Jemma Croton

February 21, 2018

I hope I’m posting this in the right place.

Can I put out a plea to you all?

As you probably all know now we have extreme cold set to invade our wet and windy island(s) next week.

I’m not teaching you guys to suck eggs, but for anyone reading that isn’t part of the community; based on current runs temperatures will struggle to get above freezing for a prolonged period. Add in wind chill and some days we’re seeing temps as low as -16 in places. Snow will also be a very real hazard potentially nationwide and due to the longevity of the cold incursion ice could forming anywhere but especially on top of snow (or even worse, compacted snow).

With that in mind can I implore you to do all you can to help the vulnerable and needy in between sledding, snowball fights and Olaf building.

The elderly may struggle to venture out, mothers may not be able to use their prams to leave their home, those with physical disabilities or mobility issues may be unable to (or fearful to) get out and about, some may not drive or live near a shop to get essentials etc etc

You can help those in need and here are some suggestions:
♦️Help clear a neighbours path for them
♦️Use public grit boxes to grit your local area where gritters do not venture
♦️Cook extra at dinner and take it to someone in need
♦️Pick up shopping for anyone stranded at home
♦️Offer company to anyone who can’t get out and is isolated
♦️ Offer to take a neighbours children out with you if there are restrictions preventing their guardians doing so.

The list could be endless, those are just a few ideas that could really help others through the cold.

The other extremely vulnerable demographic are the homeless.

Homeless people die in cold weather every winter but clearly the (potentially) biggest cold spell since 2010 or perhaps longer is going to have the potential to claim more lives of the homeless.

♦️Check your local council for any procedures for alerting them to a homeless person at risk: Many towns and cities have homeless shelters and may be able to send someone out to speak to them.
♦️Consider purchasing warm socks, hats and gloves for any homeless you see. These can be picked up so cheap in Primark etc.
♦️ Rummage your wardrobes and see what warm clothes you have to donate. Ask for friends and family the same.
♦️Donate any spares coats and shoes you have
♦️Donate any spare blankets you may have

➖You could deliver these in person or call your local shelters and find out what they are in need of➖
♦️If you see a homeless person, consider buying them a warm drink and something to eat. It would probably mean so much if you actually took them somewhere warm to eat with your company but a warm pastry or take out food would also do.

Again this list could be endless, I’m just trying to give some examples.

Please remember those who are vulnerable during this cold snap and endeavour to help them in any way you can. (This advice should apply all year round really but is extra important we take care of each other in situations that may put others at risk)

February 21, 2018

I understand why emotions are so high after years and years of backtracking. We’re all hoping for this insane cold spell but let’s be honest, there wasn’t much room for improvement from some runs the past couple of days and some wataering down is to be expected.

I think the problem isn’t just on the recent run(s) but people assuming this is the first step in it all crumbling away. After all, that’s what usually happens.

But, take a step back and we still have models showing the best chance of snow and deep cold for years. That still has cross model agreement regardless of the specifics of time or potential inches.

Remember last week when we had massive swings from early spring on a set of runs and then back to the set of Frozen in the same 24 hrs. We pulled it back from that and the cold is getting closer by the day.

Come on guys. Don’t be downcast or bickery. We have cold coming... and glorious snow. Take that frustration and uh... ?Let It Go? (Sorry, couldn't resist)

February 20, 2018

Totally set my alarm just to check the 00Z. This is just insane stuff. I am shooketh

February 19, 2018

WOAH, WOAH, WOAH GUYS.

I have NEVER seen a chart quite like this one... hold onto your pants... the Polar Vortex has only gone and turned FULL LOBSTER ??

February 15, 2018

I’m so out of the loop right now. Trust half term to fall on prime model watching week.

Can some one sum up the past few days runs to me to save me having to read pages on the MOD thread?

February 12, 2018

I put out a tweet to Ian Ferguson. He’s replied they are looking around the 18th still to see effects. Plus this from MV gives hope

February 12, 2018

Jesus. Even I need a shot of Kraken with the models this morning. Dismal viewing. Lucky I have blind hope that things will change for the better the next few days, this is more tense than some choice episodes of Breaking Bad.

