[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

42 minutes ago, Bring Back1962-63 said:

http://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/satellite.php?mode=animation-infrarouge-colorise

      

A few of you are still misinterpreting these charts   The vast majority of our blizzard will not move up from France and Biscay - it will develop rapidly much closer to home in the Channel as the flow engages with our dense cold block and tries to under cut it but rises over it. So watch both the infra red satellite as well as the radar. In about an hour to two hours (1630 to 1730) there will some mind boggling developments.  David

 

EDIT:  @divadee   Definitley and the red warning area should be expanded very soon  

Where would you extend it?

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This from my “husband” at the MetO ?

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2 hours ago, Climate_Eyes said:

Jemma, I am awarding your dog cutest snow poser! That fluff though!

 

Sky to my SW has got a bit darker. Maybe a tad too far east.

I’ve deliberately not had him trimmed so he would stay warm and he had ice balls hanging from his under-belly

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3 minutes ago, Jemma Croton said:

 

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1 hour ago, s4lancia said:

You are obviously more hardened up there.

Virtually all the schools in my area announced in advance (yesterday afternoon) that they were closing today and tomorrow.

Not here. I got a talking to from the head for suggesting school might be cancelled.

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Just defrosted the sledge which had 7cm thick ice filling it. School closing early x

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Think we may have a red before this kicks in. Oh my gosh. After waiting all week seeing snow everywhere else our payday is finally coming

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Swindon tomorrow. I am EXCITED!!

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

31 minutes ago, jtay said:

The Met Man mentions freezing rain, but only for the far SW on Friday. Here's the latest forecast --> https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

What I wouldn’t do to Aiden McGivern ????????

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

Bear in mind I word this for the weather ignorant 

 

I know, I know, ANOTHER weather post.

I really want to hone in a little bit away from the showers today and tomorrow and onto the front coming up from the south Thurs/Fri.

It’s important I think to talk about this because there is a very rare and hazardous potential in the far SW with this front.

The track of this low is still not completely clear but what we do know is that the low will come in land and, because it’s a low, it will bring heavy precipitation that will, at least initially, fall as snow. Potentially very heavy snow and blizzards. 

This low is tricky right now and the reason is because it’s bringing milder air which will come up against that block and no model seems to have a footing as to how quickly that mild air might mix out the cold. Letting rain fall and the low to head further north... or will it hit the cold and stall giving even heavier accumulations. Quite literally every model is giving a different track and progression so it is tricky to forecast and it will continue to be more of a nowcasting event.

What this brings, aside from the snow, gales and potential blizzards is something called freezing rain. It’s rare in the U.K. so no surprises if you wonder what the heck that is. It is a VERY hazardous weather where the precipitation falls as rain BUT immediately freezes on impact on any surface. Like literally immediately. 

This alone is hazardous enough but this front is going to be a snow to rain event if rain does fall so what *could* happen if this occurs is we have heavy snow fall and, at the time of day this is looking to hit it will be snow that is disturbed by daytime movements. Crunched by footsteps and mushed by cars etc. If (IF) this does then give way to freezing rain we could have ice forming on top of that deep, disturbed snow and really that is a recipe for disaster.

This is mostly likely to happen (if it does) in a sort of area if you draw a line from Bristol to Brighton, anything below that. That’s a lot of rural areas etc. Freezing rain can also damage power lines and trees etc because of the weight of the ice on these structures.

I really hate to have to post out about a hazard when things are still so unclear but it’s unlikely we will get firm clarity until this event is upon us and, with the MetO now mentioning it their forecast it’s looking more like a real possibility than the “shit, this looks like it could give freezing rain... can you imagine” talk in weather communities the past few days.

The track of the low can change but it will come up from the S/SW on Thurs/Fri and has a warning in place because of the hazards involved. Please stay close to MetO forecasts and remember to check regularly as they are constantly updated in events like this. I will post again as we get closer.

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3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Just need shuffle that tick up a couple of boxes. Thanks for the info.

I actually think it will get there if freezing rain stays a possibility. Let me copy a post I put out on FB

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13 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Snowing in Mudeford 

Jealous. I love Mudeford.

