Summerstorm
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Posts posted by Summerstorm
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Finally got a proper shower here still not particularly heavy though but got a dusting now.
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GEFS looking pretty decent well over half of them showing Scandi Highs of some descriptions however the main takeaway is about 1 or 2 out of 30 support the horrow show of the GEM which is reassuring.
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6 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:
Gem at 144,
The 3 models are quite different at the moment, FI is very early right now..
After seeing this the UKMO looks ok to me that bowling ball is never going to give any WAA.
Current output certainly seems to be looking pretty negative currently in comparion to a couple of days ago. Although we'll see how the GEFS look and what the ECM comes up with later.
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Not making it this time we really need some shortwave energy sent south earlier to prop up that high and to cut it off from the remaining heights over Southern Europe.
Still a decent run though with some cold remaining but as @CreweCold we really need that feed of cold air now otherwise with high pressure over/ to the north of us the cold air in situ will quickly mix out as seen towards day 10
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UKMO is very progressive with the low compared to the GFS and means a weaker ridge that will likely collapse over the UK.
This is apparent as early as Day 4.
Despite the fact that the GFS has over egged the low by 10mbars it has a better tilt leading to much better WAA and a stronger ridge.
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15 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:
Gem at day 9! Look at that cold pool coming straight at us
Yep saw the chart at Day 6 and knew the Scandi High was coming as it was much further West than the GFS at that point.
As we know of course the GFS has a problem with being over progressive so maybe let's how much support it's evolution has in the GEFS.
Secondly the blocking over the Arctic and Northern Russia was better on the GEM which helps support the ridge as it goes up.
In the meantime the GFS fancies an excursion off to Greenland in FI fairly feasible evolution with MJO heading into Phase 8 in a couple of weeks. Although I would expect Retrogression from Scandi to be the more likely route to get there instead based upon current direction of travel.
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Reasonable support in the GEFS for the general pattern shown on the GEM up to Day 8/9 with the WAA through the UK.
What we need to focus on is enough forcing from the low to keep the ridge from sinking into Europe.
The best ensemble member is 30 and has a full blown Scandi High at +192
I would presume it delays dropping the PV into Canada therefore allowing extra time for a stronger ridge to set up. Therefore when the LP system gets ejected it gets stopped mid Atlantic and builds a ridge from the AH into the UK to support the Scandi High.
I believe this is what @nick sussex was taking about if we can delay the energy coming from the PV.
It gives us these extra opportunities for cleaner evolution instead of messing around with the more complex evolution from the GEM.
However maybe the more realistic option is plan B with the WAA on the eastern flank of the LP system.
I'm just musing currently so feel free to correct me I'm still learning too weather forecasts are a fickle beast
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4 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:
Well..... The GEM well and truly goes with this Scandinavian high idea.
The -12c isotherm pushing through EA and the South east at day 10 with even colder air set to push in. I honestly didn’t expect an operational to pick this up so quickly.
One little detail I noticed which is important is that lower pressure over Western Russia and the LP system heading in from the Atlantic stop the high from sinking into Central Europe.
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28 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:
Can you hazard a guess what would happen after 144 here?
Allow me to muse my thoughts on what might happen with my limited knowledge.
So as follows :
Secondary low to hopefully split off from the main one and slide under the ridge into Europe.
Firstly that would help to prop the Scandi Ridge up and stop any heights that build from sinking.
Secondly it would stop heights over Southern Europe from building and introducing mild air from the Med.
Then the best case scenario is the main low eventually goes under as the Scandi Ridge develops into a full blown high.
But if it doesn't then maybe we'd look for WAA to strengthen the potential Scandi High from an Atlantic Ridge or from the low colliding with the high pressure as seen on the GEM run.
Bare in mind this is all guess work and I could be completely wrong but if I am it will be a good learning experience.
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2 minutes ago, Had Worse said:
Yay, coloured snow. I'm not going out though as its yellow over my house.
Oh dear someone's taking the pee...
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2 minutes ago, Snowman. said:
Ice days still.
Wow.
Bare in mind that is for 6pm as it says 12 CST at the bottom.
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19 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:
It's very difficult to predict how the Pennine shield will behave. Based on what I am seeing regarding temperature, heights and duration, I would suggest 1-3cm between the M6 and the 100 metre Pennine contour, possibly 4-8cm if a trough or streamer/convergene sets up. Quite easily 10-20cm over and on the eastern flank of the Pennines.
Interested on what you are thinking for the south of the region I.e. Cheshire/Merseyside and into North East Wales out of interest?
Unsure on whether it would be better depending on the wind direction as we have less influence from the Pennines.
Finding your posts very informative by the way so thanks for that
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13 minutes ago, Weathizard said:
For me there’s nowhere near enough forcing from the north to make that go under, in someways we’d be better off with the LP just coming through and get another wedge to build in behind with such cold air nearby.
All the while that system sits out there slowly creeping east the chance of a reload of cold diminishes.
I would agree I feel like it's an all in or nothing it goes under or it doesn't. It's high risk Vs high rewards if we get it right.
If it goes under and the Scandi Wedge can move west then there's an even colder pool of air waiting.
On the other hand if it doesn't and sits there it just pumps mild air up as heights rise over Iberia.
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12 minutes ago, Weather-history said:
Some places in NW England actually did better with the BFTE than one or two places in the east, just ask reef about the BFTE.
