Chesil View

Nothing in the det runs to get coldies hearts racing this morning. Plenty of winter still to go though. So let's hope the favourable background signals begin to force the pattern in the not to distant future. Because its pretty much business as usual at the moment with stubborn euro and azores hieghts dictating play at the moment. As mentioned the other day xmas does tend to create a false jeopardy in terms of hoping to get cold/snow in early but its always worth remembering that as a whole it is in the main Jan and Feb that have produced the goods far more than December over the last 150 years or so.

Still no cross model resolution for xmas day I see. Fine margins making big differences.

Christmas always creates a false jeopardy in our model watching hobby. Hopes of wintry weather on the big day raised and dashed many times. But I agree with Catacol take away that false jeopardy of xmas and there is plenty still to watch for over the coming weeks. In the the want it now, get tomorrow age of Amazon. That unpopular thing called patience is required to see us reap the benefits of background signal that remain favourable for wintry weather as we move forward.

Interesting little feature runs from western N. Ireland to Paris on the gfs 06z around 240 /264

The slower evolution of the ecm towards the gfs /gem outcome around Xmas continues.

Lots of frustration and gnashing of teeth in here tonight but in reality to me the Ecm simply looks like a slightly slower evolution of the gfs run to me

That is the nature of most early winter seasons for much of the southern half of the UK. Especially so in southern and southwestern England. Unfortunately true winter weather isn't like Amazon . Where if you want it you can get it tomorrow.

ECM does look poised for an Xmas Northerly at 240. All a bit far away to be too confident just yet, but a possible step in the right for coldies.

Excellent post Catacol and a clear eyed view of the current situation. Earlier posts from yourself and others with good knowledge of global drivers also stated that the speed of the wave could be slower so the timing of a change to conditions conducive to northern blocking might be after Xmas or towards/around New Year. A white Xmas would have been nice but they are rare enough away from Northern High ground as it is. For my part here in Dorset I have already seen falling snow and a sub freezing 24 hour period. Which is already better than most pre Christmas periods in my corner of the world. So I'm ahead in the game called winter. But in any winter I would happily pass up a white Xmas for a sustained cold and snowy spell in Jan or Feb or both. Lol. Forecasting mild to win out in the winter here in the UK is not really forecasting anything its really just quoting climatology and there is nothing particularly clever or taxing in doing that. The real skill is in taking time to understand the global background drivers . Strat etc and pointing out when those appear to be combining to provide something different from said climatology ( ie harsh cold and/or snow.) Keep up your posts Catacol because you and the other knowledgeable posters mentioned in Snowking's post back up the thread along with others' vastly help us increase our knowledge and understanding of the subject that we all love.

It does look that way Nick. Unfortunately xmas always creates a sense of romantic urgency if cold charts appear around that period on the models as they did a few days back. Overall though I feel the back ground signals are still putting us in a in a good place going forward for getting some wintry weather. Just looking less likely it will come by Christmas.

Ecm just looks like a slower evolution to me. The last few frames of the Ecm suggest the vortex lobe over Canada to be moving east as per gfs.

Even as an ardent cold and snow lover. I would be the first to admit that the det nwp has moved somewhat away from the UK wide wintry out look for xmas day that was suggested a day or so back. For what its worth here are my thoughts. Firstly xmas day is still at 336 hours 14 days away. Do we completely trust any chart at 336hrs. No we don't. Secondly some of the forecast changes in the drivers that could produce wintry interest in the xmas period are still to happen.. Thirdly pretty much every cold spell I can recall in 25 years of modelling watching ( barring Dec 2010) that has been picked up at distance by the gfs has waxed and waned in the nwp as it has approached.Forum veterans may remember the famous Ian Brown wtf moment in I think 2013 for instance. Fourthly from a more philosophical point of view if I offered you a decent two week cold and snowy spell starting at new year at the cost of a so so near miss xmas. I'm pretty sure most forum members of a wintry persuasion would pull my arm off. Fifth regardless of what happens at xmas or even new year. The winter is primed driverwise to be backloaded anyway So stay calm and let the drivers do their thing.

In my humble opinion. This is probably most sensible post of the day.

The direction of travel does suggest that it actually could with the euro high being sucked west by the high pressure on the western seaboard as per some of the gfs runs in that extended 19th-23rd period

The 12z ecm control Dennis showed is for the 23rd Dec. The 0z det run you've shown is for the 19th.

Because the Met never commit to anything especially at long distance unless they see it as at least 80 percent likely.

I wouldn't expect it to be jumping on the cold bandwagon yet. They're never going to commit to something at 14 days without a much stronger signal. The extended still has the option for a cold spell with wintry hazards which show they know that there are drivers that could suggest that. I wouldn't expect much to change in their text for another week or so until they can see if the mjo signal is moving with enough amplitude to suggest retorgression and a strong block to our northwest/North etc. They're certainly not going to change it yet off the back of a few promising gfs runs.

I alluded to this last week as well Catacol. It couldn't could it? 61 years on.

Excellent gfs 0z. Ecm I think will get there as well just a day or two slower on the evolution. Ecm does still have the pv fragmenting that will create the space for our high to move north/northwest/northeast

Things building up nicely towards Xmas eve on the 0z gfs.

The last three frames of the Northern hemisphere view of the 12z ecm to my eye give an inkling of how the progression from there might go forward in a not too dissimilar fashion to the gfs 06z.

It is only the cfs but speaking as some one who views its regularly not for its immediate accuracy but for possible trends. It has been showing Christmas blocking charts on a regular basis throughout the autumn. So you never know this could be one of those rare occasions when it gets it right as it did with beast from the east in 2018 where it regularly showed a cold end to Feb and start to march from Early November onwards.

Everything pretty much on line with what the background drivers would suggest this morning and overnight with zny amplification being held back to very late in gfs runs etc. 18z a prime example. Around final third of Dec for any meaningful change to the Atlantic driven much we whave to put up with for a wrkk and a half or so.

Indeed so Catacol. 16th is the very earliest I,d be expecting to see anything worthwhile. An outer early marker as you suggest.

Last year the background drivers were not helpful in stopping the Atlantic once it came back in. La nina and westerly qbo. This year's global set up is much more conducive to making the Atlantic incursion a relatively brief affair as the likes of Catacol. MattH and Blue army amongst others have articulated so well..