February 11, 2018

1 hour ago, starstream said:

While March 2013 was not snowy in my neck of the woods, it was savagely cold.

i remember many times walking and having to come home early as the cold wind made my asthma kick off .

the lack of white stuff didn't make it less interesting for me as a coldie.

what was amazing, was when the weather turned into normal spring temps, and the blossom and green almost happened overnight.

it really was special to witness .

Ugh. I forget how mean the cold, dry air is for us asthmatics. I have type 1 Brittle asthma which is nasty but better since I was moved to Symicort turbohaler. It’s an expensive drug so sometimes hard to get prescribed (I had to have a very nasty attack and hospital stay to get it) but it’s really good. Might be an option to help you with the cold.

In regards to the weather for this month, I’m staying irritatingly optimistic. We’ve seen the models get it wrong time and time again and my snow starved self HAS to believe that the ECM has it wrong these past few runs. I need it to be wrong. It’s been one heck of a crappy winter (for other reasons besides weather) and snowmaggedon would be it’s one redeeming quality. So yes, optimistic.

February 11, 2018

4 minutes ago, snowice said:

Yes but we have been here before ecm now UKmo Gfs backing away not a good trend!

We have. I’ve sat through it all painfully year after year but this situation is markedly different. We know that this SSW is happening and, not only that, it’s set to last 10 bloody days. This is phenomenal stuff and there’s no reason right now to throw in the towel. Come on... cheer up Charlie etc xx

February 11, 2018

Guys. Come on. The models are topsy turvy and swinging one way to the other but don’t get disheartened yet. The SSW isn’t underway yet and until it is I don’t think any models will have a proper handle on how things might progress. Ride it out and wait for the runs tomorrow onwards xx

February 10, 2018

For anyone bummed out with the flipping and flopping in output just now. The SSW isn’t underway until tomorrow so it certainly doesn’t surprise me that the models can’t decide what to put out. I should imagine that runs from maybe the 18Z tomorrow but certainly 00Z/06Z Monday will start giving a clearer picture once the SSW is actually underway.

Take the charts today and early tomorrow with a shot of tequila (I recommend with cinnamon and orange over salt and lemon) . Yes, there will be the doom-sayers lauding each less favourable run over us but until that SSW (and remember this is a pretty spectacular looking SSW) is underway, don’t let them rain on your parade.

Stay strong snow squad ??❄️

February 10, 2018

56 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

No, it was never the 15th. It has always been around the 18th/19th. The SSW only kicks off on the 12th, give it a chance.

Actually Dr A Butler posted out on twitter showing a VQTR with effects showing from the 15th. This was a few days ago but the 15th date expectation isn’t without foundation

February 9, 2018

I’m utterly in awe of the models this eve after the dubious showing from the previous 2 runs. In 2 days time the SSW will have kicked in and we’ll (hopefully) have a bit of a clearer picture for how next week and onwards might go.

If this all verifies I will have to get an adult Elsa costume and float around yelling “the cold never bothered me anyway” while those fools that are fed up with the cold grumble and grouse.

February 7, 2018

2 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Evening All

Ice Cold hope your still with us ....

So the much touted SSW is coming into view & here’s my thoughts + timelines of when / where to expect it...

We have seen lots of posts & comments on it - but whats the reality likely to be -???

The Omni present warming in the GFS charts is usually due to the model & its poorer vertical resolution V the ECM, as a result there is an over reaction / over estimation of how much a warming is going to impact the zonal wind @10MB - so because of this 'bias' when viewing the mid / long term outputs churned out by the GFS we have to be a little on the sceptical side as these are normally moderated & scaled down even wiped out !

However we have now seen the evidence in the Berlin site that a downwelling SSW event will make it to the 10MB level & indeed go on to challenge the date record for the time lf year-

( this is NOT the same as the usual deceleration of the zonal wind we see at this time of year as that is more of a gentle reduction all the way to mid april when the vortex breaks its annual westerly influence )

So as highlighted we have passed the point of no return in the stratospheric modelling where a SSW is now just 5 days away for the 12th Feb *** Take note of this date --

The plots below show steep downward curve of a signature warming

Note the main black line being Climo - but the ensemble mean from the GFS running out at mid -20 to -30 M/S...

The clustering is quite close - further backed up by the another illustration of the ensembles from the hannah attard site

With the mean bottoming out at -32M/S

*The date record for this time is ~ -17 M/S

& the all time record low ( using Merra data ) is -35 M/S

The ECM berlin forecast below is not as bullish as the GFS coming out around -17 M/S @10MB but none the less still classed as significant event...

