John Cox

The Irish Met Office have just updated their Advisory warning: An upgrade me thinks: http://www.met.ie/nationalwarnings/default.asp

GFS 6am looks to be a small improvement to me. The low on Friday looks slightly further south. The snow on Friday still looks to become marginal later in the day and then on into Saturday but a slight change in the position of that low could make a big difference. The orientation of the low at the weekend and into Monday next looks better for keeping the cold going ( not quite as cold ) with possibly some further snow early next week. This will change by the day and will not become clear until probably Thursday. It makes facinating model watching. This could turn into an event similar to some of the snow in 2010 and January 1982. I remember January 1982 so well where it snowed for a continuous 36 hours. I know the chances of this happening are small but it remains a possibility. Fascinating times ahead for this week

The Irish Met service (Met.ie) has put out its 1st snow/ice warning: National Weather Warnings STATUS YELLOW Weather Advisory for Ireland Exceptionally cold weather is forecast for next week with significant wind chill and severe frosts. Disruptive snow showers are expected from Tuesday onwards, particularly in the east and southeast. Issued: Friday 23 February 2018 12:00 Valid: Friday 23 February 2018 12:07 to Friday 02 March 2018 12:00

You might be right. But in FI what we are looking for are trends and I am liking what i see. On a day to day basis of course beyond 7 days things will be different. At least we are not seeing mild south westerlies

When things don't work out as per GFS 18 i refer to this site. http://www.webbkameror.se/webbkameror/overtornea/overtornea_centrum.php It keeps me sane

These charts would surpass Dec 2010.

Ok, all this chopping and changing in the charts (compare 0600 to 1200) is that there is no resolution beyond 5th December. Look at the 0600 ensembles. So lets have some fun each 6 hours .... this morning .. Winter is over. This afternoon.. wayhay, lots of snow to come. Tonight the soap opera continues, but it iseven better here than the Soaps. There are no spoilers that can be read up on. Oh, the excitement

I for one am not worried about tonights charts. Still in FI but same result.

I think people need to remain very calm with the daily ups and downs from the charts of the last week. The charts don't seem as good as last night but I have a real feeling, from years of weather charts watching, that something very special is brewing. In fact I think we may need to take a little bit of disappointment tonight and maybe for a few days, to get a much improved bigger picture for the weeks ahead. These have been very special charts and I have not seen such, except Nov/Dec 2010. Just a feeling, but who know I may be proved wrong

Why not ask a Mod to create one. I asked for Dublin many years ago to be added and they obliged

Welcome to the forum. 30 years ago this was the normal but with Climate change I think starting times of Autumn and Winter seasons have moved forwarward by about a month.

Hi Paul. I am using IOS and subscribe to Radar Extra I love the App, well done. The only thing I see missing, from my point of view, is a "Latest" button. After having gone back to an earlier time it would be nice to have this button to jump straight back to latest time.

2nd and 3rd week is my middle half of January

There is agreement up to 11th December but after that toss a coin

Hi Tamara, I was just looking at those 4th Dec1962 charts and was thinking exactly the same as how similar to they are to the 4th Dec 2016. If ever we had a shot at a cold winter this is the one, fingers crossed

Here you go sea swim. I'm sure January Snowstorm won't mind me obliging. The Irish Met office forecasts heavily based on ECM, plus their own internal stuff. I find them very reliable and they rarely forecast beyond 5-7 days http://www.met.ie/forecasts/farm-commentary.asp

Snowing in Dublin 20

Count me in Paul

The late lamented GP is back with us. Happy days

Hi BFTP, A big fan of mine you are What ponders you about my quote? From what I have read, the strong El Nino threatens a colder Westerner European winter and the colder pool in the western Atlantic also might indicate a slowing down of the North Atlantic drift which could , at least, in the longer term give us colder winters. Perhaps, I have interpreted things incorrectly or just wishful thinking on my part

I concur. I really do think 2 weeks forward is all we can hope to forecast out to, with any degree of confidence. This will never change (At least for the moment ) What does excite us is the potential for the coming winter. There is the strong El Nino, the cooling of the North Atlantic. It is a long time , if I remember correctly, of High pressure being so dominant in October, and a very cold and snowy eastern Europen continent. So fingers crossed for a colder than normal winter.

Met Eireann quoting at 16:50 "with some passing hail, sleet and snow showers, with north and east facing coasts, most at risk of these." There is still some chance

I hope so, but Met Eireann does not seem to support it (At least for the East coast). Hope they are wrong.

Glad for all you guys and gals in the north of the country. You have had your fair share of snow showers for the last week and well deserved. We here in Dublin have not have much to talk about, We need an easterly (not very likely) and then the rest of the country is jealous

What a vast improvement in the GFS ensembles from last Sunday compared to today.