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Airedalejoe

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    Far north and northeast of England - regional chat

    in Regional

    Posted

    18 hours ago, Freezing-Point said:

    I have to say that this winter has been exceptional for the amount of snowfalls here, spread out from November to now March.  I have lost count.   None of them have been much depth here, with the maximum being 4" depth from Monday night.

    The amount of snowfalls from westerly approaching fronts has to be a record here.  Normally we get nothing this side of the pennines, but I have been surprised about 5 times this winter

    Also the amount of frosts must be up there with the most in the last 20 years.  

     

    Not kept any of this data.  Does anyone have any? 

     

    On 20/02/2018 at 07:09, Airedalejoe said:

    Sorry 4wd but you're on your own! 

    If the charts currently forecast are correct, I think we will get intense heavy snow showers and snow depths would be impressive!

    The only thing missing from this winter is a severe spell, we've had more ice/frost than most winters I remember and 6+ light snow 'covers'. Because of what may be coming combined with how consistently on the cold side it's been so far could make this a stand out winter for me.

    Fingers crossed!

    Said the same thing almost 2 weeks ago in the build up to this now exceptional spell.

    Without records but in my opinion this winter has seen the highest amount of frosts/ice in my memory, say 70's onwards. The winters with a severe 1 or 2 week spell such as 81/87/91/09/10 from memory, were just that with no great amount of frosty nights outside of the severe spells.

    I've never needed to de ice the car as much!

    Me and the lads have never had a winter with as many icy bike rides!

    Day's with double figure temps have been very few and far between, I've known winters with barely any frost and weeks and weeks of double digit day's.

    Unless my thermometer is wrong the general theme of below average temps has been going on since last June.

    Surprised you only saw 4", luckily we saw around double that with canny drifting too!

    • Like 2

    Far north and northeast of England - regional chat

    in Regional

    Posted

    1 hour ago, JP1972 said:

    Have you not noticed, he’s been like this for years. He seems to get some kind of perverse enjoyment out of seeing some people (not me I hasten to add) deflated by weather. He’s a bit weird to put it MILDLY, and he even has people on the MOD thread laughing at him with his bias towards certain weather types. You’ll notice that whenever cold weather arrives, he’s the only poster I’ve seen actively looking for milder weather to return ?

    Ouch, that's a bit harsh and to be fair he's not the only one to have a mild winter bias.

    There's another who now seems to spend most of his time in the Short range model discussion thread which means he seems to have disappeared from the MOD. Good news!

    • Like 1

    Far north and northeast of England - regional chat

    in Regional

    Posted

    13 minutes ago, NorthEastSnow said:

    I guess this chasing snow hobby is like supporting a football team. Wait 8 years for a promotion for you to be relegated every season after. 

    Its a shame that it maybe another 3/4/5 years till we see snow like this again. 

    Will this stop us coming in here each year? I doubt it. 

    Lol, I hope that you're right, it would be an indication that our climate is changing!

    The chances of seeing what we've just seen in the next 3-5 years are almost nil.

    So soon after '09 and '10 is a surprise. What you've just seen is exceptional, 2 day's of max temps of -3 and -4 with almost gale force winds and heavy snow showers? That's not normal UK climate.

    • Like 1

    Far north and northeast of England - regional chat

    in Regional

    Posted

    A morning of some intense mini blizzards earlier, just the odd flake now.

    Without doubt a historic event here, it is so rare to get temps several degrees below freezing, strong winds off the sea and heavy snow all at once!

    2010 had more snow but this beats it for the blizzards over several day's. 2013 pales in comparison.

    Coupled with the amount of ice and frost from October onwards and the 7/8 light snowfalls we've already had, winter 17/18 is right up there.

    After last summers crap temperatures too, it will be interesting to see whether summer 18 is as cool!

    Far north and northeast of England - regional chat

    in Regional

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, garylaverick said:

    We've got convection picking up off the coast of Aberdeen. The NMM had this modelled as being inland now so maybe a few hours ahead of itself.

    Screenshot_20180225-170641.png

    Yes been watching and they're definitely pepping up, also activity just off sw coast of Norway, can't workout what it's doing though I presume that's the really cold air starting to move towards us. 

    • Like 1

    Far north and northeast of England - regional chat

    in Regional

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, rdt123 said:

    Well my family have all just laughed at me for suggesting up to 20cm come Thursday. They all state their iPhones say light snow and apparently that’s just flurries and it won’t happen. We shall see !

    I'd be surprised if the majority don't exceed that.

    If these charts and possibilities don't get you excited you need a different hobby. The potential is huge and this coming week may not be repeated for a very long time.

