Summerstorm
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Posts posted by Summerstorm
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5 minutes ago, TSNWK said:
Back to the models and a bit of a strange looking one at Day 8 will be interesting to see where this ends.
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Moderate snow here temp 2.6 with dewpoint of -0.3 just the right side of marginal.
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Period of wintry mix for a while from the last shower but nothing settled since torrential hail shower this afternoon.
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27 minutes ago, Nick2373 said:
04th Jan and your Already writing it off?? How bizarre just like the UK weather.
I'd say writing it off till the last third of the month is reasonable where there are still opportunities up for grabs at that point. We are still looking for trends later in the month to see if the HP system over us is able to drain to the NW if the PV behaves and moves into Asia.
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Ah snow now I think some nice cooling from this shower from 2.6 to 1.8c in the last half hour
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Some snow I think here but just a wintry mix of hail/graupel and snow mainly. Edit maybe not snow dewpoint is just above zero and temp is 2.6c
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Getting mostly intense hail showers maybe some graupel mixed in there. Not much snow yet.
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5 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:
awful awful ECM again,apart from a short lived northerly at 120!
I wouldn't say it's awful still some cooler uppers in there still the possibility of Cold Zonality imo. Which depending on what happens can still bring Southern Areas in, I'd be happy there is a small chance there rather than standard Zonality.
Also you need to look at the trends of a run as a whole as Mike said rather than a single frame.
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WAA from the second low off the American Seaboard helping to promote the Azores ridge in towards Scandi?
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GFS considering a vacation from Greenland to Norway?
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2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:
UKMO did look okay at 96, but then 120 just wasn't what I expected to come next, hard to tell what happened with the 24 time jump
The weather outlook site has twelve hour intervals on the UKMO runs plus the 168hrs chart if that helps
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Well the war over how far south or north the Xmas low pressure will go continues to rage on
Looking at longer term developments below there is a few things to look out for.
Way out in FI and unlikely to come of but GFS exploring the Scandi route eventually, wonder if this is a trend we should look out for during into the first half of January.
In the meantime as mentioned in the other discussion stratospheric developments may also be something to keep an eye on as we go through the rest of winter. A displacement would seem within the realms of possibility and depending on where the vortex is displaced could have big consequences be it bad or good depending on your weather preference.
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5 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:
Just for fun, I am wondering how this run will progress with the Iberian height rises given we still have above average heights over Greenland.
You thinking WAA from the LP system and retrogression from Greenland sending height rises into Scandi?
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An improvement slight shift south would see parts of the Midlands and North/Mid Wales into contention.
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Maybe time to start looking at the period after Christmas? As long blocking stays strong there is the potential of a NE/Nly flow after the LP system runs through the UK will be looking for a similar evolution to the GEM.
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4 minutes ago, Sceptical said:
I see this threads been hijacked....
Think some of us are looking for non-biased posts as well and that's all I'll say hopefully the ECM in a while is good for everyone.
In the meantime GEM still looks good out to day 10 with strong blocking still over Greenland maybe we should look for longevity instead of this potentially fruitless pursuit for Christmas Day.
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1 minute ago, Ramp said:
What is the gem showing?
Not so great for Xmas Day/Boxing Day but thereafter the low moves east and allows a cooler flow
Ah @Kasim Awan beat me to it
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GEM this run with the low :
Gets there in the end though once the low moves east allowing NE winds.
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Yet again GFS overdoing the low 10mbs lower pressure a just 72 hours out compared to the UKMO
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Going for a N/NE at Day 10 with a Channel Low running across the South giving the goods for those complaining not sure about the moans with this run should give some snow to most people.
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8 minutes ago, TSNWK said:
Where have all the heights towards Greenland gone on this run? Something of concern?
The ridge behind the second low should sort that problem out if events were to transpire this way. Knowing the GFS though it'll just blow another low off the Eastern Seaboard.
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Just at 96 hours and the GFS already has the low 10mbs lower than the UKMO.
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5 minutes ago, Weather-history said:
If GFS 0z op run went like this then stuff Christmas
Look at the northern hemisphere chart going into the New Year.
I think people need to reign in their emotions and histrionics. If it isn't cold this Christmas, so be it. It is only one day.
Yeah this is the evolution I would much rather we had. Sliders galore and it even teased a low dropping from North to South. I mused to myself before the pub run last night and wondered if this solution would be on the table if we get an ridge behind this LP system later on.
Of course it wouldn't be Netweather without the pram throwing would it now
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Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by Summerstorm
Could do with that LP system pushing through instead of stalling off the East Coast of America through to the end of the run might get the AH ridge out of the way especially if we want a quicker evolution. As is always said the longer way is always riskier more things to go wrong
Although we get there in the end though.