostly cloudy and windy day with rain at times, some heavy bursts, especially over South Wales and the South Midlands where the front slows down giving more prolonged rain afternoon into Monday evening. The rain should have cleared NW Wales and the NW Midlands by the end of the afternoon, with the winds easing too. Highs Monday a mild 9 to 11c. The rain eventually clears the South Midlands around midnight with some showers affecting WW by late night, and a local ground frost.

    A showery westerly airstream for Tuesday, complications perhaps with a trough feature accentuating showers afternoon and this dragging in colder air which could turn the rain or showers wintry especially over high ground. Just the chance should the precipitation be heavy enough and winds light enough so that evaporative cooling takes place which would have the effect of bringing snow down to lower levels too during Tuesday afternoon, so one of those Winter days when a surprise snowfall cannot be ruled out for some areas, even giving a slight covering, but most likely this would be restricted to land above 200m. Maxima Tuesday 4 to 7c, but turning colder through the afternoon, and for the most part a rather windy day. A wintry mix of rain, sleet, hail and even snow showers keep going through the evening and night for WW but it becomes largely dry for the Midlands where there will be a widespread frost down to -2c in places, frost more patchy across WW but is likely inland where showers hold off.

    Any remaining showers die out WW Wednesday morning, and for many it is a bright, dry and frosty start to the day with little sign of whats to come! The huge temperature contrast off the Eastern Seaboard of North America spawns a rapidly deepening low which is UK bound during Wednesday. This may be a very nasty low with the likely track taking it across Scotland during Wednesday night into Thursday. As the tightest isobars (pressure lines) and therefore strongest winds are nearly always found south of a low centre then England and Wales look like being pounded by gales, and potentially severe gales during Wednesday night, so for many areas damaging winds are likely between Wednesday evening and Thursday morning. Before that though most of Wednesday is dry bright and chilly, temperatures no higher than 4c away from WW coasts until evening, although set to rise further to 5 to 7c overnight. Winds though will strengthen through the afternoon as WW clouds over. Heavy rain and gale force winds then quickly move into WW early evening and onto the Midlands by midnight. The latest GFS model is showing a particularly nasty 950mbar low slowly crossing Northern Ireland Wednesday night with zones of severe gale force winds about its southern flanks. It could be that the gales ease later in the night only to pick up once more to severe gale during Thursday and worst affected would be Irish Sea coasts where gusts are likely to reach 80 to 90mph, even inland gusts would be over 60mph. At least the worst of the rain is gone by dawn Thursday!

    Further showers or longer spells of rain during Thursday with hill snow, and winds could still be severe, although most models do indicate an easing of the gales during the day. A chilly day too Thursday, feeling cold given the windchill, highs 4 to 6c, but milder for Pembrokeshire at 8c. Winds may ease enough for a widespread frost on Thursday night. Friday and Saturday are controlled by low pressure to our north and NE so a rather cold NW flow to end the week bringing wintry showers. Maxima just 3 to 5c both of these days and so hill snow could well be building up above 1500 feet, even lower down some temporary accumulations of snow possible away from coasts, but a general kitchen sink mix of rain, sleet, hail, some snow and even a clap of thunder Friday and Saturday along with drier brighter intervals! Clear spells will permit widespread overnight frost and icy stretches as temperatures dip as low as -3c locally, more generally inland though -1c.

    Next Sunday signs of a transient ridge giving a dry interlude ahead of wet and windy weather for Sunday night or Monday. This mix of weather looks like continuing through the rest of the month, although any prolonged cold snowy spell seems unlikely.[/font][/color]
    [attachment=237810:PPVG89 windy rain times.png][attachment=237815:viewimage Mo lingering front rain.png][attachment=237811:PPVJ89 surprise snow chance feature TU.png][attachment=237812:ecmt850.072 wintry sh TU.png][attachment=237813:PPVL89 DL heavy rain gales later Wed.png][attachment=237814:ecmt850.096 gales heavy rain We night.png][attachment=237816:viewimage storm Th showery.png][attachment=237817:PPVO89 gales showery hill snow TH.png][attachment=237818:viewimage FR wintry showers r cold windy.png][attachment=237819:ecmt850.144 r cold wintry showers frosts FR SA.png][attachment=237820:ecmt850.168 wk R m dry Su.png][attachment=237821:viewimage chilly week mostly.png][attachment=237822:viewimage frequent rain spikes drying WEND.png][attachment=237823:mgram_Birmingham.png][attachment=237824:viewimage sub 980 TH R WEND.png]
  24. TonyH
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]
    [b]Headline: Cool and showery at first, becoming mostly dry and warm from Wednesday; more unsettled next weekend[/b][/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]
    The Midlands saw some rather warm and quite sunny weather up to last Tuesday, in contrast West Wales has been quite dull with just fleeting sunny intervals. May is often the sunniest month of the year here in West Wales. Thus far sunshine figures have been very disappointing, with just 22 hours the estimated figure here at Llanwnnen, not much brighter on the coast either, just 30 hours at Aberporth to date - so a long way to approach the average 218 hours for the mpnth of May. Some rain and showers last week although at least there was plenty of dry weather up to Wednesday. Maximum temperatures were close to the early May average 14 to 16c for much of last week - after the above average start over the Midlands - although it did feel chilly in the wind at times. Nights were quite mild with all the cloud and no frosts occurred. Saturday was a cool, wet and windy day over much of Wales, particularly wet over the hills, Capel Curig the wettest place in Europe with 60.6mm. Winds gusted over 60mph in exposed places yesterday, Mumbles near Swansea recording 63mph.[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]
    Some fine and warm weather on the way eventually in the coming week as high pressure settles over the UK for a while, but a return to cooler unsettled conditions looks probable over next weekend. Mostly cloudy and very cool on Sunday with a brisk west wind bringing showers or longer spells of rain. Parts of West Wales getting some prolonged spells of rain again throughout the day, enough for further localised flooding, Pembrokeshire perhaps escaping the worst of it today. Highs well below average at 11 to 13c. Showers tending to die out this evening except for some coasts and hills. With low pressure to our east the cool unsettled weather continues on Monday, which sees further showers and a possible longer spell of rain, some heavy bursts at times. Some sunny intervals especially Midlands, but few of us escaping the showers, cool maxima 12 to 15c but less windy than was the weekend. Clear spells as showers die out overnight Monday and a local grass frost cannot be ruled out. Still quite a cool NW flow Tuesday with scattered showers, especially over the Midlands where thunder is possible, better dry, brighter spells for West Wales and where some areas stay dry. Temperatures up a bit reaching 14 to 16c so feeling pleasant enough in the sunny breaks. Clearing skies brings the risk of a ground frost on Tuesday night, some spots getting close to 0c.[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]
    Changes during Wednesday as high pressures edges into the SW drying things out. Still a few showers about, but most places having a dry day with some sunny spells, although perhaps a rather cloudy afternoon for West Wales. A warmer day highs 15 to 18c, best for the Midlands. Clear spells overnight again with a grass frost in places although most places stay above 4c. High pressure is over southern Britain on Thursday which looks a lovely warm day with decent sunny spells, perhaps even a sunny day in prospect! Maxima 18 to 20c although cooler around coasts with sea breezes, but only light winds generally. No frost risk for Thursday night in spite of the clear skies lows mostly above 6c. Some differences in the models as to the situation of the high on Friday but another dry, warm day in prospect with decent amounts of sunshine. Dependent on the wind direction where will get the highest temperatures but there is the possibilty of a SE breeze which would mean highs in the 20 to 22c bracket. However should the high pressure pull to our west then cooler breezes would affect West Wales keeping it at 15 to 18c here.[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]
    Next weekend and the fine, warm interlude looks like ending as pressure falls across the UK. A lot of different permutations on offer for next weekends models, we may get another largely dry day on Saturday, with Sunday expected to see some rain and a cool down. Much of the remainder of May then looking quite unsettled but might be on the warm side.[/font][/color]
  25. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Cool and unsettled, showers or longer spells of rain; drier brighter intervals between, some ground frosts.[/b]

