alr1970

More pleasant temps forecast on the 00Z run. Still boiling in the southeast.

Oh look!

I don't buy it! 850 shows a huge outlier spike: and the 2m temp follows: while the pressure shows a huge sudden drop: but there's next to no rain in the top two charts. I would expect a big rain spike too in that case, it looks like a low-pressure sucking up warm moist air from the south which would normally indicate big storms. Anyway they're all in the chaotic region of the ensembles so I would give them no credence until the pack starts to agree and it all tightens up. And even then, in winter I've seen far off outlier cold signals become close up consensus cold predictions, then fade back to average as zero-hour arrives. Don't be disappointed if the same happens here.

La Nina is active and this is the pattern we can expect from that. Worryingly, global heating may make La Nina the default state of the Pacific and we'll have this every summer.

Next week looks a bit, meh! Dry, but overcast and with that wind it will feel a bit chilly.

Spent yesterday evening at West Kirby. All the time we were there, there was a big black cloud over Wales across the Dee estuary, but it never came any closer. Radar showed moderate rain from it, not really moving, some places must have got a great soaking. As the sun dropped it got quite pretty.

A whopping 4mm here, that´s double what we´ve had in the last 3 weeks. Beautifully sunny when I woke, clouding up a bit now.

Mad windy again today, I was narrowly missed by a failing branch out on my bike just now. Very warm enough, terrible desiccating conditions for plants and the soil. I bet my washing is dry though, only hung it out an hour ago.

Just a sprinkling of rain earlier, but the wind is notable here. Some huge gusts going through, they must be doing some damage with all the trees in full leaf. At least the ground is dry, that should help keep them up but branch damage seems inevitable.

Is it February already? I seem to have missed Christmas! Chart for tomorrow. Gales forecast in the west.

Is it February already? I seem to have missed Christmas! Chart for tomorrow.

No useful rain in my part of south Manc, not enough to drain off my greenhouse room at least. Soil surface is still bone dry. Drove down the M56 to West Kirby as the rain band passed through, there was nothing especially heavy and there was about 20 mins light rain at WK. Hope one of today's scattered heavy showers hits.

Perfect summer weather: not too warm cycling to the office, then lovely sitting out for my son's folk band playing a solstice celebration, topping it off with a couple of beers in Seymour Park while the Chillis played LCCC. I forgot to take a sweater but it didn't matter, still warm enough for shorts and short sleeves after 10pm. Marvelous!

Cooler at and after the weekend maybe? And some welcome rain for the gardens and reservoirs.

18c sunny but white skies here, we have a 100% heavy haze.

Shepherds are going to have a suprise tomorrow

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2022-atlantic-hurricane-season

I see Agatha has now crossed into the Caribbean and it's tenants are heading for Florida Hurricane season in the eastern Pacific is off to an early and potent start. Though May storms are rare there, Hurricane Agatha struck western Mexico, near Puerto Escondido, bearing maximum sustained winds of 105 miles (169 kilometers) per hour on May 30, 2022. That made the category 2 storm the strongest May hurricane to make landfall along the Pacific coast of Mexico since modern record keeping began in 1949, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Couple of pics of a moonlit lenticular cloud over Stretford on Saturday night (not my pics, lifted from a local FB group). Though having said that, the 06 run is even colder on the Op.

Nothing like that has come off at that range all winter, so I wouldn't worry. The Op run isn't quite an outlier, but it's well below the mean.

Looks like the Qatar flight is diverting, after the last two TUIs failed to make it stick.

I think yellow was about right for the rainfall, about 40mm here and 50mm on the moors. Predicting and warning for the flood impacts is more the job of the EA, and they were warning for South Manchester well before the peak. Speaking of which, still rising at Northenden but it looks like the peak just passed at Brinksway

We had two bursts here too. Here's one of them. Not as intense as one we had last year some time.

Not seen these colours for a while.