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Jemma Croton

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    Model output discussion 24/01/21

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Jemma Croton
    Mistypes

    Hello guys,

    Wondering if you might help? Not about a specific output but I believe still quantifies as model discussion. 
     

    I don’t post here all that much but am autistic with winter weather as an SI. Like many of you, I’m on the models multiple times a day this time of year and putting hours into poring over days etc.

    I’n very lucky that I seem to usually back the right horse so to speak. I’ve had a good run for a number of years at calling which events will be snow and which will be a wash out etc. I’m used to being fairly accurate.

    I can’t even now cats this year with the radar and get it right. Almost every event, it just isn’t going at all as expected. It will randomly dissipate about 5 miles away and turn to nothing etc. I’ve never seen this happen before. It seems EVERYONE is finding this hard to get right at the moment.

    Anyway, it’s getting to me now and I feel like my one good thing has disappeared etc. Can anyone just simply explain why this set up is so challenging for everyone to forecast accurately etc?

    I look up to you guys so genuinely, hearing a reason as to why will hopefully halt how totally demotivated I am from none of what I expect (even as a nowcast) actually coming to transpire. 
     

    It may sound silly but I get so much confidence from knowing I’m good at the few things I have an SI in and between the virus, home schooling and my darling children finding this all very hard right now etc... this failing of mine is hitting me so hard and I’m kinda crumbling. This genuinely will help me a lot so I appreciate replies. 
     

    Sorry if this is wrong place. I never want to post in the wrong forum etc but this fits as model discussion to my brain... just on a larger, generalised scale etc. 

    Thanks guys and, as always, thank you for all your posts because this place and you lot (plus time and experience) is how I learned this stuff.

    • Like 13
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    South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/09/2020 Onward

    in Regional

    Posted

    We’ve had some fall in Swindon but literally only enough that I can see a slightly paler path than usual and maybe .5cm on the top of fences etc. Poor show.

    Also, I’m currently helping a local feral cat. Couple weeks before Christmas I found he was sneaking in my window at night (windows open all year in my bedroom because I have brittle asthma and the airflow helps at night) and setting off my asthma. We’ve made him a waterproofed outdoor bed (enclosed box waterproofed with bags hot glued to it to keep wet out and filled with straw) and trying to build some kind of friendship so I can get close enough to try and grab and get to a vets for scanning and a check over etc. Anyway, I took the mesh screens off my windows last night because I feel so bad about this cat who hates humans but gets so desperate for warmth he comes in my bedroom window at night. 
     

    so now there’s hardly any snow today AND I can’t breathe. Good one Jemma.

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    Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Aren’t we all used to this by now though? Models seem to flip back and forth for a few days when colder weather is upon us. I’ve lost count of the amount of times we’ve had a snow event show, then we have what seems to be a day of downgrades with everyone upset, only to them flip back overnight etc. Not every time but this is part of the process I expect now (I’m autistic, I need to be able to anticipate things) and even happens after a massive split SSW. Haven’t most of us been around at this now long enough to know there are always bumps in the road? Of course, we all know the pain of things truly downgrading and not coming to pass at all. We’ve all been stung by that one. So emotions run super high. 
     

    To me, I still see a most exciting period of weather coming up. It just feels different somehow but that’s now scientific.

    I’ll finish with this. I have learned a lot here. First as a long time lurker and then a member. I learn as much from the opposing views as I do from the popular view. People often comment, worried it will put off new members when people argue etc but actually for me it was always helpful... and a good reminder of how fragile and delicate this hobby is.

     

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    Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Been back and following the model discussion and charts with all fellow cold hunters since October but haven’t posted this season yet.

    Shame for my first post of the season to be a moan but so be it. It’s just SUCH an annoyance when you have cross model agreement for so many days of runs showing promise only for it to all slip away. 10+ years of doing this every darn winter and you’d expect to be used to it but it’s no less gutting every time. It’s hard even to get excited, outside of a major split SSW, for a decent snow event when it seems almost every one slowly slips away.

    I’ll still do it, of course I will. But today I’ll moan.

    It’s nice to be back doing this with you lot even with such disappointments.

     

    SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

    in Regional

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, pinball wizard said:

    Understandable, I volunteer at a special needs school and know they can have sensitivities to things like that. That said, i'm not overly keen on snow falling on my face either, love to watch it falling and love to go outside in it once it's stopped though

     

    My son in particular really struggles. Especially after Feb last year we went out and the snow started up again and felt like hail pellets stinging your face... so now he thinks snow will hurt. Bless him. 

    Luckily though with it looking likely to continue this afternoon and hopefully little chance of thawing overnight they get to play in it tomorrow 

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