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Summerstorm

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Posts posted by Summerstorm

    Model output discussion - into the last third of January

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Summerstorm

    8 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Stunning chart at 342 on the para, right in the heart of winter.

    Would make up for the near misses and long wait if this came off

     

    gfsnh-0-342 (2).png

    gfsnh-1-342.png

    Great chart would be even better if the high was slightly Futher north and tilted NW-SE instead to allow the Arctic air out over Siberia to sink into Scandinavia and over to us. As otherwise it drags milder air into eastern Europe from Georgia and the Black Sea. 

    Although it is unlikely to come off like that at that time frame so this is all academic at this stage. 

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Summerstorm

    20 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    UKMO sticking to its guns at 144

    Edit: GFS at the same time.

     

    UN144-21 (21).gif

    UN144-7 (2).gif

    gfsnh-0-144 (18).png

    gfsnh-1-144.png

    GFS not quite as good as the UKMO, looks good at 120 like the UKMO but then blows the low up and elongates the low in the mid Atlantic. Although it does have that similar little low over Italy which may become helpful if that strengthens to keep the AH out of Southern Europe. 

    It does drop the cooler air around +144 but the AH ridging back into S Europe stops the low from sinking and introduces milder air. 

    One thing to notice is can we eek out any extra amplification at +120 as seen on both runs to help us especially without blowing up that low pressure to the east of us and whether we can get a favourable angle from the low exiting the US to get some WAA to assist the Atlantic Ridge.

    gfs-0-120.thumb.png.58e269d9c1d77c34edf0c3a0244c3974.png

     

    Secondly the GFS P looks better doesn't blow that low up and in turn keeps some of the cooler -6 air in and brings in a nice slider around Day 7 although feels academic at that stage. 

    In my opinion follow the OP GFS up to 120/144 hrs then follow the Parallel from there. 

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1

    Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Summerstorm

    11 minutes ago, icykev said:

    GFS looks like the ridge may hold at +72 gfsnh-0-72.thumb.png.57601990d6b45ac5fc45376d7838d43e.png

     

    We aren't focused on that part of the run what we are focused on is the 120/144hr time mark what we are looking for is for the two lows not to phase and to avoid any shortwaves from the Eastern US and Scandi Low's. Therefore we maintain a better Atlantic Ridge this means that the Greenland high is stronger and thus hopefully pushes the pattern further south allowing cooler northerly air to drop down behind it. 

    Otherwise if we don't maintain that high or it doesn't get reinforced by the artic high then the jet stream gets forced further north again and we end up in a SW air stream as a consequence as the Azores High starts ridging into Iberia again. 

     

     

    Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Summerstorm

    Looks the Para is interested in throwing up another ridge around D11 which would be helpful to drain heights out of Iberia and Italy Although it's all a bit academic at that range unfortunately the LP on the eastern seaboard is too strong and the ridge collapses. But I am merely speculating at this point. Also looks like @Battleground Snow beat me to it 

    gfs-0-258.thumb.png.ba5174a22fe4754d7e0b43cf81a853f3.png

    • Thanks 1

    Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Paul

    The GEM at +144 looks pretty similar to the GFS except for the better ridge on the latter from the AH in the Atlantic keeping the two lows separated and creating some nice WAA up the eastern side of the low.  Overall the GFS looks better imo as can be seen from the charts being posted around Days 9-11 with some cooler air around -6/-8 in the mix. 

    gemeu-0-144.thumb.png.7bee6b9f778c9fc633de9d5b9442868d.pnggfseu-0-144.thumb.png.7999fb509b2b0a8632e648070bc075f7.png

     

    The other thing of note is the possible link of heights across eastern europe to the Arctic high on the GFS also wonder if that is something to keep an eye out for? 

     

    • Like 4

    Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Summerstorm

    7 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

    Classic west based negative NAO here. Infact gets a value of >50 which is a strong westerly based -NAO. Nonetheless, the cold arrival in the UK is still likely here eventually.

    image.thumb.png.76e77b9c735db743fb009ef0e47f6d6f.png

    Hopefully the Aleutian Ridge out in the Pacific will help and reinforce the Arctic/Greenland high if we can get sufficient WAA up the W of USA and push some of the colder air our way. 

    Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Summerstorm

    9 minutes ago, Hotspur62 said:

    Maybe elevation a factor re Madrid as it is 2200 ft asl?

    Yep that'll be a big factor plus they have a more continental climate than us and it is hundreds of miles in land so less mixing of the air from the milder sea from the Med or Atlantic also this is unlike what we have from the Irish and North sea as the farthest you can get from the sea here is only 70 miles.

    • Like 1

    Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by Summerstorm

    2 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

    Maps wouldn’t show me where

     

     

    Bit highlighted in red just a quick grab from Google Maps. A bit like Hants for Hampshire or Notts for Nottinghamshire to add a couple more examples.

    Anyway moving back to the topic still awaiting to see where this Wales cell heads seems to be moving at the speed of a snail. 

    Annotation 2020-08-11 210819.png

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