TonyH

Weekly weather guide: http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/309/entry-4579-weather-guide-monday-11th-to-sunday-17th-march-central-midlands-and-west-wales/

Coldest uppers for a good few years then Weekly weather guide: http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/309/entry-4579-weather-guide-monday-11th-to-sunday-17th-march-central-midlands-and-west-wales/

[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][b]Headline: Very cold with some snow showers, becoming less cold with some rain, night frosts[/b][/size][/font] [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]The prolonged dry spell has ended, although not spectacularly so, with only small amounts of rain for some of us over recent days, so only a meagre 4mm here so far this month. Llanwnnen managed 21 dry days on the trot up to last Wednesday, 3 or 4 weeks is about as long a dry spell as we can expect here in damp West Wales! Most of West Wales and the Central Midlands had a lovely sunny day though last Tuesday, West Wales being the warmest part of the UK, Trawsgoed near Aberystwyth reaching 17.5c, Llanwnnen 16c and Coventry 14c. Tuesday saw a massive daily temperature range here from a dawn low of -5.5c to the afternoon high of 16c, a 21.5c rise in just 7 hours. West Wales has had a mild week, while temperatures have struggled to reach average for the Midlands since Wednesday with all the mist and murk. Hardly any daffodils out here in time for St David's Day and it is doubtful there will be many blooming even as we reach mid March, with a big change underway during Sunday to very cold conditions for the early part of this week, and then much of the coming week remaining quite cold for March.[/size][/font] [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]A raw, cloudy afternoon on Sunday with a decaying cold front over the Midlands giving light sleet or snow at times, enough for a covering in places, especially over high ground. Another front is trying to edge into SW Wales but only bringing it's rain into Pembrokeshire. Maxima of just 3c for the Midlands and 5c for West Wales. The weak front could just give a few snow flurries to parts of West Wales this evening before dying out completely, to leave a frosty night with clearing skies, although with further snow showers affecting parts of the Midlands to give a slight covering by morning in places here.[/size][/font] [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]High pressure is centred over Iceland on Monday with the low over France, a real squeeze in the isobars meaning a strong bitterly cold east wind. As the wind is strong, snow showers off the North Sea will make it across the Midlands, where there may be further slight accumulations, but the snow should not cause too many problems on Monday. A few snow showers even getting as far as West Wales, but generally dry with sunny spells here. This is the coldest incursion of air all 'Winter', but as we are now well into March, and days are longer and the sun higher in the sky, temperatures will get substantially higher than they would have with the same air in January. Still, a bitterly cold day, maxima of just 1 or 2c, and with significant windchill on Monday. Still a keen wind blows through Monday night, a really penetrating hard frost down to -4c widely, and -6c for a few. Meanwhile temperatures at 5000 feet up in the clouds will be -14c, the lowest 850hPa upper atmosphere temperatures for years.[/size][/font] [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=163744:PPVG89 Mon bitter windy snow showers.png][attachment=163745:ecmt850.048 Mon.png][/size][/font] [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]On Tuesday we are between high pressure to the west and low to the east, another very cold day with a fresh NE wind. mostly dry with sunny spells, and just the odd sleet or snow shower for the Midlands, maxima of 3 to 5c. Less cold air seeps down from the north later Tuesday, so although frosty again temperatures only down to -2c or so. A lighter northerly breeze for Wednesday, sunny intervals but with some weak weather fronts moving down bringing some rain or sleet showers at times. Another cold day, maxima of 6 or 7c. Light winds and a ridge of high pressure for Wednesday night means a colder night, lows of -5c in places. Still under the ridge on Thursday so a fine and quite sunny day, but still rather cold maxima around 7c.[/size][/font] [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=163746:PPVJ89 Tues cold few showers.png][attachment=163747:ecmt850.096 m dry cold R Thu bright.png][/size][/font] [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]By Friday things are changing with a low approaching NW Britain, milder SW winds with some rain at times, highs of 8 or 9c, close to the March average. This low remains over or very close to the UK next weekend so unsettled with spells of rain or showers at times, and with quite cold air within the circulation, hill snow will be a threat, so the Peak District and Welsh hills perhaps seeing further snow next weekend. [/size][/font] [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=163748:metslp.120 milder turns unsettled Fri.png][attachment=163749:h850t850eu L nearing NW UK Fri rain at times.png][attachment=163750:ecmt850.144 Fri Sat rain or showers milder L to Ire.png][/size][/font]

