Summerstorm
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Posts posted by Summerstorm
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4 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:
its not strange,just not good.cold too far east no influence for us
It's strange because the other models show the low intensifying and heading gradually east. This one weakens just to the West of the UK leaving the other system on the other side of the Atlantic.
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UKMO 168 bit of a strange one..
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The only positive with this GFS run is the Greenland high still holding on despite the forcing from the LP systems in Atlantic/Scandanavia
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What I'm interested in if the low doesn't want to cooperate can we get an Atlantic ridge behind it? To attempt a northerly like shown on the pub run.
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Will do for now up to day 6 time for lowgate and will it get far enough south to stop the toy throwing
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2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:
Until 168 yes.
Will have to see what that chart shows later but that's what I was thinking. As long as the low begins to weaken it allows the colder air to sink in from the NE.
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3 minutes ago, Snowman. said:
As suspected horrendous. Opportunities later, but you miss Christmas.
For the sake of my stress levels I really wish it wasn’t happening during Christmas!!
So I see objectivity has gone out the window then as for some that looks fab. Also the colder air is dropping in behind it as the low moves S/SE anyway as you track it between 156-168hrs.
I wouldn't worry anyway as these lows have a habit of tracking further south than expected anyway
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1 minute ago, Frostbite1980 said:
Rain turning to snow in my eyes remember with a continental flow 850s are not as important.
Likely snow on the Northern edge of the low as it slides I'd guess.
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UKMO looks better than the GFS at +168 to be fair, need to see the uppers first but we should have chances here hopefully
edit : although uppers look pretty mild hopefully we cut off the southerly flow soon after the low moves through from the Atlantic and erodes the high pressure in southern Europe.
will have to see the GFS ensembles again to see if it has thrown another rogue run out I guess.
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Don't know about snow it's jaffa cakesing it down with rain here swear everyone else has some.
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On 26/11/2021 at 23:39, SP1986 said:
I wonder if N Wales has lost power because I can't see any lights there and I usually can... I'll have to check the road cameras.
Still got power here but seen some people in other parts of Wrexham say they've lost power though.
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On 26/11/2021 at 23:27, SP1986 said:
theres big power flashes over north wales way... ? what?
Yeah thought I could see some flashes but assumed I was seeing things. Wouldn't rule out a fallen tree doing some damage.
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Looks like our old friend Liverpool Airport weather station has been on the pints today
Seems to be consistently six to seven degrees warmer than Hawarden,Crosby and Rostherne/Manchester Airport
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3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:
It’s showing 34c on the netweather top 20….every other max station is between 30-31c. Think they need to buy a new one
Yeah definitely wrong the warmest around here is Hawarden at 28c then some other stations like Crosby and Rostherne are showing 26/27c . So I put that at about six degrees off don't see anything wrong there
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10 minutes ago, Howie said:
GFS bringing the trough up as early as Wednesday and turning very wet. Hope it's not right
It starts to lift out by Friday on the UKMO a little slower on the GFS but looks likely high pressure will build in again over the weekend after. To be honest if we have a couple of days of pain to help get a better pattern in place then I'm not complaining.
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ECM slap bang in the middle between the GFS and UKMO/GEM. Stronger ridge at Day 5 akin to the GFS means that the Atlantic doesn't come flying through. Not as good as the GFS but we'd have to see where we'd go from there.
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Seen a few flashes here and some deep long rumbles of thunder.
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Few rumbles here from a heavy shower passing over but not much to see. Some pretty heavy hail though across town
https://twitter.com/wrexham/status/1392515732961992706?s=19
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39 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:
The ECM ends with this...
...a possible northerly?
these northerly and easterlies keep on cropping up on the models,...will we get one last hit?
stay tuned.
Meh no thanks give me the less amplified solution from the Midnight run looks more likely to give the UK finer weather especially after all the wind and rain this week.
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27 minutes ago, iand61 said:
Well that just about sums up what I am thinking about this winter and I live in a white area.
the only surprise though is a lack of white across north Wales.
Yeah the showers really struggled to get over here and when they did then went West over the North Wales coast instead.
Think we did better last BFTE in the south of the region because of the trough going through and the temps being 1 or 2 degrees cooler overall made a big differences to melting.
Wonder whether the better direction is ESE for Wales and Cheshire instead as showers don't have to cross the Pennines. The obvious problem with that wind direction is the notorious rain shadow over Manchester.
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UKMO and ECM looking pretty similar at Day 5.
Slight differences regarding the lows the ECM has it further West but keeps the two lows phased where as the UKMO separates them.
Vis over Scandi the heights are slightly better on the UKMO but we are nit picking at this point.
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12 minutes ago, swebby said:
If you are looking at around the 22nd and the >10 uppers, then i think it is P14 and 18 - Unfortunately they might both big inversions based on 2m temps so potentially rather grey, cold and rubbish.
This is the run he's talking about from the midnight run
Very mild however I would prefer to wait till Mid-March to make the most of the warming sun.
As a contrast to keep everyone happy here is some something of a colder premise with the ingredients for a greenland high I essentially picked a decent one out the bag.
Highly doubt this is what it will look like come the 21st
But we shall see later whether these are the types of scenarios we should be looking for later on because the attempt at a Scandi High failed or whether maybe this would achievable by some form of retrogression from a Scandi Block we shall have to see with the MJO into phase 7 this could be possible and these are the permutations to look for should early attempts for scandi blocking fail. Look for a UK high to retrogress north.
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Hopefully I can catch part of that streamer as it gradually sinks south.
The thing with the 2018 beast was that we got a nice trough moving through that gave a decent area a good 5cm or so.
This time we don't have any which is a bit disappointing so we have to rely on getting lucky with showers and streamers. That's why it's a let down for a lot of us.
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1 minute ago, Backtrack said:
North Wales is getting hammered. Is this a joke? They skirt around us and blow up over wales...
Yeah I'm pi**ed off with that they're all going to the North of me
Model output discussion - Christmas approaches
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by Summerstorm
Have we found a similar period to the last decade if not then we have to look at the possibility that this may be how our winters are from now on.
Another possibility I would like to throw in is it possible that the relatively weak current and last solar cycles are having an impact too contrary to what we might believe.
It's an interesting topic which I will leave for now and will post this deep in FI chart from the GFS to get back on track with sliders galore. From the North and South.