    If you aren't quite sure what the north sea snow machine can produce you are either new to this or haven't been paying attention.

    Maybe!

    • Like 1

    Far north and northeast of England - regional chat

    in Regional

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, NickR said:

    From my amateur view I understand the GFS to be similar to previous runs. ECM looks less progressive. We would still get some frontal stuff but the Midlands and SW would get a real pasting before that.

    I'd prefer we don't get affected by the low moving up from the south west as we may then get the milder air come next weekend. Keep it to the south of us and we'll continue with heavy snow blizzards off the north sea, they will compare with whatever comes from the low pressure. Less risk for still a big reward!

    • Like 1

    Far north and northeast of England - regional chat

    in Regional

    Posted

    2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

    I'm normally in the NW thread, but given the expected weather in the days ahead, it seems apt that I stick to this thread, far north includes Cumbria anyway.

    The long drawn nature of the easterly and the strength of the wind should help to drive precipitation across the Pennines deep into Cumbria. Last time we had a snowy easterly was late March 2013, but on this occasion air temps will be lower, less solar energy as well, so snow should fall down to sea level and stick despite the sunshine trying its best to thaw.

    Already today, the ground is hard still out of the sun, and we have temps nudging 5 degrees. 

    I'm hoping for a 26 Jan/27 Jan 1996 event when we managed 5 inches as a frontal/trough feature moved east-west. The synoptical build up mirrors late Jan 96 in many respects, but I think this one will be even colder!

    Lots to look forward too, could be a memorable spell, that is talked about for a long time to come, held in similiar regard to March 2013 -but that was very exceptional, given the depth of cold that occurred at such a stage in the year, late Feb and early March has produced some notably very cold weather even in recent years, and sometimes the coldest weather of the year, a bit like early Sept delivering very warm heatwave type conditions. It also reemphasises the point that easterlies and northerlies become far more likely from mid Feb through until May, than at any other time of the year.

    Everyone talks about March 13 but I cant remember anything about it being unusual, not sure if that's my age or the fact it missed my area!

    The worst conditions I have ever seen here is a couple of weeks later than now in I think March 1979, huge drifts and many places cut off. 

    I think that this is heading for a once in a lifetime event, eclipsing the ones you quote as well as '09 and '10!

    Far north and northeast of England - regional chat

    in Regional

    Posted

    Sorry 4wd but you're on your own! 

    If the charts currently forecast are correct, I think we will get intense heavy snow showers and snow depths would be impressive!

    The only thing missing from this winter is a severe spell, we've had more ice/frost than most winters I remember and 6+ light snow 'covers'. Because of what may be coming combined with how consistently on the cold side it's been so far could make this a stand out winter for me.

    Fingers crossed!

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion - mid January

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, offerman said:

    Excellent post. And thats what i just cant understand . They dont seem to have an equivalent of an azores high that permanently buggers up their winters. Winter after winter now in the US seems to be so frigid ......

    Until the azores high retreats south or far west to allow northerlies incursion or to drift up and above us i just cant see how any cold can develop. once again all the recent euphoria has yet again been nullified. 

     

    Just ignore these longer range charts and you'll now be disappointed, i know as i used to do the same as so many on here and took too much notice of all the blue deep cold in F! that so so so rarely panned out. Wait until better verification nearer in... 3-4 days and even then that can still swing wildly .....  

    It's easy to understand, just read up on winter climate of northern United states and Canada compared to the U.K. Vastly different, always has been.

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

    Just to cheer you all up, at least those who are looking beyond a week ahead the 500 mb anomalies, well ECMWF-GFS this morning, are not good reading if you want deep cold.

    For a couple of days all 3 had gone with the idea of some kind of 500 mb ridge from the Azores well into Greenland, NOAA last evening still does even in the 8-14 day mean chart. Not so the other two this morning although whether the charts shown below are a major shift or just a temporary hiccup will not be known for another 24-48 hours.

    Why not enjoy the cold now and for the rest of this week. Some down the eastern side, even on low ground, will see the odd passing sleet/snow shower and high ground is likely to see a temporary covering. Frost for many. Just what is expected in late November early December by some of you?

    Links below

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

    http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

    A voice of sanity! Currently watching large wet snowflakes falling, It's the UK, end of November, it's cold for the time of year, it's how our winters are!

    I'd love another this day in 2010 repeat but we'll have to be lucky as severe spells like that don't roll round every 7 or so years.

    For me it appears that recently weather patterns seem to become stuck in ruts for our part of the world and the one we're in is high pressure to the west. The current one may not give up quite as easily as advertised this morning and we may get lucky but don't necessarily expect to be skating on frozen rivers))

    • Like 1
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