Was it December 2010 the last time we saw uppers so cold anyone know

Clear intervals last night. Very mild today, cloud with sunny intervals, decent sunny spells 12 - 1600, light ESE breeze. Min: 6.1c @ 2300 yesterday evening Max: 12.6c @ 1300 Rain yesterday: 1.6mm Trace rain since 0900 today Currently; Cloudy. Temp: 5.6c RH: 91% Pressure: 1004mbar, rising slowly

Another mainly cloudy and mild day, a few brief sunny intervals, and also some bits and pieces of rain and drizzle. Moderate SE to south breeze. Min: 7.6c @ 0200 Max: 12.5c @ 1400 Rain yesterday: 2.0mm - so ending the 3 week dry spell Rain since 0900 today: 1.5mm Currently: Cloudy, dry Temp: 9c RH: 94% Pressure: 999mbar, rising slowly

Mainly cloudy and quite mild today, little light rain and drizzle at times. Moderate ESE breeze. Min: 7.7c @ 0700 Max: 10.3c @ 1330 Trace rain yesterday Rain since 0900 today: 1.5mm Currently: Drizzle, mild Temp: 8c RH: 95% Pressure: 993mbar, steady Any Wednesday:

Where might we find the SYNOP values? Thanks.

The West Wales desert effect, well it has been dry for 3 weeks!

Mainly cloudy and mild today, some bright intervals and just the odd spit of drizzle. Moderate SE breeze. Min: 5.8c @ 0500 Max: 12.3c @ 1400 Trace rain yesterday and today (21 dry days counted) Currently: Cloudy mild. Temp: 8.6c RH: 85% Pressure: 998mbar, steady.

Both colder min and warmer max than expected due to clear skies, min -5.5c, max 16c.

Trawsgoed was the warmest spot in the UK today, max 18c, after a min of -4c, so a 22c range there! http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/current?LANG=en&UP=0&R=310&TYP=tmax&ART=tabelle&LANG=en&DATE=1362520800&KEY=UK&LAND=UK&CONT=ukuk&SORT=3&SI=mph&CEL=C&UD=0

On weatheronline the min for Trawsgoed today was -4c and max 18c making a 22c range! http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/current?LANG=en&UP=0&R=310&TYP=tmax&ART=tabelle&LANG=en&DATE=1362517200&KEY=UK&LAND=UK&CONT=ukuk&SORT=3&SI=mph&CEL=C&UD=0

Clear with a hard March frost last night. Sunny today and became unusually mild for early March. Light to moderate ESE breeze. Patchy cloud after 1530. Min: -5.5c @ 0530 Max: 16.0c @ 1400 20th successive dry day. Currently: Clear intervals, quite mild Temp: 8.6c RH: 81% Pressure: 1001mbar, steady.

21.5c range today, from -5.5c to 16c:

Min -5c max 16c that's quite interesting.

Mild this side of the hills max 10.7c, currently -3c.

Clear intervals and a slight frost last night. Periods of hazy sunshine today, mild afternoon. Moderate ESE breeze. Clear and frosty this evening. Min: -2.1c @ 0630 Max: 10.7c @ 1500 Dry yet again yesterday and today (19 days) Currently: Frosty Temp: -3c RH: 94% Pressure: 1007mbar, falling slowly. And Sunday was...

Clear with a hard frost last night, lowest temp since -7.4c back in December. Sunny to 10am, and again since 1500, and hazy sunny spells 10-1500. Rather cold with a light to moderate ESE breeze. Min: -7.3c @ 0600 Max: 6.7c @ 1400 Dry again yesterday and today (18 days now!) Currently: Clear and cold. Temp: 2.5c RH: 83% Pressure: 1020mbar, steady.

Sunny but chilly here today, max 6.7c so not as cold as others. Wierd the south coast has been appreciably colder today, even Mumbles only managed 4c which is usually milder.

