John Cox

At T126, the low over Iceland has moved further west and the high has built over Scandanavia. This is real progress for extending this cold spell

This a huge turnaround. The GFS has now reverted to what the ECM was at its best a few days ago.

The ECM will be following GFS at this rate.... A much improved run with the low sinking further south and high pressure building much better further west.

Sorry Steve jumping in on this question:) Simon Keeling thinks so, especially in this set up. http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php

Hi Mike, Yes ,still lots to verify, but after the last few runs of the GFS I really thought that the other models would back down. They have back tracked, say 1 step, but this run, from the GFS, has moved forwards 3 steps. Maybe they will all move forward together over the next run or 2 and converge to give us a more definitive picture over the the next day or so as to where we might be this time next week. Fingers and legs crossed at this exciting time.

I dont think we could have hoped for more from the GFS. It is trying to change towards the colder outlook of the other models without us noticying. Very sly attitude:) and it will not go unticed from all on NW

In 1987 i used to have to wait for the UK Fax charts to be posted to be my mail from Bracknell to Dublin and by the time I received them the weather had already happened. This is much more exciting

It has been for the last few runs, so odds on, it is again.....Hopefully

I think its gone mad. I dont remember seeing it as an outlier for most of the full length of the run for so many runs in a row.

The irish met office have changed their forecast from am 8th Jan: "there is a possibility of cloudy, milder weather again moving in from the Atlantic during Sunday and Sunday night bringing temperatures back up to between 8 and 12 degrees for next week with some wet and windy spells likely. " to: "At the moment Sunday night and the early days of next week brings the threat of more significant snow to places and it will feel very cold with the winds strengthening" This is very encouraging Just noticed your similar post "The Eagle" . Yes they have changed it in line with the ECM coming on board.

I will be watching very closely. As they mainly use the ECM then we would expect that

Yes, This mornings 7.55am forecast from "Met Eireann" certainly is not going for cold, I have kept a copy of it to see if it verifies. "There will be frost and icy patches Friday night and Saturday night but there is a possibility of cloudy, milder weather again moving in from the Atlantic during Sunday and Sunday night bringing temperatures back up to between 8 and 12 degrees for next week with some wet and windy spells likely."

I can understand the euphoria tonight,...I can understand the caution.... especially from our more experienced members..... We have been badly bitten so often by these synoptics before and let down with a bang...... but There is something different this time.... SSW??...... Will this be the key to a memorable winter.... I have a lot of patience and hopefully it will pay off. If it goes the shape of the pear (which i think is unlikely), 60/40 is my guess of success, then i get a lot of pleasure from these sites: http://www.webbkamer...nea_centrum.php http://www.webbkamer...jala_2_live.php http://www.webbkamer...olgsjovagen.php

From an older poster..... You, and I, and most others, know where you are coming from.... thats all that matters... Theres always the minority !!

Agreed, For January and February this is what we need if we can get a good easterly flow. I know most will say that it is miles away and bears no hope in the short to medium term but this is where classic winters come from.

If you are right Matty, I will be following you rather than Met Eireann.... Keep up your great posts

Hi Matty, I would love to see this evolving but just don't see it happening with the GFS and ECM charts in the short to medium term. However, with such a cold pool building over mainland Europe, I think it is just a question of time before this moves west. It may take the New Year and it may well be only the UK that gets it but I would be hopeful that it will indeed happen.

By the way Ian.... I said I would get back to you if our Met Office got it wrong with regards to the cold and snow this week.... They did

Hi Somerset squall, Its better chasing something that might happen in FI than expecting something great in the short term that dosent happen

They have back tracked.... Traitors.... Wont trust them again "However, the forecaster said at the moment it appeared unlikely there would be any "large snowfalls" but there may be a chance of snowfalls on higher grounds near the east and north coast early next week."

See this thread is going to be very popular....NOT Ok, my moan. I think the charts are great. I really do and I wish everyone would stop moaning about how bad they are. Look at FI on GFS a lovely reload of cold at the end Our Met guys in Ireland and I stated that this morning say : "This means northern and eastern counties will come under threat of snow showers which may lead to accumulations, even at lower levels. However, the rest of the country will stay mainly dry with clear spells." Like your UKMet office. I really think they can see things and have access to info that us ordinary weather mortals dont have access to.

You may be right Ian, but our Met guys tend to get it fairly accurate out to 7 days and rarely mention snow unless they are fairly confident. I will report back this time next week as to their accuracy ... or not

Hi Matty, Our Irish Met office this morning don't seem to agree with the GFS: "During the middle and later part of next week, northeast to north breezes will freshen. This means northern and eastern counties will come under threat of snow showers which may lead to accumulations, even at lower levels. However, the rest of the country will stay mainly dry with clear spells."

"Sleety" states: "Obviously not overly impressed with the latest runs I suppose,dont know why as the ecm run is awesome the 2nd best run it has churned out after that 60MPH blizzards chart it showed a few days ago" Yes, It is strange. GFS seems to be the order of the day generally on the forum. However here in Ireland our met office seem to generally to use the ECM. Our Met office will not forecast beyond 7 days so I will be listening intently in the coming days. FI is really very exciting from a cold point of view.

I think they have said all they can at this stage. FI begins at 10th December and any outcome is possible after that . One thing seems certain, the cold theme continues but the extent to where the high positions itself is anyone's guess.