So what we have in modelling terms of a SSW due is

* The first one in 9 years ( I dont think last year was classed without checking )

* Possible record breaking reversal of tge zonal wind...

If your thinking whats best in terms of impacting the UK its simple- The lower the negative number the better... - record breaker ? yeah I will take that please... Why?...

The bigger the negative number the stronger the easterly flow is across the mid lattitudes. !! ( think feb 63 / jan 85 & so on )

Whats the models churning out then?

The SSWs are classed as 2 types

- Wave 1 displaced vortex or

- Wave 2 Split Vortex ..

This is whats expected -

A classic wave 2 Split vortex- with 2 clear areas of poleward flux - over the far East & canada-

Now luckily for me the historic SSWs have already been classified -we are looking for la nina years / W2 / split vortex-

6 years appear as matches

- 28 Jan 1963

- 7 Jan 1968

- 18 Jan 1971

- 1 Jan 1985

- 21 Feb 1989

- 24 Jan 2009

Below are the 10MB increase in temps at the time when the zonal wind hits 0M/S

Obviously they all have 1 thing in common- The huge rise in temps across the pole -

Now the Date of the zonal Mean hitting 0M/S isnt the day of peak blocking -

Looking at the dates above peak blocking appeared 7 - 11 days post Reversal - see below day 11 charts from the above warmings ( 500 MB anomaly )

Whats apparent is HLB is quite prevelent & most are centered ( for us ) around greenland & Western Scandi -

Also all 6 Splits have varying levels of troughing to the south - but all have an anomaly-

So that really leaves with a level of expectation that should at least give us some confidence for Feb over the following dates-

12 Febuary : is 'R' Day- as in the reversal of the 10MB zonal wind where the eastward progessional component is replaced by a westward one

13/14 Febuary : is peak 'R' days where we will know the magnitude of the warming & just how much westward ( reversal ) component there is - Sub -20 M/S is the date records & anything below is the jackpot -

16-18 Febuary - Mid to high lattitude transitioning - This is where depending on how lucky we are for our area we will see MLBs start migrating North to the pole as zonal wind lag filters through the lower layers of the atmosphere & support builds for HLB - look for the 3 key wave patterns ( atlantic / Scandi & pacific (-EPO)

The UK can get very cold in this period if the migrating highs are favourably positioned from the outset....

20-24 Feb - Peak HLB blocking across the NH - peak -AO signature & peak cold overall for the mid lattitudes ...

*** IF the GFS lands with the depth of negativity then Late Feb early march will be on a par with 2013 for AO negativity & possible / probable UK cold / snow....

if the negativity is watered down then the cold signature will be watered down & less dominent in western Europe...

Best

S

Bit off topic but... Marry me?

This was like weather porn ?

On a serious note, how refreshing is it to come here after a busy day to find reams of beautiful charts being shared and talked about with excitement rather than the bickering that’s been present the past few days or so.

I’m really amazed by some of what the models have shown tonight and the rather consistent agreement/expectation for a QTR.

I’m the resident weather nerd among my friends (both online and in real life) and spend winters model watching and then putting posts out with charts and explanations to try and help them people understand what is coming but also wording it in a way that hopefully helps them learn about the factors in play for weather on our (snow depreived) islands. I put rather a lot of time in and yet seems like I’m always the one of us that misses out. So desperate to get my payday. I might even do snow angels in a swimsuit if the weather gods give me reason to.

I can’t really say more than what you guys have already said on things. Brilliant synoptics and some really great posts today on it all.

You guys are awesome. Even the GFS is awesome right now!!

February 7, 2018

11 hours ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

This was being discussed by Blue army and Nick Sussex over in the mod thread about an hour ago, general consensus from them was 17th/18th Feb for cold effect to start being felt, which given that ECM goes out 10 days that we ought to see it showing some eye candy from tomorrow or Thursday. the Gfs going out longer is already showing glimpses in its extended modelling.