Latest weekly look ahead (and a bit of retrospective) for my regions of interest: http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/309/entry-4576-weather-guide-monday-4th-to-sunday-10th-march-2013-west-wales-and-the-midlands/

A mild but later wet week ahead: http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/309/entry-4576-weather-guide-monday-4th-to-sunday-10th-march-2013-west-wales-and-the-midlands/

A mild but increasingly wet week ahead: http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/309/entry-4576-weather-guide-monday-4th-to-sunday-10th-march-2013-west-wales-and-the-midlands/

[b]Headline: Mild, dry to start, then unsettled with rain at times[/b] A prolonged late Winter dry spell has been welcomed after the preceding deluge since last April! 17 consecutive dry days at Llanwnnen and counting, while the dry run at Coventry was broken by a measly 0.2mm fall on Friday. Overall February was rather dry for West Wales and average to rather wet for the Midlands. February being the driest month of the year in some areas, so although the 44mm that fell on Rugby during February seems a low figure it is actually slightly above average, Coventry was more definitely wet having 58mm ([url="http://bws.users.netlink.co.uk/"]http://bws.users.netlink.co.uk/[/url]) The dry weather lasts a few more days, we get much milder conditions in the coming week, but from mid week we see a return of the rain. A hard early March frost in places last night, here in my frost prone spot, -7.3c was recorded this morning, not unusual for March, but lower than any of the official UK weather stations today. High pressure that has dominated our weather for almost 3 weeks, slips away east during Monday, but still projects a ridge across the UK. So after another frosty start, Monday continues the dry spell, variable cloud with sunny intervals, highs of 8 or 9c again. Probably the last frost of the week on Monday night, and only a slight one at that, lows around -1c. On Tuesday we are between high pressure well to the east and low pressure edging up from the SW, with a mild SE airstream having originated over North Africa affecting the British Isles. Most places staying dry with sunny intervals through Tuesday, although clouding over later for West Wales with the odd spot of rain by evening. Maxima of 12 or 13c, the mildest we have seen so far this young year. [attachment=162839:PPVG89 H recedes dry bright Mon.png][attachment=162840:PPVK89 rain west late Tue.png] The low centred to the SW of Ireland continues to pump up mild SE to southerly winds throughout Wednesday and Thursday, more widespread outbreaks of rain or showers tracking north, with some heavy bursts of rain at times, so the Midlands also joins in with a wetter theme! Indeed West Wales could be in for a real soaking as a succession of rain fronts pass over later Wednesday and Thursday. Brief sunny intervals possible between the showery outbreaks, feeling mild in these, highs of 10 to 12c, but with a moderate to fresh breeze. Nights also much milder from mid week, so that by Wednesday night most places remain above 7c (time to reduce the Central Heating?). The low pressure keeps spinning around to the west or SW of Ireland even to the end of the week, with further rain or heavy showers about on Friday, perhaps some warm sunny intervals between, highs around 14c in places, more especially SW Wales, well above the early March average of 8 or 9c. On the other hand, any rain areas that do develop on Friday could well be slow moving, and where it stays wet highs nearer 10c. [attachment=162841:ecmt850.072 mild unsettled SE Wed.png][attachment=162842:PPVO89 mild very unsettled Thu.png][attachment=162846:metslp.96 mild unsettled Wed THu.png][attachment=162843:ecmt850.120 mild v unsettled Fri.png] Next weekend and some very cold air will be getting into Scotland from the NE, bringing snow in places up there, however Wales and the Midlands should still be in the milder air circulating the low close to our SW. Further rain and showers over the weekend, frosts unlikely, and with highs between 9 and 12c. A chance that the colder air makes it on Sunday but this should hold off until a late taste of Winter for the week that follows, even with snow showers in places, this cold snap strongly suggested by recent model output. [attachment=162844:ecmt850.168 unsettled cooler by Sun.png][attachment=162845:h850t850eu unsettled cooler weekend.png][attachment=162847:t850Caerdydd~-~Cardiff cold snap following week.png]

Surprised at the -7.3c hard frost this morning, some of that cold air made it!