John Cox
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Model Output Discussion - 18z - 25th Nov onward
John Cox replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Thanks London-snow Yes, you are correct when it comes to us here in the west. I am jealous of you guys/gals in the SE of the UK. The continental influence is with you and as you say, very interesting cold/mild battlegrounds might occur with subsequent snowfall for your areas. I hope you are right about the return of the cold generally -
Model Output Discussion - 18z - 25th Nov onward
John Cox replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Thanks musicman2000 for that additional info. Fingers crossed a reload of cold but the latest ECM is not encouraging at the moment after Saturday -
Model Output Discussion - 18z - 25th Nov onward
John Cox replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Our Met office here in Ireland use the ECMF as far as i know and this is part of their forecast this morning "There is a gradual return to milder weather next weekend as temperatures climb towards more normal values of 9 or 10 degrees." I find our met guys are rarely wrong so, although I wish it was otherwise, I'm afraid a breakdown of the cold spell looks on for the weekend and after that does not look great from their charts. Hope they and I are wrong. -
Model Output Discussion 18/11/2012 12Z onwards
John Cox replied to chionomaniac's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I’ve been through so many winters in the 90's and noughties and the synoptics we are seeing now are certainly encouraging. For so many winters we had low pressure’s continuously barreling in to Ireland and the UK from SW to NE relentlessly. Add to this, the very cold summer and autumn of this year and the winter of 2010 (Early and Late), let’s just say, a little patience is called for and hopefully December will start to produce the winter that us cold lovers want. PS, Just seen Glacier Points post. Follow him and Steve Murray and all the regular experienced posters (of course not excluding my real favorite John Holmes) and you shall be guided well. -
Vantage Pro 1 (wireless).faulty Thermometer Sensor.
John Cox replied to John Cox's topic in Weather stations and equipment
Thanks cm2weather Sorry for not acknowledging your reply sooner. I think your advice is as good as it gets and will indeed keep a watchful eye out for a 2nd hand full station in ebay or the likes. I will report if I am sucessful. Cheers, John -
Hi, I am in need of a replacement thermometer sensor for my Vantage Pro 1 (Wireless). I have had the Vantage Pro 1 since 2003. Unfortunately my station is giving out a faulty thermometer reading, up to 4C higher than the correct reading. It is erratic, so even setting a compensation does not work. There is no new replacement unit available on the market as it is now obselete. I was just wondering if any member may have an old VP1 (Wireless) that they have replaced with a newer model and they have it lying around unused. I only need the thermometer sensor part of the station. I would be perpared to pay for the unit and P&P but feel hard pushed to buy a new station as the rest of the station is working grand. Any help woluld be really appreciated, even direction as to where i might source a 2nd hand unit. Cheers, John
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Hi Kippure, Might pay a visit in the morning, In Canada? You dont need the Dublin mountains anymore
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London & The South East Regional Discussion - Part 8
John Cox replied to kold weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Good luck to all my netweather weather friends in SE of UK, Enjoy the snow you deserve it -
Model Discussion Thread - 15th Jan
John Cox replied to kold weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
7pm, but does not show on NW until fully finished -
Model Output Discussion - 19th - 25th December
John Cox replied to reef's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I certainly remember the charts of early Jan 1982 and it was only possible to see about 3 days ahead at the time and no weather nurds like me to exchange views on forums. The sudden change then and the mystery of not knowing too far ahead made the end result all the more exciting. I do miss those days. -
Staggering Duration Of This Cold Spell.
John Cox replied to Osbourne One-Nil's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
I think another measure of this cold spell for you guys in the UK is how cold a spell we have had here in the Rep. of Ireland (John H has already eluded to this a few days ago) You over there can get lots of very cold weather but we dont as a rule. Perhaps some NAD slowing down This spell that began on Friday week last has been exceptional here on the East coast. 11 days of lying snow, regular snow falls, ice days, and packed ice. This was on par with Jan 2010 but had more extremes. My joke to my wife is : Its January and at least the winter is almost over. -
Snowing heavy here in Dublin, not sticking. Temp 1.7C I have never seen such a day at this time of the year. It has been snowing nearly all day here. Winds picking up with wind chill of -3C Global warming??? Duh!!!
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Plenty of snow reported around the Dublin this morning. Continuous light/moderate snow but only sticking on cars and grass. The temperature was 10C late last night but 1C this morning
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Plenty of snow reported around the Dublin this morning. Continuous light/moderate snow but only sticking on cars and grass. Temp 1C
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Earlier sleet turned to snow about an hour ago and we now have 1-2 cm of lying snow everywhere here in Dublin.
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Hi The Eagle, I have been watching every 6 hourly run and the easterly keeps appearing, if not on every run , but it fails to go away.
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The strange thing is Steve is that the 8th Feb has been highlighted by GFS for the past 10 days as the beginning of an easterly, It has appeared and then disappeared for a while and now is back again and by other models. I think we may be on the cusp of something special. Fingers crossed.
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Absolutely agree, I will stick my neck out. I have been watching every 6 hourly updates every winter and particularly this winter and I observe the following: - Extremely cold pool to the east. Have not seen one like it in years. - The synoptics and delivery in January. Have not seen one like it in years. - Current synoptics showing constant migration from E to W or W to E of high pressure. Have not seen one like it in years. A long time on here and have plenty of patience (just for the newbies).
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The 2m min temps ensembles for Dublin look great to me and the operational run is bang in the middle and with the scatter quite close, even in the FI range. I think things look really good and don't think members need to be despondent.
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General Model Output Discussion:
John Cox replied to Methuselah's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Hi Johncool. About a 70% chance of some snow in Dublin on Saturday according to GFS, realistically I would say about 30% chance. It will be very cold for the weekend. I would look to 8th Feb or around that time for a really cold chance with easterlies. This is a punt at the moment, but a gut instinct based on the GFS and ECM and others commenting here. Keep a close eye out for further developments and updates as time goes on. -
Hi smdcuk. I agree with you. I dont post often ,but I agree with you ( sorry JS) but he does change his mind from run to run. I look here at first before I post and then I wait 24 hours looking at this site, before I form an opinion and then some more. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample_C.shtml?text=EIDW
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Hi snowmadchrisuk I agree with you. But... You have to see it from JS's point of view. Cork, in Ireland is really hard to get snow. I would prefer to be in London x 4 compared to Cork with regards to getting snow. He (forgive me JS if I am wrong) will look to all models for any sign for a snow opportunity. (Me too)