John Cox

Hi, This may have been asked before but I cannot find the answer on the learning part of the forum: What is the difference between the control run and the operational run and which is the most accurate , if either may be the case? I do understand the concept of the ensembels and the different perturbations etc.

Heavy rain

Yes, I think it is.

Heavy snow continuing, Thought it would pass quickly but still intensifying on the radar. Now sticking on the roads.

Snowing heavy in Dublin. Only sticking on grass.

1st snow shower of the day (and winter) here in Dublin

Well spotted and exactly my thoughts. I thought i was seeing things. Would be great for Ireland (MBY ) and NW parts of England (Snow wise)

In the "Calm" conditions I suppose this is to be expected.

Beefing up a bit in the midlands. -.1C Dewpoint -2.6. It will snow in my part of Dublin if these temps dont rise. Fingers crossed.

I'm not too optimistic for Dublin, the irish sea will probably exert its influence and give us rain or sleet tomorrow night, but fingers crossed

.6C here in Dublin

Agreed. If we had the same amount of correction each day whilst the cold spell lasts then perhaps the Atlantic will not win out. A lot to be optimist with tonights GFS charts

A little bit more respect to Frosty please , one of our veterans, not agewise:) and one great poster.

Welcome Steve, With over 30 years of charts and data studies I'm sure you will be a become a valued contributor to the forum.

Good to see you on the forum so early in the Autumn/Winter season. I hope this is a good omen for a cold one

We had at least a million snowflakes last week. The result was a light covering on my car and a dusting on the grass

I envy you Carinthian.

Big improvement at T159. Low moving further into southern Europe. 18z 12z

Sausage low in the Atlantic rather than round. A good sign

Slight improvement at t84. Atlantic low tilting slightly more west and south easterly more pronounced over Iceland.

.....and just so people are not feeling too downhearted. This forecast from our Irish met office today: "The general outlook for next week is for an easterly airflow to become established over Ireland. Many areas having mainly dry weather but some wintry showers likely at times in the south, east and northeast. Rather cold with highs of about 4 to 7 degrees in moderate to fresh mainly easterly winds. Night frosts in areas sheltered from the wind."

For anyone interested in the full report for winter in Ireland 1962-1963, here it is. Winter of 1962 1963.doc

A bit off top Mods. Feel free to move or delete I came across this extract from a summary of the weather in Ireland for the 1st half of December 1962. The lesson to be learned is that a lot can happen in 2 weeks. We should never give up hope. "1st – 17th December 1962: The opening days of December 1962 started calm and relatively mild, if foggy at times. By the end of the first week, however, it became increasingly stormy and wet with only the occasional brief incursion of cooler Polar air-masses which are normal in a typically active December. Mean temperatures for the period were near normal overall with winds mainly from south-west or west." Two weeks later we had this: Doc2.doc 18th – 24th December 1962: The 18th of December 1962 was a typically bright, fresh and breezy day with a few light showers drifting onto the west and north coasts. Unbeknownst to the nation however, a dramatic rise in mean sea level pressure (MSLP) over the cold plains of western Russia was being observed as an Arctic ridge of High Pressure began to extend down into North-Eastern Europe and by the 20th, MSLP values reached over 1030hPa in these regions However, Ireland continued to enjoy its usual Atlantic weather with occasional bands of rain and showers crossing over in south-west to west winds which were quite fresh at times. Temperatures on the 20th rose above 10.0c with 11.7c being the max reading at Valentia Observatory, Co. Kerry; while MSLP values averaged around 1005mb over the country. By evening, pressure began to rise from the south as a ridge moved in from the south-west. By the next morning, that is, the 21st, MSLP values had risen to over 1020.0hPa as this intensifying ridge, which was an extension of the semi-permanent sub-tropical Atlantic Anticyclone known as the ‘Azores High’, moved ever closer towards Ireland from the south-west. Meanwhile, the Arctic ridge over north-east Europe continued to intensify enough for it to become a separate anticyclone. By the 22nd, surface pressure values in Eastern Europe had begun to rise markedly as the Anticyclone over western Russia began to slip further south whilst continuing to intensify. Meanwhile, the Azores ridge continued to build while surging north-eastwards to eventually amalgamate itself with the high pressure zone in Eastern Europe by the 23rd. Winds at this stage had backed to the SE over Ireland bringing in cooler, drier air from the near continent. Temperatures were beginning to drop and by the 24th, mean maxima hovered between 3c to 7c, with night-time frosts. Meanwhile, over Europe, cold air from Russia was being fed westwards by the intense anticyclone that had developed in eastern Europe and as a result, snow and freezing temperatures became a problem over parts of the continent. In France, 10 people died on Christmas day alone due to the intense cold while heavy snow caused much disruption for both locals and tourists in Perthus, close to the Spanish border. In Portugal, temperatures fell as low as -15.0c by night which barely rose above freezing by day. Switzerland was virtually cut off while it was noted that ice was forming in some coastal inlets around the Danish coast.

Eight days out. I will take this gladly... Considering 7 days is my normal accuracy max time. I know this is in my FI timescale

The improvement continues in FI over 12z The Hi pressure is further north