Heres the MetO amber warning updated I posted in the MOD. 

[Model output discussion - the beast arrives]

35 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Indeed. They think further bands of snow could follow on Sat. Perhaps MOGREPS and UKV are showing this?

 

Amber now here. I said yesterday that MOGS must have been been sniffing something. 

[Model output discussion - the beast arrives]

22 minutes ago, Ruzzi said:

This may aswell be named the Friday low thread. Great discussion ... back to the regionals then ?

Charts like these on the doorstep... imagine the windchill from that. Plus anywhere that catches the showers, it's going to be blowing like crazy in the strength of that wind 

 

It’s model output discussion. The one thing on the fairly near time modelling that still has no real consistency or defined track is the Friday low. Of course it’s going to be discussed. ??‍♀️

[Model output discussion - the beast arrives]

8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

H Jemma it does make sense but be cautious when viewing those automated forecasts . 

As for the attention seeking low to the sw we still need more runs because it’s a complicated set up.

It’s always a difficult juggling act for the outputs to work out the forcing from the north and the north ne movement of the low from the south .

50 to 100 miles either way can make quite a difference in terms of ground conditions.

 

Always read them with a pinch of salt sweet. Just thought it might help some with the dismay xx

[Model output discussion - the beast arrives]

13 minutes ago, DonnaThw said:

Is storm Emma the same warm weather system due on Thursday/Friday or something completely different please

Same but Met Portugal has named the storm hence confusion as we already had our E - Eleanor

[Model output discussion - the beast arrives]

I know this isn’t model specific but it is relevant to anyone dismaying about the events Thurs and Fri based on current output. 

I checked MetO for Swindon at 9pm or so and there was intermittent snow showing late Thurs and a bit of Fri. That’s now changed again to constant snow late Thurs, all of Fri and into Sat AM. 

To me this is a pretty clear indictation that, whatever the big 3 are spilling out, MOGREPS must be showing something else or a more favoured track of that low.

Hope that makes sense

 

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

Ohhhh... so that’s how showers work ??

[Kindness in the cold]

Bumping as a reminder

[Model output discussion - here comes the beast!]

57 minutes ago, kev238 said:

The low from the south will vary from run to run . It does seem highly likely there will be a low coming up from that direction but it shape and orientation and northern extent will alter and this will dramatically impact on the potential surface conditions . 

Exactly this... and it’s not just blind hope because I’m SW (though *just* north of the M4 and almost in a sort of no mans land with location as we’re at the edge of a few here in Swindon though technically SW). 

That northern block is so strong, I would be surprised to see it breakdown the cold just like that. 

I am a glass half full kinda girl anyway but what I see is a low that promises significant snowfall towards the end of next week. Sure, I expect it to affect the U.K. but not necessarily in the way it shows right now. In any other set up we’d be laughing at a low expected to hold the exact track modelled 6 days out. There’s no reason to think any different just because it seems like a “sod’s law” chance to scupper chances of snow for some.

Have some faith guys. Also... we’re about to enter something we’ve all been after each winter for years. Enjoy what’s coming, we all know that where snow is concerned it can all change in 24 hrs so enjoy this phenomenal model watching and what it brings. Worry about the end of next week nearer the time.

Happy Saturday xx

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25 minutes ago, Nights King said:

Once your on fb you can poke her too 

 

Oi! Cheeky

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Ooh ooh, can I be added to a Facebook group too? I’m Jemma Croton

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What are people’s current estimations of snow in the SW from this?

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7 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

Really got quite nippy this afternoon already 

Afternoon? It’s 11:21 ?

[Kindness in the cold]

8 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

That's a worry for me as well - the number of homeless people in Norwich seems to have increased sunstantially over this past few years.  As a wheelchair user, I may find it awkward getting out of the house much if we do get substantial snowfalls, my parents, though older, should be able to get round tthe village OK.

Wiltshire already have their SWEP in place to provide shelter and streetlink is a great site to use to alert authorities of anyone homeless so they can send someone to take them to a shelter