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Everything posted by Ross90
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Storm Eunice - 18th February
Ross90 replied to Thunder and Lightning's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
I can see your point re it deserving more coverage but I think it's the South east bias on here and often on the news coverage of storms that irritates some people. I'm pretty sure most northern members on here would agree that if Eunice was forecast to hit north of Manchester then it would definitely not have 25 + pages. I wasn't on here in 2011/12 but there were two storms of similar strength to Eunice which mostly affected the north of England, NI and Scotland. I'd hazard a guess that those got nowhere near as much attention on here. -
Scotland Weather discussion
Ross90 replied to Paul's topic in Scotland / Alba Community Group's Scottish Weather Discussion
A slight breeze here but as yet nothing above about 35mph, i'm going to call it now and say NL and in fact probably most of Strathclyde should not have had an amber warning for this. Even Arwen was stronger down here... -
Scotland Weather discussion
Ross90 replied to Paul's topic in Scotland / Alba Community Group's Scottish Weather Discussion
Almost 0 wind here but quite frequent and persistent heavy rain. Met suggesting 50mph gusts in about an hour... looks unlikely. -
Storm Eunice - 18th February
Ross90 replied to Thunder and Lightning's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
It's a fairly narrow strip but still bigger than a tornado, it can be in the 10s of miles wide. I experienced one and it almost doubled the wind gusts for about 30 - 40 minutes. It ends very abruptly too. It went from frequent 80 - 90 mph gusts to almost complete calm in about 20 minutes. -
Storm Eunice - 18th February
Ross90 replied to Thunder and Lightning's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
My assumption has always been that while it's partly based on impacts there is some sort of wind speed that triggers each warning. For populated areas it seems to be 50 - 65 mph for yellow, 65 - 80 mph for amber and 80 + for red. For very sparsely populated areas maybe add 10 mph to those. -
Storm Dudley - Weds 16th and Thurs 17th
Ross90 replied to Summer Sun's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Slight upgrade for central Scotland bringing 50 - 55mph gusts through the central belt between 3pm and 5pm. Bbc are still going for similar on Sunday while the met are going much weaker... -
Storm Eunice - 18th February
Ross90 replied to Thunder and Lightning's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Why are the models struggling so badly with this? At 7 or 10 days it's to be expected but at less than 3 days it could still go anywhere or not even exist... it seems like the further away the weather gets from the seasonal norm the more hopeless the models become. -
Storm Dudley - Weds 16th and Thurs 17th
Ross90 replied to Summer Sun's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
If the mets forecast wind speeds are correct that's a joke of a decision. It won't even be the strongest storm in Scotland this winter, in fact it might not even be top 3... -
Storm Eunice - 18th February
Ross90 replied to Thunder and Lightning's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
The start of the downgrades possibly... Dudley started downgrading at around this timeframe. -
Storm Eunice - 18th February
Ross90 replied to Thunder and Lightning's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Roof damage as in lost tiles or sheets as some houses on this street still have metal roofs. I didn't see any houses that had been left exposed because of roof damage. -
Storm Eunice - 18th February
Ross90 replied to Thunder and Lightning's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
It was during the sting jet associated with the Jan 3rd 2012 storm. I didn't measure it but local stations were into the 90s, a couple into the 100s. It's one of only 2 red wind warnings I can remember in this area. A fair bit of roof damage but actual structural damage was minimal. I'm pretty sure mainland houses are all built to a similar standard. I'm in the greater Glasgow area so not away up in the highlands... -
Storm Eunice - 18th February
Ross90 replied to Thunder and Lightning's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
My house has experienced 90mph with no damage, i even have those old metal sheet roofs and it still didn't blow off 70 - 80 might take a few tiles off and blow some fences over but if it's doing extensive damage then the house wasn't built very well... -
Storm Eunice - 18th February
Ross90 replied to Thunder and Lightning's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