Yeah I did pretty good down here with a few showers and a lot of light snow from that blizzard system in the South West as it just reached here and ended up with at least 10-15cm from the BFTE I think.
I'm not even at 100m either although admittedly I don't have the Pennines to contend with here so much if the wind direction is right.
Think you just need to get lucky with the showers and sometimes they may line up and give a lot others might get nothing. Hoping we can get something more organised though as the Atlantic tries to break through later next week for everyone.
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2 minutes ago, Andypvfc said:
What day, just so I know what day park my Taxi up
Just leave it on the ramp... just for fun at this stage of course just a mere 8 days away what could possibly go wrong
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4 minutes ago, Snowman. said:
GEM massive snow event
*blizzard alert* from the Midlands north about 24-32 hours of snow from that bad boy with 25-35 mph wind gusts.
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Something to keep an eye on is even colder upper air to our east on the GFS at +156 with -12/14 uppers making their way into Scotland.
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9 minutes ago, Snowman. said:
As you wish.
Ooh the scenes in here if that came off. Just a proper Greenie High with some polar lows dropping down from the north to go and then we've had a bit of everything right...
Not that I'm asking for too much of course
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4 minutes ago, Daniel said:
Hardly mild. South might be about to see its coldest uppers the whole run
Ah didn't look at that at first look it looked poor but we still have cold entrenched over us.
If we can get the high to push further north then maybe we can start to drag that cold pool in.
Although all academic at that range considering how fluid the situation is at the moment. Something to keep an eye for sure to see if It consistently pops up elsewhere.
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GFS trying to go for a Scandi High but a bit too far south and not a good orientation bringing in milder air from the Eastern Mediterranean.
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- Popular Post
Just now, Isleofwightsnowgal74 said:Please tell me the red blob isn’t heavy rain?
Right on the Isle of Wight! Ugh
No that's a dot showing his location on the map
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11 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:
The gem has improved on its 12z run and I think it will be superb by 168, but it's not as good as the GFS and ukmo early on, we still need to remain cautions. We are not there yet.
The most important part is that it connects the Atlantic Ridge to the Arctic High and introduces the blocking.
This then eventually forces the low south and by 162/168 we are into the cooler air.
Interestingly the GEM seems pretty interested in a Greenland High and looks to throw in a slider at Day 8.
I'd be happy with both evolutions although that slider looks to be heading south of the UK on the GEM.
On the other hand that GFS run looks very unstable and reeks of troughs a plenty hopefully bringing more organised areas of snow for more Central and West areas.
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1 hour ago, Stu_London said:
Here come the easterlies in the ensembles. Trend or one off.
Need to look out for a big upgrade in the De Bilt ensembles.
If the easterly signal strengthens in the next couple of runs - that will be good - that how all good easterlies have been modelled in the era of models being in the public domain.
Wouldn't be completed surprised if the signal gained some traction, fell apart and then came back stronger for a few days later. Seen that happen multiple times.
Yes but this is assuming we get an easterly from what I can see from a lot of the output currently a Greenland/Iceland high is a more common trend overall. Take the ECM and GFS OP runs this afternoon for example.
With only the extremely cold members within the GFS being easterly which are only a few of them. Maybe it will trend the other way but I think if we don't get the lows to trend favourably around Day 7/8 and begin to sink then I think the chances are that the Greenland route is slightly more favoured around Day 12/13 like shown on the ECM we instead end up with a wedge and then an Atlantic Ridge.
Maybe we'll get a retrogression to Scandi from Greenland or vice versa it's an interesting situation. Personally for me I think both Easterly's and Northerly's are good I've done well off both here.
Certainly a trend cooler throughout the EPS would be a good trend to have.
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Not much of interest within 10 days on the GFS however the GEM shows some interest with a possible Scandi High/Euro Ridge at Day 9/10 maybe an evolution to keep an eye on.
However there a lot of important features that need to go in our favour in particular the main low beginning to slide around Day 6. This helps to allow heights to rise over Scandi then secondly with the two main lows out in the Atlantic at Day 7/8 to favourably phase for us otherwise it will stop the heights over Northern Europe from being reinforced by the Azores RIdge through the UK.
Whether it is picking up on signals mentioned below and is factoring them in too early or not is yet to be seen.
There may be some other details I missed but I claim to be no expert at this. Just wondering If it is possible should certain elements go our way whether it is possible for some cooler weather sooner than we think. Especially with the La-Nina signal gradually weakening and the MJO starting to become more favourable. Especially Phase 6/7 tend to promote UK Ridges and Scandinavian heights.
May I muse that if we do get a Scandi High locked in is it possible that if the MJO transitions over to Phase 8/1 that into Mid February we may transition from Scandi High to Greenland/Griceland High whether it be from Atlantic Ridge or from retrogression of heights from Northern Europe.
Either way I'd say things look fairly favourable for us we just have to be patient in my opinion a bit like 2018 it took almost a month to reap the benefits it's only just over two weeks since the SSW happened.
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Model thread discussion - cold spell looming
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by Summerstorm
No sugar coating either of them but the GFS is still better and holds the Atlantic at bay at least it looks like on the UKMO it would blast through.
By Day 8 there is still some hope there trying to create a Scandi Ridge whilst looking towards Greenland too provided some energy from the bowling ball is cut off.
At this point looking for hope is not great considering some of the spectacular charts that were popping up a mere 36 hours ago. Shows how much can change within a short time period.