    From Summer to Autumn it felt like last week, 23c here on Tuesday but then by Thursday it was max 11.8c. Strong winds with gales in places as well as rain on Thursday, it felt like a Winter's day in Carmarthenshire! Hail and thunder in places in the showers on Saturday. The coming week will be disappointing again for those hoping for a warm and dry spell, as the UK is sat under a cool lobe of upper atmospheric air which is most conducive to the formation of heavy showers and longer spells of rain. Some areas will see quite large totals of rain this week, a couple of inches falling in some areas.

    Sunday is a cloudy, damp day, all of us eventually getting light rain and drizzle on and off, cool too no higher than 12 or 13c. With a deep low spinning towards northern Scotland, cool west to NW winds affect us on Monday, a day of sunny intervals and showers, some of these heavy with hail and thunder in places. Incidentally, the hills of Scotland seeing snow showers on Monday, so Winter goes on up there! Highs only between 10 and 13c, poor for the middle of May when we should be seeing 15 or 16c. Doubtful that anywhere will miss the showers completely on Monday as they turn more widespread through the afternoon. A secondary wave low looks set to cross southern Britain on Tuesday bringing more general wet weather, some places having 6 hours or so of heavy rain at some stage during the day, more especially over Mid and South Wales and the Midlands this. Outside of the main rain zone there will be showers scattered about too, but with a little sunshine between. A very cool and rather windy day, highs below 10c if it remains wet, and only 12c where it brightens in the afternoon. A chilly night follows the rain or showers with a ground frost for many, lows between 1 and 4c inland, but milder and frost free for coasts.

    By Wednesday a complex of low pressure covers the whole of the UK, at least winds will be lighter, however the strong morning sunshine will only serve to provide energy for large Cumulonimbus clouds to develop by midday. Some very heavy and slow moving downpours scattered about on Wednesday afternoon then, hail and thunderstorms for some of us, although as always in showery set ups some places may escape completely with a dry even bright day, although hard to judge where these 'lucky' spots will be. At least feeling warmer (or at least less cool) in any sunny spells and the more gentle winds, maxima generally 12 to 14c. Most of the showers die out to clearing skies on Wednesday night, and the threat once more of a widespread ground frost, although I do not think that yesterday's GFS run is correct with it's prediction of -3c for the Welsh Marches, which would be a very damaging late season frost if it came true. Our low pressure is still close to the south through Thursday although somewhat filled up, so a better day in prospect, only light winds, fewer showers and decent sunny spells. Where showers do occur they will be heavy with thunder possible again. Warmer on Thursday highs ranging from 14 to 17c, close to average. Clearing skies with local ground frost for Thursday night, although perhaps more cloudy for the Midlands.

    On Friday a new low forms over the Continent pumping up heat to Eastern Europe, but the UK remains on the cool side of this system. Some heavy and thundery rain associated with this low possibly affecting the Midlands for a time on Friday, but more probable is a continuation of the showery theme to our weather. Pembrokeshire could be favoured to miss the worst of the showers on Friday. Maxima on Friday then a near normal 14 to 17c. Hints of a ridge for next Saturday on last night's GFS run appear dashed, with a rather cool and low pressure dominated picture continuing throughout next weekend. The only uncertainty is which low pressure and from where! Needless to say further rain or showers at times next weekend, the lucky spots missing the worst of it and at least in any sunny spells it will feel warm even though maximum mercury readings in the teens belie this!
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