I think some people are exaggerating the severity a little bit. Yes 90mph + would be quite damaging but it's much more likely that gusts will peak around 70 - 80mph inland if that. It might be unusual for some places but you're not going to suffer severe damage from winds in that range, well not unless a tree hits your property... -
Storm Dudley - Weds 16th and Thurs 17th
Ross90 replied to Summer Sun's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Dudley is likely to affect Manchester, Liverpool and possibly down beyond the midlands so well over 5m. Eunice is affecting the southern third of the UK. -
Storm Dudley - Weds 16th and Thurs 17th
Ross90 replied to Summer Sun's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Storm Dudley - 18 replies, storm Eunice - 202 replies... I wonder which one is affecting the south. -
Storm Eunice - 18th February
Ross90 replied to Thunder and Lightning's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
The fact that Dudley has become a bit of a dud with pretty significant downgrades less than 48 hrs out is probably a sign of things to come. This one will end up being 80mph along the coast and 50 - 60 inland in my opinion. -
Scotland Weather discussion
Ross90 replied to Paul's topic in Scotland / Alba Community Group's Scottish Weather Discussion
I'm starting to think getting nationwide stormy spells are becoming less and less likely. Maybe it's the poles becoming milder meaning the temp differences just aren't there. The jet is as strong as it has been in some time and basically pointing straight at us but there's still nothing decent. The forecast looks to have been pretty poor for this one too, usually they get watered down 3 or 4 days out but this one it was less than 48 hours. The amber warning came out far too early imo. No idea why it still hasn't been removed either, none of the models are suggesting amber worthy wind speeds. -
Storm Dudley - Weds 16th and Thurs 17th
Ross90 replied to Summer Sun's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
The met have downgraded it quite a bit through the central belt, not even reaching 50mph now. If that's accurate then the amber warning will likely shrink or be removed completely... -
Storm Eunice - 18th February
Ross90 replied to Thunder and Lightning's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Jan 3rd 2012 was the strongest winds i've experienced (90 mph for about 40 minutes). If it is that bad even for a short time there will be damage especially to roof tiles and metal sheet roofs. Plenty of damaged trees and fences down too. -
Storm Dudley - Weds 16th and Thurs 17th
Ross90 replied to Summer Sun's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
It has upgraded slightly over the last couple of days with 3am on Thurs looking like the peak with around 70mph through the central belt but most places could see 12 hrs plus of 50mph. The beeb and met are still sticking with mid 50s as the highest gusts which would put it in line with the last couple of storms here. -
Scotland Weather discussion
Ross90 replied to Paul's topic in Scotland / Alba Community Group's Scottish Weather Discussion
Weds looks like it's being upgraded if anything. Possibly 70mph quite widely and 80+ across the north. It looks like an unusually long lasting stormy spell too. Even the bbc which is at the more conservative end has 50mph + gusts for me for every hour between 4pm on weds and 9am on Thurs. -
Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February
Ross90 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Storms much like snow events always downgrade nearer the time, chances are it'll be more like 70mph and 200 miles further north. -
3 years ago Feb was quite stormy up here. 2 years ago it was pretty benign from what I remember, last year was cold and snowy and this year has been quite wet and consistently windy. I would say it has become more changeable but there's no real trend at least in the short term. The more noticeably changed months for me are Sept and Nov. Nov has become increasingly calm and often spring like with quite a few extended periods of either cloudy, mild dry days or cool clear days. Sept has definitely become warmer and drier, in recent years there seems to be very little difference between August and September.
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Storm Eunice - 18th February
Ross90 replied to Thunder and Lightning's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Weds looks more likely, yellow warnings out already and likely to be amber in some places if it doesn't get downgraded. -
Scotland Weather discussion
Ross90 replied to Paul's topic in Scotland / Alba Community Group's Scottish Weather Discussion
Weds looks interesting, if there aren't any downgrades the yellow windy warnings will be out.