[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:

A few 20cm figures South of the M4 around the Swindon area, and also some 20cm obviously in Wales, Cotswolds, Salisbury Plain etc

For real? AWESOME

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

2 minutes ago, wiltshire weather said:

Looking at the latest HIRLAM run, it seems to have it about right for the current time:

Assuming it continues to be about right, this is what should be on the ground tomorrow morning:

 

Oooh niiiiice

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

On drive back from getting kids from school I could see there was definitely snow on the hills out towards Liddington direction. 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

I know, I know. Now casting etc. But for Swindon we’ve seen downgrades alL day so far from heavy snow to just light from 7pm for 12 hrs and now it’s jumped back to this... taking the snow righty through to tomorrow afternoon continuous  

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

If MetO were to update their warnings again today what sort of time would they do that? I’ve onlt ever noticed them doing updates between roughly 10-11am but see on other threads people are mentioning the expect the amber warning to get further extended. I don’t think I’ve ever noticed it change later in the day before 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

So hopeful we’ll get some decent snow in Swindon.

I have ASD with sensory issues and I’ve never experienced silence quite like when you go out early after a fresh heavy snowfall. All surfaces coated, no-one out, quiet roads and the snow seems to absorb all the other natural sounds in the environment. I’m constantly being overloaded with noise even down to the hum of electricity... I get so much peace from snow

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

Spitting in Swindon. Not sure on the temp but it has definitely dropped since I left the house at midday

[Model banter returns]

10 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

are you on the wine at the moment

Alas no. 2/3 kids went back to school today. 2/3 kids have been puking since 9pm. I’m up and down like a yo-yo dealing with puke-maggedons. Mistakenly brought one to my bed thinking it was a one off... back to school nerves kind of thing. So now my bed is trashed in puke and my mission for the night is to try and prevent them trashing their own beds with vomit when even at ages 6 & 8 they can’t seem to aim it in a sick bowl.

So no... not on the wine. Bloody wish I was though

Ohh if only this happened on a school snow day instead of first day back (trying to make it semi relevant for the thread). Woo snow... much excite/many happy. Models do cold stuff etc

[Model banter returns]

Nowt tastes better than wine when you’ve stuck them out in the snow to chill some. Adds magic to that there wine it does!!

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

1 hour ago, weirpig said:

Its been a long time since these kind of charts have been seen so apologises   but direct hit for the uk

Oh now see... that’s just beautiful 

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

36 minutes ago, kumquat said:

Cheeky Channel Low

Ohh now that’s beautiful

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

Reminder again that at this exact stage in Feb the models flipped from showing the jackpot to us not getting anything one day/one run to the next. 

Stay calm guys. Will be a good few days yet before the models have a grip on the SSW fully

 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

This is a bit OT but after the stonking charts last night I want to just remind everyone what happened last year in the lead up to the BFTE. Last year because it’s most recent but those who aren’t new will know this is pretty standard while the models get a grip on a SSW.

SSW happened. Models took a while to show any response. For a while it looked bleak.

Then models started to show a BEAUTIFUL response... 

Then literally one run/one day to the next the response would TOTALLY DISAPPEAR/DOWNGRADE.

and then appear again.

and disappear

and appear again.

I want to make a dirty innuendo but I’ll just allude to one instead.

 

My point is. Expect the next week to be a bloody rollercoaster and for hope to feel snatched away and then given back repeatedly.

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

1 hour ago, SJ NM said:

All this excitement about the latest charts, but from my (albeit inexpert) point of view I se no difference.  All I see is more promise in FI but again, within the 240 hr time frame it's as you were.

Do you also stand outside Santa’s grottos handing kids notes that say Santa isn’t real???

Seriously though the excitement is justified because while yes these are FI charts... they are in the right frame of time and the right response to be an entirely plausible and “jackpot” response to the SSW. Rather than it being pie in the sky charts to lust over this is a situation where these are the expected charts to give the money shot and almost dead on when it comes to trop responses. 

These aren’t just yet more 240+ exciting charts

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

Can no-one remember model watching end of Jan this year? The SSW happened and it was major. The main models did not get reliably on board until maybe a week later showing the trop response.

Even when the SSW has occurred it seems models still struggle to know what to do with it. We had a week or so in Feb thinking this would be a SSW that didn’t produce the goods and then all the models came on board and we had ridonkulus snow end of Feb and into March.

I mean it’s what... 70% of split SSW that give us the good stuff historically so of course there’s more than a bit of a chance this one will sit in the yucky 30% we don’t like to talk about... but we also all know that even the winters that HAVE gone in to be a jackpot... the models have struggled to forecast the trop result at this stage.

By all means don’t count your chickens yet... but also don’t throw the eggs out yet assuming they are all duds yeah??!!

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

27 minutes ago, Nick F said:

SSW Wind Reversal (10mb/60N) around 31/12 to 01/01 according to GEFS.

Split in the next 10 days, perhaps starting as early as day 7/8 (4th Jan onwards)

 

 

28 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Yes!

Spv already displaced and will be split at 10 hpa by jan 4th ....SSW due 31st/1st  .....the question is how long will downwelling take and whether it will affect the trop 

Well colour me happy with that news. 

As much as I bloody LOVE following the charts this time of year it’s so hard to catch up after a few weeks off. 

Thanks for the responses folks

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

Guys I’ve been away over Christmas and cannot catch up properly. Can I get a status on the SSW. Displacement or split anticipated?

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

11 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

looks like only a topper i’m afraid,turning very much milder again after next Sunday according to the latest bbc forecast.They have extra model data i presume to come to that conclusion ,over a week away ?

As far as I’m aware they stopped using MEtO last year and so don’t have access to MOGREPS etc anymore but may have replaced with their own? 

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

What I wouldn’t give to be seeing this in a months time

Still, it’s nice to jump back into snow watch with my fellow coldies this early in the season. (Hope you’ve had a good summer guys, it’s good to be back in good company).

Looks like we have plenty of reloads being suggested and I’m crossing everything that this gives us a better early chance at the white stuff in a few weeks time

[Model Output Discussion - Autumn 2018]

Gorgeous outlook for the week ahead. Who doesn’t love a good anticyclonic set up? Blinding start to the season

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

Might not be very warm here yet but what a change it makes to wake up and see blue skies and the sun streaming in. I feel like I’m betraying my winter loving heart

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

We enjoyed a nice trek to the supermarket.  Pulled the babes here on the sled and then the shopping home in it. Got some enviable looks from people wading through the snow with laden arms. My crazy kids wanted lollies in the way home too ?

[2018 best compared to which historical event?]

Before this snow/cold weather event arrived there were lots of posts comparing the possible outcome to be like 1991, 2009, 2010 etc.

Appreciate it hasn’t ended yet but I though it would be an interesting discussion to look back at it and see what big historical snow event 2018 has compared to

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

? how rude lol

Get your mind out of the gutter Karlos ?

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards]

Can anyone in Brixham area confirm if that funnel/tornado is legit?

Also, managed to sweet talk more precise locations of potential freeIng rain from Aidan “I’d do him” McGivern