This is also backed up on Twitter by DrAB and Fergie who tweeted about a VQTR of 3 days on one run

February 6, 2018

As far as I can tell many (who know more than I) are expecting a very FTR. Dr Amy (Butler) posted yesterday (I think) on twitter showing a FTR of just 3 days from the SSW event. It’s worth bearing in mind when looking at the charts as clearly the MetO are picking this up as exceptionally fast (Fergie RT Dr AB post which just adds more weight to it in my eyes) right now and I’m not sure how well the models will handle things happening quite so quickly.

It’s certainly looking like a very exciting period of model watching continues and it’s great to see that despite downgrades happening and things today not giving us what was expected towards the end of last week, the models continue to keep giving us a reason to keep our eyes on the charts and that flicker of hope alive for those of us that live for this time of year.

I’m dreading spring. Don’t get me wrong, I love spring as a season. Everyday is a nature school day for the children and having the garden to get invested in and plants for them to grow is most welcome after the winter months. But doing all this, checking each run and poring over them 4 times a day gives me so much focus for my overactive mind and I really miss it when it’s gone. Tried getting into model watching at other times of year but it just doesn’t interest me.

So I’m extremely happy to continue having these excitIng Synoptics continue to feature for the foreseeable future.

February 6, 2018

Appreciate this isn’t strictly a weather model as it’s the rainfall radar but I’ve been tracking it since 4am with friends all over and is reliably falling as snow with the sleet consistently stopping as it comes inland.

Ironically there seem to be an additional band of snow (over Gloucester ish area on this SS) which from following it seems it’s residual PPN that came in from the SE yesterday, has hit the front from the west and reversed while organising itself into an additional front that wasn’t forecast. It’s ironic because that front is just creeping over me, definitely falling as snow and yet today is the first time it’s changed to say snow won’t happen today.

It’s a perfect example of how snow can pop up anywhere when the conditions are right.

February 5, 2018

4 hours ago, chionomaniac said:

It's no surprise that the vortex wants to have one last laugh. It's a bit like putting pressure on a balloon, as it distorts the strain builds until the moment it bursts.The wave two displaces each daughter vortex which stay strong, until the warming weakens them.

Just want to say that this is a really super analogy Chio. I used it to explain things to my son with autism and it made sense to him straight away. It’s a gift to be able to put things into terms even those withoutbthe additional knowledge can understand

February 5, 2018

Can I ask someone... anyone... a favour?

I should start my saying I have autism spectrum disorder and, while I am very high functioning and pretty intelligent, I often hit mental hurdles with some things which seem impossible to overcome.

I’m trying to look at the options for distance learning in meteorology but I’m just getting so overwhelmed every time I try and look and I’m basically hitting a major hurdle which is preventing me from continuing to search and finding answers.

Like the letters and descriptors are confusing me to buggery.

I’ll love anyone forever if they can link me to some relevant courses to investigate. This is to further my learning and hopefully getting a meaningful qualification in forecasting for the U.K. I don’t know if I would do anything with it but my son (who also has autism) has additional needs which aren’t compatible with my working right now and I would love to put my natural passion here to good use and have more qualifications under my belt.

February 3, 2018

In sorry, I’m still very much learning about SSW’s.

l know this is pie in the sky stuff but can those in the know give a basic (I won’t hold you to it) prediction as to how this one may effect us when it’s occuring so late in winter?

February 2, 2018

1 minute ago, snowray said:

Ohhh dear, woe on me, I mentioned the S words to some mates last night after a few pints in the pub, I just couldn't resist anymore. Nooooooooo!!!!

It's the beer that did it.

I’m worse. Put out a very public Facebook forecast ?

February 1, 2018

Tuesday is going to be bloody payday down here with snow by the looks of it. If the 18Z and 00Z continue this 9 run consistent trend then I am buying the kids a new sled tomorrow ?

February 1, 2018

Another blinding run. I’m keeping track and it’s now 8 solid runs supporting this prognosis with upgrades. I’d be very surprised if this doesn’t now verify

February 1, 2018

20 hours ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

Like I said give it 24 hours. Wait and see.

Good morning Walsall. Only 4 hrs and 1 run before you eat humble pie ?

February 1, 2018

27 minutes ago, Sneachtastorm said:

What does the purple area mean?

Nipples like bloody bullets is what it means.

i am seriously in awe of this 18Z run. I’m almost too scared to sleep in case I wake to see it’s all been undone. I’ve a feeling though that this night just be a pretty memorable period of weather (and indeed model watching) the past 36 hrs or so have been riveting to say the least

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